Monthly Archives: November 2014

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 14 Picks

Last week‘s results: 37-16 (.698), upset picks: 3-5 (.375)
Overall: 468-176 (.727), upset picks: 27-47 (.365)

Upset Pick of the Week

#19 OLE MISS over #4 Mississippi St.

Upset Picks

#13 Arizona St. over #11 Arizona
ARKANSAS over #17 Missouri
NEBRASKA over Iowa
VIRGINIA TECH over Virginia
IDAHO over Appalachian St.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE over UTEP
HAWAI’I over Fresno St.

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in ITALICS. Non-ranked team upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this.

OHIO at Miami (OH)
#5 TCU at Texas
LSU at Texas A&M
Stanford at #8 UCLA
#13 ARIZONA ST. at #11 Arizona
ARKANSAS at #17 Missouri*
Western Kentucky at #24 MARSHALL
Northern Illinois at WESTERN MICHIGAN
NEBRASKA at Iowa
UCF at South Florida
HOUSTON at SMU
Ball St. at BOWLING GREEN
AKRON at Kent St.
BUFFALO at UMass
TOLEDO at Eastern Michigan
NAVY at South Alabama
COLORADO ST. at Air Force
Virginia at VIRGINIA TECH
EAST CAROLINA at Tulsa
#15 Auburn at #1 ALABAMA
#2 OREGON at Oregon St.
Florida at #3 FLORIDA ST.
#4 Mississippi St. at #19 OLE MISS
Michigan at #6 OHIO ST.
#7 BAYLOR vs. Texas Tech (Arlington)
#16 Georgia Tech at #9 GEORGIA
#10 MICHIGAN ST. at Penn St.
Kansas at #12 KANSAS ST.
#18 Minnesota at #14 WISCONSIN
South Carolina at #21 CLEMSON
Kentucky at #22 LOUISVILLE
Utah St. at #23 BOISE ST.
#25 UTAH at Colorado
CINCINNATI at Temple
Purdue at INDIANA
Illinois at NORTHWESTERN
Old Dominion at FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WEST VIRGINIA at Iowa St.
Rice at LOUISIANA TECH
North Texas at UTSA
NC State at NORTH CAROLINA
Syracuse at BOSTON COLLEGE
LOUISIANA at Troy
IDAHO at Appalachian St.
TEXAS ST. at Georgia St.
New Mexico St. at ARKANSAS ST.
Wyoming at NEW MEXICO
Notre Dame at USC
Rutgers at MARYLAND
UAB at Southern Miss
San Jose St. at SAN DIEGO ST.
TENNESSEE at Vanderbilt
UConn at MEMPHIS
BYU at CAL
Louisiana-Monroe at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at UTEP
Pitt at MIAMI
HAWAI’I at Fresno St.
Wake Forest at DUKE
WASHINGTON at Washington St.
NEVADA at UNLV

*Underdog despite higher ranking

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 14

Here’s what you need to watch this week(end). All times AZ.

Thursday

LSU at Texas A&M 5:30 PM ESPN
#5 TCU at Texas 5:30 PM FS1

Friday Morning

Nebraska at Iowa 10:00 AM ABC
Ball St. at Bowling Green 11:00 AM ESPN3 (streaming)

Friday Afternoon

#13 Arizona St. at #11 Arizona 1:30 PM FOX
Arkansas at #17 Missouri 12:30 PM CBS

Friday Night

Virginia at Virginia Tech 6:00 PM ESPN
East Carolina at Tulsa 6:30 PM ESPNU

Saturday Morning

#16 Georgia Tech at #9 Georgia 10:00 AM SECN
Cincinnati at Temple 10:00 AM ESPNEWS

Saturday Afternoon

#4 Mississippi St. at #19 Ole Miss 1:30 PM CBS
Notre Dame at USC 1:30 PM FOX

Saturday Night

#15 Auburn at #1 Alabama 5:45 PM ESPN / SECN
Pitt at Miami 5:00 PM ESPN2

Saturday Late

Utah St. at #23 Boise St. 8:15 PM ESPN2
Washington at Washington St. 8:30 PM FS1

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 13

Here’s what you need to watch this weekend. All times AZ. See below for a breakdown of the best games to watch by day and time slot.

