Monthly Archives: November 2013

Ranking Scoring Offenses and Defenses Better – ACC Edition

Below are the expected points scored and given up percentages for ACC teams through 11/7/13.

For the full explanation, please read the original post.

SCORING OFFENSE

TEAM % OF EXPECTED POINTS FOR
1 Florida St 182%
2 Clemson 142%
3 Miami 138%
4 Georgia Tech 115%
5 Duke 112%
6 Boston College 111%
7 UNC 105%
8 Pitt 96%
9 NC St 93%
10 Maryland 89%
11 Syracuse 86%
12 Virginia Tech 83%
13 Virginia 76%
14 Wake Forest 66%

SCORING DEFENSE

TEAM % OF EXPECTED POINTS AGAINST
1 Florida St 51%
2 Virginia Tech 59%
3 Clemson 80%
4 Wake Forest 83%
5 Georgia Tech 83%
6 Miami 87%
7 Pitt 91%
8 NC St 96%
9 UNC 98%
10 Boston College 102%
11 Syracuse 106%
12 Duke 107%
13 Virginia 109%
14 Maryland 110%

COMBINED DIFFERENCE

TEAM COMBINED DIFFERENCE
1 Florida St 131%
2 Clemson 61%
3 Miami 50%
4 Georgia Tech 31%
5 Virginia Tech 24%
6 Boston College 9%
7 UNC 7%
8 Duke 5%
9 Pitt 4%
10 NC St -3%
11 Wake Forest -17%
12 Syracuse -21%
13 Maryland -22%
14 Virginia -33%

CONFERENCE AVERAGES

Avg Off Exp Pts % Avg Def Exp Pts % Avg Diff
Conference 107% 90% 16%
Atlantic Division 110% 90% 20%
Coastal Division 104% 91% 13%
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Week 11 Picks

UPDATE: In light of new data, I am amending my K-State/Texas Tech pick. I am now predicting an upset of Texas Tech for the third week in a row.

I was one game away from a perfect set of picks last week. Boston College went and pitched an upset that I didn’t pick and ruined my perfect game.

This week I didn’t pick any upsets, but the Virginia Tech/Miami and K-State/Texas Tech games could prove to be some. Those are almost toss-ups so I went with the home teams (Miami and Texas Tech).

Last week: 22-1 (.957). Overall: 182-38 (.827)

Picks in BOLD.

No. 13 LSU at No. 1 ALABAMA
No. 2 FLORIDA STATE at Wake Forest
No. 3 OREGON at No. 5 Stanford
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 6 BAYLOR
No. 8 MISSOURI at Kentucky
No. 9 AUBURN at Tennessee
Virginia Tech at No. 11 MIAMI (FL)
Kansas at No. 14 OKLAHOMA STATE
Mississippi State at No. 15 TEXAS A&M
No. 16 FRESNO STATE at Wyoming
No. 19 UCLA at Arizona
No. 20 LOUISVILLE at Connecticut
Houston at No. 21 UCF
No. 22 ARIZONA STATE at Utah
No. 23 NOTRE DAME at Pittsburgh
Brigham Young at No. 24 WISCONSIN
KANSAS STATE at No. 25 Texas Tech
Arkansas at OLE MISS
Colorado at WASHINGTON
Nebraska at MICHIGAN
North Carolina State at DUKE
Penn State at MINNESOTA
TEXAS at West Virginia
Troy at LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
USC at California

Ranking Scoring Offenses and Defenses Better – SEC Edition

Below are the expected points scored and given up percentages for SEC teams through 11/6/13. The offensive numbers represent the percentage of points scored on average compared to the average number of points a team’s opponents have given up. The defensive numbers represent the percentage of points given up compared to the average number of points scored by a team’s opponent. It’s an attempt to look not just at the number of points a team averages on offense and defense, but to also take into account the quality of the opponent those points were scored against or given up to.

The combined difference combines both percentages for an overall team scoring statistic.

For the full explanations, please read the original post.

SCORING OFFENSE

TEAM % OF EXPECTED POINTS FOR
1 Texas A&M 160%
2 Georgia 143%
3 LSU 141%
4 Alabama 136%
5 Missouri 132%
6 Ole Miss 123%
7 Auburn 116%
8 South Carolina 114%
9 Vanderbilt 106%
10 Tennessee 102%
11 Mississippi St 98%
12 Kentucky 98%
13 Florida 76%
14 Arkansas 72%

SCORING DEFENSE

TEAM % OF EXPECTED POINTS AGAINST
1 Alabama 37%
2 Florida 58%
3 Missouri 73%
4 Auburn 76%
5 South Carolina 79%
6 Ole Miss 79%
7 Mississippi St 85%
8 LSU 85%
9 Tennessee 95%
10 Texas A&M 98%
11 Georgia 99%
12 Arkansas 103%
13 Kentucky 104%
14 Vanderbilt 108%

COMBINED DIFFERENCE

TEAM COMBINED DIFFERENCE
1 Alabama 99%
2 Texas A&M 62%
3 Missouri 59%
4 LSU 56%
5 Georgia 44%
6 Ole Miss 44%
7 Auburn 40%
8 South Carolina 35%
9 Florida 19%
10 Mississippi St 14%
11 Tennessee 7%
12 Vanderbilt -2%
13 Kentucky -6%
14 Arkansas -31%

Updated Scoring Offenses and Defenses by Percentage of Expected Points (Pac-12)

I went back through the data and removed all games against DI-AA teams and I feel like that paints a more accurate picture. Here are the updated results. For the explanations of what this is, please read the original post.

SCORING OFFENSE

TEAM % OF EXPECTED POINTS FOR
1 Arizona St 170%
2 Oregon 156%
3 Utah 118%
4 Arizona 114%
5 Oregon St 114%
6 UCLA 112%
7 Washington 112%
8 Stanford 111%
9 Washington St 98%
10 USC 91%
11 Colorado 83%
12 Cal 83%

SCORING DEFENSE

TEAM % OF EXPECTED POINTS AGAINST
1 Stanford 60%
2 USC 62%
3 Oregon 73%
4 UCLA 74%
5 Washington 75%
6 Utah 86%
7 Arizona 88%
8 Oregon St 95%
9 Arizona St 102%
10 Washington St 107%
11 Colorado 108%
12 Cal 124%

COMBINED DIFFERENCE

TEAM COMBINED DIFFERENCE
1 Oregon 83%
2 Arizona St 69%
3 Stanford 51%
4 UCLA 38%
5 Washington 37%
6 Utah 32%
7 USC 28%
8 Arizona 26%
9 Oregon St 19%
10 Washington St -9%
11 Colorado -25%
12 Cal -41%