Game of the Week

#24 Louisville at Notre Dame Saturday 1:30 PM NBC

4-Star Game

#19 USC at #9 UCLA Saturday 6:00 PM ABC

3-Star Games

#12 K-State at West Virginia Thursday 5:00 PM FS1
#15 Arizona at #17 Utah Saturday 1:30 PM ESPN

2-Star Games

#25 Minnesota at #23 Nebraska Saturday 10:00 AM ESPN
Maryland at Michigan Saturday 1:30 PM BTN
#8 Ole Miss at Arkansas Saturday 1:30 PM CBS
Stanford at Cal Saturday 2:00 PM FS1
#20 Missouri at Tennessee Saturday 5:30 PM ESPN
Oregon St. at Washington Saturday 8:30 PM PAC-12

1-Star Games

Syracuse at Pitt Saturday 1:30 PM ESPNU
Miami at Virginia Saturday 5:00 PM ESPN2

Best Games to Watch by Day/Time

Thursday

#12 K-State at West Virginia 5:00 PM FS1
North Carolina at Duke 5:30 PM ESPN

Friday

Air Force at San Diego St. 7:30 PM CBSSN
UTEP at Rice 6:00 PM FS1

Saturday Morning

#25 Minnesota at #23 Nebraska 10:00 AM ESPN
Northwestern at Purdue 10:00 AM ESPNU

Saturday Afternoon

#24 Louisville at Notre Dame 1:30 PM NBC
#15 Arizona at #17 Utah 1:30 PM ESPN

Saturday Night

#19 USC at #9 UCLA 6:00 PM ABC
#20 Missouri at Tennessee 5:30 PM ESPN

Saturday Late

Oregon St. at Washington 8:30 PM PAC-12
Boise St. at Wyoming 8:15 PM ESPN2

Week 13 Updated Playoff Projection Using Advanced Stats

Using Bill Connelly’s win projections at Football Study Hall and F/+ ratings, I have projected all of the remaining games for remaining relevant teams in the College Football Playoff rankings.

See the first projections for more explanation.

Here are my updated top four using advanced stats projections and a little bit of intuition. Read on to find out how I came to my conclusions.

TOP FOUR

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida St.
4. TCU

Below are the projected results of each team’s remaining FBS schedule. Changes in projections are in bold.


#1 Alabama

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
14 Auburn W 11-1 7-1
15 SEC Championship (Georgia) W 12-1 8-1*

*SEC Champs


#2 Oregon

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Colorado W 10-1 7-1
14 @ Oregon St W 11-1 8-1
15 Pac-12 Championship (Arizona St.) W 12-1 9-1*

*Pac-12 Champs


#3 Florida St

Current Record: 10-0
Current Conference Record: 7-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Boston College W 11-0 8-0
14 Florida W 12-0 8-0
15 ACC Championship (Duke) W 13-0 9-0*

*ACC Champs


#4 Mississippi St

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Vanderbilt W 10-1 6-1
14 @ Ole Miss L 10-2 6-2

#5 TCU

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
14 @ Texas W 10-1 7-1
15 Iowa St W 11-1 8-1*

*Big 12 Co-Champs


#6 Ohio St.

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Indiana W 10-1 7-0
14 Michigan W 11-1 8-0
15 Big Ten Championship (Wisconsin) W 12-1 9-0*

*Big Ten Champs


#7 Baylor

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Oklahoma St W 9-1 6-1
14 Texas Tech W 10-1 7-1
15 K-State W 11-1 8-1**

*Big 12 Co-Champs and would be submitted to the Committee as the conference champion representative


#8 Ole Miss

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Arkansas W 9-2 5-2
14 Mississippi St W 10-2 6-2

#9 UCLA

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 USC L 8-3 5-3
14 Stanford W 9-3 6-3

#10 Georgia

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 6-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
14 Georgia Tech W 10-2 6-2

#11 Michigan St

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Rutgers W 9-2 6-1
14 @ Penn St W 10-2 7-1

#12 Kansas St

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ West Virginia Toss-Up 7-3 or 8-2 5-2 or 6-1
14 Kansas W 8-3 or 9-2 6-2 or 7-1
15 @ Baylor L 8-4 or 9-3 6-3 or 7-2

#13 Arizona St

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Washington St W 9-2 6-2
14 @ Arizona W 10-2 7-2
15 Pac-12 Championship (Oregon) L 10-3 7-3

#15 Arizona

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Utah L 8-3 5-3
14 Arizona St L 8-4 5-4

#16 Wisconsin

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Iowa W 9-2 6-1
14 Minnesota W 10-2 7-1
15 Big Ten Championship (Ohio St.) L 10-3 7-2

Toss-Up Predictions

Kansas St.: West Virginia is tough at home. I’m picking the Mountaineers and K-State to finish 8-4


Projected Records

TEAM PROJ CONF REC PROJ FINAL REC W/ TOSS-UP PREDICTIONS
Florida St.* 9-0 13-0 13-0
Ohio St.* 9-0 12-1 12-1
Oregon* 9-1 12-1 12-1
Alabama* 8-1 12-1 12-1
Baylor*** 8-1 11-1 11-1
TCU** 8-1 11-1 11-1
Wisconsin 7-2 10-3 10-3
Arizona St. 7-3 10-3 10-3
Michigan St. 7-1 10-2 10-2
Georgia 6-2 10-2 10-2
Ole Miss 6-2 10-2 10-2
Mississippi St. 6-2 10-2 10-2
UCLA 6-3 9-3 9-3
Kansas St. 6-3 or 7-2 8-4 or 9-3 8-4
Arizona 5-4 8-4 8-4

*Conference Champions
**Conference Co-Champions
***Conference Co-Champions and submitted to Committee as Conference Champs


Playoff Candidates

Team Reason
Ohio St. Big Ten Champ
Oregon Pac-12 Champ
Florida St. ACC Champ
Alabama SEC Champ
TCU Big 12 Co-Champ
Baylor Big 12 Co-Champ
Arizona St Pac-12 Runners-Up
Wisconsin Big Ten Runners-Up
Duke ACC Runners-Up
Georgia SEC Runners-Up
Ole Miss/Mississippi St. SEC Bias

Who’s in?

Not in: ASU, Wisconsin, Duke, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi St.

A one-loss SEC champ is in: Alabama.
An undefeated Power 5 team is in: Florida St.
A one-loss Pac-12 champ is in: Oregon.

Three teams left for one spot. Let’s look at quality wins and each team’s loss.

Quality Wins

Rankings in (parenthesis) indicate a ranking at the time the game was played.
TCU: #25 Minnesota, (#4) #21 Oklahoma, (#15) Oklahoma St., (#20) West Virginia, (#7) #12 Kansas St.
Ohio St.: (#8) #11 Michigan St., #25 Minnesota, Projected: #16 Wisconsin
Baylor: (#9) #5 TCU, (#15) #21 Oklahoma, Projected: #12 K-State

Advantage: TCU

Best Losses

Rankings in (parenthesis) indicate a ranking at the time the game was played.
TCU: #7 Baylor
Ohio St.: UR Virginia Tech
Baylor: UR West Virginia

Advantage: TCU

Poor Game Control

I didn’t have a name for it last week (I called it “ugly wins”), but now Mr. Long of the Committee has called it “Game Control.” In other words, not struggling against inferior opponents.

TCU: (#5) #21 Oklahoma, (#20) West Virginia, UR Kansas
Ohio St.: UR Penn St.
Baylor: (#9) #5 TCU

Advantage: Baylor

Conclusion: Right now, since we can’t project HOW these teams might play the next few games and based on how the Committee has ranked these teams so far, I’m going to give the nod to TCU despite the head-to-head advantage Baylor has. Keep in mind, the way the last few games are played could definitely change that.

by pcscheid (https://www.flickr.com/photos/pcscheid/4349625635/)

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 13 Picks

Last week’s results: 32-18 (.640), upset picks: 2-4 (.333)
Overall: 431-160 (.729), upset picks: 24-42 (.364)

Upset Pick of the Week

WEST VIRGINIA over #12 K-State

Upset Picks

#19 USC over #9 UCLA
#17 UTAH over #15 Arizona
AIR FORCE over San Diego St.
WESTERN MICHIGAN over Central Michigan
MARYLAND over Michigan
TEXAS TECH over Iowa St.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over North Texas

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in ITALICS. Non-ranked team upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this.

UMass at AKRON
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at Ohio
Bowling Green at TOLEDO
Kent St. at BUFFALO
#12 K-State at WEST VIRGINIA
North Carolina at DUKE
ARKANSAS ST. at Texas St.
UTEP at Rice
AIR FORCE at San Diego St.
San Jose St. at UTAH ST.
Colorado at #2 OREGON
Boston College at #3 FLORIDA ST.
Vanderbilt at #4 MISSISSIPPI ST.
Indiana at #6 OHIO ST.
Oklahoma St. at #7 BAYLOR
#8 OLE MISS at Arkansas
#19 USC at #9 UCLA
Rutgers at #11 MICHIGAN ST.
Washington St. at #13 ARIZONA ST.
#15 Arizona* at #17 UTAH
#16 WISCONSIN at Iowa
#20 MISSOURI* at Tennessee
Kansas at #21 OKLAHOMA
Georgia St. at #22 CLEMSON
#25 Minnesota at #23 NEBRASKA
#24 LOUISVILLE* at Notre Dame
South Alabama at SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTERN at Purdue
MARSHALL at UAB
UTSA at WESTERN KENTUCKY
SMU at UCF
PENN ST. at Illinois
VIRGINIA TECH at Wake Forest
LOUISIANA TECH at Old Dominion
WESTERN MICHIGAN at Central Michigan
New Mexico at COLORADO ST.
Eastern Michigan at BALL ST.
Tulsa at HOUSTON
MARYLAND at Michigan
TEXAS TECH at Iowa St.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at North Texas
Tulane at EAST CAROLINA
Syracuse at PITT
South Florida at MEMPHIS
STANFORD at California
LOUISIANA-MONROE at New Mexico St.
Appalachian St. at LOUISIANA
MIAMI at Virginia
Florida Atlantic at MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CINCINNATI at UConn
BOISE ST. at Wyoming
Fresno St. at NEVADA
Oregon St. at WASHINGTON
UNLV at HAWAI’I

*Underdog despite higher ranking

Week 12 Updated Playoff Projection Using Advanced Stats

Using Bill Connelly’s win projections at Football Study Hall (top contenders, Pac-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12) and F/+ ratings, I have projected all of the remaining games for remaining relevant teams in the College Football Playoff rankings.

See the first projections for more explanation.

Here are my updated top four using advanced stats projections and a little bit of intuition. Read on to find out how I came to my conclusions.

TOP FOUR

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Ohio St.

Below are the projected results of each team’s remaining FBS schedule. Changes in projections are in bold.


#1 Mississippi St

Current Record: 8-0
Current Conference Record: 5-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Alabama L 9-1 5-1
13 Vanderbilt W 10-1 6-1
14 @ Ole Miss L 10-2 6-2

#2 Oregon

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Colorado W 10-1 7-1
14 @ Oregon St W 11-1 8-1
15 Pac-12 Championship (Arizona St.) W 12-1 9-1*

*Pac-12 Champs


#3 Florida St

Current Record: 9-0
Current Conference Record: 6-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Miami L 9-1 6-1
13 Boston College W 10-1 7-1
14 Florida W 11-1 7-1
15 ACC Championship (Duke) W 12-1 8-1*

*ACC Champs


#4 TCU

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Kansas W 9-1 6-1
14 @ Texas W 10-1 7-1
15 Iowa St W 11-1 8-1*

*Big 12 Co-Champs


#5 Alabama

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 Mississippi St W 9-1 6-1
14 Auburn W 11-1 7-1
15 SEC Championship (Missouri/Georgia) W 12-1 8-1*

*SEC Champs


#6 Arizona St

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 6-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Oregon St W 9-1 6-1
13 Washington St W 10-1 7-1
14 @ Arizona W 11-1 8-1
15 Pac-12 Championship (Oregon) L 11-2 8-2

#7 Baylor

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Oklahoma St W 9-1 6-1
14 Texas Tech W 10-1 7-1
15 K-State W 11-1 8-1**

*Big 12 Co-Champs and would be submitted to the Committee as the conference champion representative


#8 Ohio St

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Minnesota W 9-1 6-0
13 Indiana W 10-1 7-0
14 Michigan W 11-1 8-0
15 Big Ten Championship (Wisconsin) W 12-1 9-0*

*Big Ten Champs


#9 Auburn

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Georgia W 8-2 5-2
14 @ Alabama L 9-3 5-3

#10 Ole Miss

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Arkansas W 9-2 5-2
14 Mississippi St W 10-2 6-2

#11 UCLA

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 USC W 9-2 6-2
14 Stanford W 10-2 7-2

#12 Michigan St

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Maryland W 8-2 5-1
13 Rutgers W 9-2 6-1
14 @ Penn St W 10-2 7-1

#13 Kansas St

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ TCU L 7-2 5-1
13 @ West Virginia Toss-Up 7-3 or 8-2 5-2 or 6-1
14 Kansas W 8-3 or 9-2 6-2 or 7-1
15 @ Baylor L 8-4 or 9-3 6-3 or 7-2

#14 Arizona

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 Washington W 8-2 5-2
13 @ Utah L 8-3 5-3
14 Arizona St L 8-4 5-4

#15 Georgia

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 5-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 Auburn L 7-3 5-3
14 Georgia Tech W 9-3 5-3

#16 Nebraska

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Wisconsin Toss-Up 8-2 or 9-1 4-2 or 5-1
13 Minnesota W 9-2 or 10-1 5-2 or 6-1
14 @ Iowa W 10-2 or 11-1 6-2 or 7-1
15 Bye or Big Ten Championship N/A or L 10-2 or 11-2 6-2 or 7-2

#21 Duke

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 Virginia Tech W 9-1 5-1
13 North Carolina W 10-1 6-1
14 Wake Forest W 11-1 7-1
15 ACC Championship L 11-2 7-2

Toss-Up Predictions

Kansas St.: West Virginia is tough at home. I’m picking the Mountaineers and K-State to finish 8-4

Nebraska: I’m giving the Badgers the home-field advantage (especially with Ameer Abdullah probably not at full strength). Huskers finish 10-2.


Projected Records

TEAM PROJ CONF REC PROJ FINAL REC W/ TOSS-UP PREDICTIONS
Ohio St. 9-0* 12-1* 12-1*
Oregon 9-1* 12-1* 12-1*
Florida St. 8-1* 12-1* 12-1*
Alabama 8-1* 12-1* 12-1*
TCU 8-1** 11-1** 11-1**
Baylor 8-1*** 11-1*** 11-1***
Arizona St. 8-2 11-2 11-2
Duke 7-2 11-2 11-2
Nebraska 6-2 or 7-1 10-2 or 11-2 10-2
Michigan St. 7-1 10-2 10-2
Ole Miss 6-2 10-2 10-2
Mississippi St. 6-2 10-2 10-2
UCLA 7-2 10-2 10-2
Auburn 5-3 9-3 9-3
Georgia 5-3 9-3 9-3
Kansas St. 6-3 or 7-2 8-4 or 9-3 8-4
Arizona 5-4 8-4 8-4

*Conference Champions
**Conference Co-Champions
***Conference Co-Champions and submitted to Committee as Conference Champs


Playoff Candidates

Team Reason
Ohio St. Big Ten Champ
Oregon Pac-12 Champ
Florida St. ACC Champ
Alabama SEC Champ
TCU Big 12 Co-Champ
Arizona St Pac-12 Runners-Up
Nebraska Big Ten Runners-Up
Duke ACC Runners-Up
Ole Miss/Mississippi St. SEC Bias
Baylor Big 12 Co-Champ

Who’s in?

Based on how things have played out in the last three weeks’ worth of rankings, two-loss teams are a non-factor. This eliminates Arizona St., Nebraska, Duke, Ole Miss, and Mississippi St. We’re left with six one-loss teams, all of whom are conference champions or co-champions.

We can easily put one team in. A one-loss SEC champ is in: Alabama.

Five teams left for three spots. Using the current rankings, let’s look at quality wins and each team’s loss.

With WVU and OU dropping out of the rankings Oregon has the best resume regarding top-25 wins with #12 Michigan St., #11 UCLA, #23 Utah, and #6 Arizona St. Baylor has the worst list of quality wins with only TCU still being ranked. If you include Oklahoma and West Virginia as quality wins, then TCU also would have four with #25 Minnesota, #13 Kansas St., Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Advantage: Oregon, Ohio St., TCU.

When looking at quality of losses, TCU has the “best” loss coming at the hands of #7 Baylor. Ohio St.’s loss to Virginia Tech is the worst. The other three teams are pretty even in their losses to pretty good, but not great teams. Advantage: TCU, Oregon, Florida St./Baylor tie.

I don’t know if the committee will factor in ugly wins/near misses as a good or bad thing. Either way, Florida St. has a bunch of them: Oklahoma St., #19 Clemson*, NC State, #18 Notre Dame, and Louisville. The best ugly win is Baylor over TCU. TCU’s win over WVU on the road isn’t too bad either. Oregon and Ohio St.’s near losses to Wazzu and Penn St., respectively, don’t look that great. Advantage: Baylor, TCU, Ohio St.

Just looking at who’s playing the best football right now, I give the advantage to everybody except Florida St.

Conclusion: If Oregon keeps being Oregon, TCU doesn’t slip up against their weak remaining schedule, and Ohio St. can beat the two ranked opponents remaining on their schedule, those three are in.

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 12

Here’s what you need to watch this weekend. All times AZ. See below for a breakdown of the best games to watch by day and time slot.

Game of the Week

#1 Mississippi St. at #5 Alabama Saturday 1:30 PM CBS

4-Star Games

#19 Clemson at #22 Georgia Tech Saturday 10:00 AM ESPN
Virginia Tech at #21 Duke Saturday 10:00 AM ESPNU
#16 Nebraska at #20 Wisconsin Saturday 1:30 PM ABC
#9 Auburn at #15 Georgia Saturday 5:15 PM ESPN
#3 Florida St. at Miami Saturday 6:00 PM ABC

2-Star Games

South Carolina at Florida Saturday 10:00 AM SECN
Nevada at Air Force Saturday 12:00 PM MWC Video (Streaming)
Georgia Southern at Navy Saturday 1:30 PM CBSSN
#23 Utah at Stanford Saturday 4:00 PM PAC12
Missouri at #24 Texas A&M Saturday 5:30 PM SECN

1-Star Games

Pitt at North Carolina Saturday 10:30 AM ESPN3 (Streaming)
#17 LSU at Arkansas Saturday 6:00 PM ESPN2
#12 Michigan St. at Maryland Saturday 6:00 PM BTN

Best Games to Watch by Day/Time

Thursday

East Carolina at Cincinnati 5:00 PM ESPN2
Cal at USC 7:00 PM ESPN

Friday

Tulsa at UCF 6:00 PM ESPN2

Saturday Morning

#19 Clemson at #22 Georgia Tech 10:00 AM ESPN
Virginia Tech at #21 Duke 10:00 AM ESPNU

Saturday Afternoon

#1 Mississippi St. at #5 Alabama 1:30 PM CBS
#16 Nebraska at #20 Wisconsin 1:30 PM ABC

Saturday Night

#3 Florida St. at Miami 6:00 PM ABC
#9 Auburn at #15 Georgia 5:15 PM ESPN

Saturday Late

#6 Arizona St. at Oregon St. 8:45 PM ESPN

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 12 Picks

Last week’s results: 35-13 (.729), upset picks: 1-3 (.250)
Overall: 399-142 (.738), upset picks: 22-38 (.367)

Upset Pick of the Week

MIAMI over #3 Florida St.

Upset Picks

#5 ALABAMA over #1 Mississippi St.
#20 WISCONSIN over #16 Nebraska
STANFORD over #23 Utah
BALL ST. over UMass
PITT over North Carolina

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in ITALICS. Non-ranked team upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this.

TOLEDO at Northern Illinois
AKRON at Buffalo
BALL ST. at UMass
Kent St. at BOWLING GREEN
EAST CAROLINA at Cincinnati
Southern Miss at UTSA
Cal at USC
#1 Mississippi St. at #5 ALABAMA
#3 Florida St. at MIAMI
#4 TCU at Kansas
#6 ARIZONA ST. at Oregon St.
#8 OHIO ST. at #25 Minnesota
#9 AUBURN* at #15 Georgia
#12 MICHIGAN ST. at Maryland
Washington at #14 ARIZONA
#16 Nebraska* at #20 WISCONSIN
#17 LSU* at Arkansas
Northwestern at #18 NOTRE DAME
#19 CLEMSON at #22 Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech at #21 DUKE
#23 Utah at STANFORD
Missouri at #24 TEXAS A&M
Tulsa at UCF
Temple at PENN ST.
Army at WESTERN KENTUCKY
IOWA at Illinois
South Carolina at FLORIDA
PITT at North Carolina
Miami (OH) at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Nevada at AIR FORCE
Eastern Michigan at WESTERN MICHIGAN
Rice at MARSHALL
Wake Forest at NC STATE
Appalachian St. at ARKANSAS ST.
Georgia Southern at NAVY
MEMPHIS at Tulane
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at Florida International
OKLAHOMA at Texas Tech
Indiana at RUTGERS
New Mexico at UTAH ST.
Kentucky at TENNESSEE
Hawaii at SAN JOSE ST.
Troy at IDAHO
LOUISIANA at Louisiana-Monroe
UNLV at BYU
Texas St. at SOUTH ALABAMA
TEXAS at Oklahoma St.
SOUTH FLORIDA at SMU
North Texas at UTEP
San Diego St. at BOISE ST.

*Underdog despite higher ranking

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 11

Here’s what you need to watch this weekend. All times AZ. See below for a breakdown of the best games to watch by day and time slot. I hope you have more than one TV.

Game of the Week

#14 Ohio St. at #8 Michigan St. Saturday 6:00 PM ABC

5-Star Game

#5 Alabama at #16 LSU Saturday 6:00 PM CBS

4-Star Games

#12 Baylor at #15 Oklahoma Saturday 10:00 AM FS1
#10 Notre Dame at #9 Arizona St. Saturday 1:30 PM ABC
#7 K-State at #6 TCU Saturday 5:30 PM FOX

3-Star Game

Louisville at Boston College Saturday 5:15 PM ESPN2

2-Star Game

#4 Oregon at #17 Utah Saturday 8:00 PM ESPN

1-Star Games

Iowa at Minnesota Saturday 10:00 AM ESPN2
#23 West Virginia at Texas Saturday 1:30 PM FS1

Best Games to Watch by Day/Time

Thursday

#21 Clemson at Wake Forest 5:30 PM ESPN

Friday

Memphis at Temple 5:30 PM ESPNU

Saturday Morning

#12 Baylor at #15 Oklahoma 10:00 AM FS1
Iowa at Minnesota 10:00 AM ESPN2

Saturday Afternoon

#10 Notre Dame at #9 Arizona St 1:30 PM ABC
#23 West Virginia at Texas 1:30 PM FS1

Saturday Night

#14 Ohio St. at #8 Michigan St. 6:00 PM ABC
#5 Alabama at #16 LSU 6:00 PM CBS

Saturday Late

#4 Oregon at #17 Utah 8:00 PM ESPN

Week 11 Updated Playoff Projection Using Advanced Stats

Using Bill Connelly’s win projections at Football Study Hall (top contenders, Pac-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12) and F/+ ratings, I have projected all of the remaining games for remaining relevant teams in the College Football Playoff rankings.

See the first projections for more explanation.

Here are my updated top four using advanced stats projections and a little bit of intuition. Ole Miss’ loss to LSU caused a decent shake up over last week. Read on to find out how I came to my conclusions.

TOP FOUR

1. Florida St.
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Oregon

Below are the projected results of each team’s remaining FBS schedule. Changes in projections are in bold.


#1 Mississippi St

Current Record: 8-0
Current Conference Record: 5-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Alabama L 9-1 5-1
13 Vanderbilt W 10-1 6-1
14 @ Ole Miss L 10-2 6-2

#2 Florida St

Current Record: 8-0
Current Conference Record: 5-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Virginia W 9-0 6-0
12 @ Miami Toss-Up 10-0 or 9-1 7-0 or 6-1
13 Boston College W 11-0 or 10-1 8-0 or 7-1
14 Florida W 12-0 or 11-1 8-0 or 7-1
15 ACC Championship W 13-0 or 12-1 9-0* or 8-1*

*ACC Champs


#3 Auburn

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Texas A&M W 8-1 5-1
12 @ Georgia W 9-1 6-1
14 @ Alabama Toss-Up 11-1 or 10-2 7-1 or 6-2
15 SEC Championship or Bye W or N/A 12-1 or 10-2 8-1* or 6-2

*SEC Champs


#4 Oregon

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ Utah W 9-1 6-1
13 Colorado W 10-1 7-1
14 @ Oregon St W 11-1 8-1
15 Pac-12 Championship W 12-1 9-1*

*Pac-12 Champs


#5 Alabama

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ LSU W 8-1 5-1
12 Mississippi St W 9-1 6-1
14 Auburn Toss-Up 11-1 or 10-2 7-1 or 6-2
15 SEC Championship or Bye W 12-1 or 10-2 8-1* or 6-2

*SEC Champs


#6 TCU

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 K-State W 8-1 5-1
12 @ Kansas W 9-1 6-1
14 @ Texas W 10-1 7-1
15 Iowa St W 11-1 8-1*

*Big 12 Champs


#7 Kansas St

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 5-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ TCU L 7-2 5-1
13 @ West Virginia W 8-2 6-1
14 Kansas W 9-2 7-1
15 @ Baylor Toss-Up 10-2 or 9-3 8-1 or 7-2

#8 Michigan St

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Ohio St Toss-Up 8-1 or 7-2 5-0 or 4-1
12 @ Maryland W 9-1 or 8-2 6-0 or 5-1
13 Rutgers W 10-1 or 9-2 7-0 or 6-1
14 @ Penn St W 11-1 or 10-2 8-0 or 7-1
15 Big Ten Championship W or Bye 12-1 or 10-2 9-0* or 7-1

*Big Ten champions


#9 Arizona St

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Notre Dame W 8-1 5-1
12 @ Oregon St W 9-1 6-1
13 Washington St W 10-1 7-1
14 @ Arizona Toss-Up 11-1 or 10-2 8-1 or 7-2
15 Pac-12 Championship or Bye L or N/A 11-2 or 10-2 8-2 or 7-2

#10 Notre Dame

Current Record: 7-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record
11 @ Arizona St L 7-2
12 Northwestern W 8-2
13 Louisville Toss-Up 9-2 or 8-3
14 @ USC L 9-3 or 8-4

#11 Ole Miss

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Arkansas W 9-2 5-2
14 Mississippi St W 10-2 6-2

#12 Baylor

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ Oklahoma L 7-2 4-2
13 Oklahoma St W 8-2 5-2
14 Texas Tech W 9-2 6-2
15 K-State Toss-Up 10-2 or 9-3 7-2 or 6-3

#13 Nebraska

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Wisconsin W 9-1 5-1
13 Minnesota W 10-1 6-1
14 @ Iowa W 11-1 7-1
15 Big Ten Championship L 11-2 7-2

#14 Ohio St

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ Michigan St Toss-Up 8-1 or 7-2 5-0 or 4-1
12 @ Minnesota W 9-1 or 8-2 6-0 or 5-1
13 Indiana W 10-1 or 9-2 7-0 or 6-1
14 Michigan W 11-1 or 10-2 8-0 or 7-1
15 Big Ten Championship or Bye W 12-1 or 10-2 9-0* or 7-1

*Big Ten Champs


#15 Oklahoma

Current Record: 6-2
Current Conference Record: 3-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Baylor W 7-2 4-2
12 @ Texas Tech W 8-2 5-2
13 Kansas W 9-2 6-2
15 Oklahoma St W 10-2 7-2

#18 UCLA

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Washington W 8-2 5-2
13 USC W 9-2 6-2
14 Stanford W 10-2 7-2
15 Bye or Pac-12 Championship* L 10-3 or 10-2 7-3 or 7-2

*If Arizona St loses their toss-up vs Arizona


#19 Arizona

Current Record: 6-2
Current Conference Record: 3-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Colorado W 7-2 4-2
12 Washington W 8-2 5-2
13 @ Utah Toss-Up 9-2 or 8-3 6-2 or 5-3
14 Arizona St Toss-Up 10-2, 9-3, or 8-4 7-2, 6-3, or 5-4

#22 Duke

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 3-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ Syracuse W 8-1 4-1
12 Virginia Tech W 9-1 5-1
13 North Carolina W 10-1 6-1
14 Wake Forest W 11-1 7-1
15 ACC Championship L 11-2 7-2

Toss-Up Predictions

Florida St: Lady Luck seems to be on the Seminoles side. Unfortunately, I’m changing my prediction. FSU beats the Hurricanes on the road and finishes 12-0.

Auburn/Alabama: With the “Pick 6” in their minds and playing at home, I can’t see Alabama losing this game. Auburn finishes 10-2 and Alabama is your 11-1 SEC West Division winner.

K-State/Baylor: After this week’s game against TCU, we’ll know better how the Wildcats will fair against a high-powered offense on the road. Until then, I’m picking Baylor at home. K-State 9-3, Baylor 10-2.

Michigan St./Ohio St.: Ohio St. has been a strange team this year while Michigan St. seems much more consistent to me. I’ll take Michigan St. at home. Sparty 11-1, Buckeyes 10-2.

Arizona St: ASU over the Cats in Tucson. ASU wins the Pac-12 South.

Arizona/Utah: I like Utah on the road against Arizona. Couple that with Arizona’s loss to ASU and Tucson and Salt Lake both finish 8-4.

Notre Dame: Louisville loses on the road to Notre Dame. Irish go 9-3.


Projected Records

TEAM PROJ CONF REC PROJ FINAL REC W/ TOSS-UP PREDICTIONS
Florida St 9-0* or 8-1* 13-0* or 12-1* 13-0*
Alabama 8-1* or 6-2 12-1* or 10-2 12-1*
Auburn 8-1* or 6-2 12-1* or 10-2 10-2
Oregon 9-1 12-1* 12-1*
Michigan State 9-0* or 7-1 12-1* or 10-2 12-1*
Ohio State 9-0* or 7-1 12-1* or 10-2 10-2
TCU 8-1 11-1* 11-1*
Nebraska 7-2 11-2 11-2
Duke 7-2 11-2 11-2
Arizona State 8-2 or 7-2 11-2 or 10-2 11-2
Ole Miss 6-2 10-2 10-2
Mississippi St 6-2 10-2 10-2
Oklahoma 7-2 10-2 10-2
UCLA 7-3, or 7-2 10-3 or 10-2 10-2
Baylor 7-2 or 6-3 10-2 or 9-3 10-2
Kansas State 8-1 or 7-2 10-2 or 9-3 9-3
Arizona 7-2, 6-3, or 5-4 10-2, 9-3, or 8-4 8-4
Notre Dame 9-3 or 8-4 9-3

*Conference Champions


Playoff Candidates

Team Reason
Florida St ACC Champ
Alabama SEC Champ
Oregon Pac-12 Champ
Michigan St Big Ten Champ
TCU Big 12 Champ
Arizona St Pac-12 Runners-Up
Nebraska Big Ten Runners-Up
Duke ACC Runners-Up
Auburn/Mississippi St. SEC Bias

Who’s in?

An undefeated ACC champ is in: Florida St.

A one-loss SEC champ is in: Alabama.

One-loss conference champions from the Pac-12, Big Ten and Big 12 plus another possible SEC team are our remaining candidates.

Oregon lost to un-ranked Arizona and had a close one against Washington St, but handled #7 Michigan St with relative ease, beat #18 UCLA on the road, and is projected to beat #17 Utah on the road. Three quality wins, no “quality losses,” one “bad loss,” and one close-call.

Michigan St has the afore mentioned loss to the Ducks, beat #19 Nebraska and I predict will beat #14 Ohio St and #13 Nebraska again in the Big Ten Championship. Otherwise, their schedule is somewhat lacking. However, beating a top-25 team twice is nothing to shake a stick at. Three projected quality wins and one “quality loss.” Unfortunately, that loss came to another playoff contender which gives the Ducks the advantage here. Oregon’s in.

TCU is an easy team in this group to put in the playoff. Take away one quarter against Baylor and this team has been outstanding. They upset a top-5 Oklahoma, smashed #15 Oklahoma St, beat #20 WVU on ther road, and are projected to beat another top-10 team in K-State. Four quality wins and one “quality loss.” They’re in.

As far as the other teams go, I still don’t see how any of the two-loss teams have enough going for them to be included over the four teams I’m projecting above. There is just not enough evidence in their favor that they belong in the playoff.