Week 11 Updated Playoff Projection Using Advanced Stats

Using Bill Connelly’s win projections at Football Study Hall (top contenders, Pac-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12) and F/+ ratings, I have projected all of the remaining games for remaining relevant teams in the College Football Playoff rankings.

See the first projections for more explanation.

Here are my updated top four using advanced stats projections and a little bit of intuition. Ole Miss’ loss to LSU caused a decent shake up over last week. Read on to find out how I came to my conclusions.

TOP FOUR

1. Florida St.
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Oregon

Below are the projected results of each team’s remaining FBS schedule. Changes in projections are in bold.


#1 Mississippi St

Current Record: 8-0
Current Conference Record: 5-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Alabama L 9-1 5-1
13 Vanderbilt W 10-1 6-1
14 @ Ole Miss L 10-2 6-2

#2 Florida St

Current Record: 8-0
Current Conference Record: 5-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Virginia W 9-0 6-0
12 @ Miami Toss-Up 10-0 or 9-1 7-0 or 6-1
13 Boston College W 11-0 or 10-1 8-0 or 7-1
14 Florida W 12-0 or 11-1 8-0 or 7-1
15 ACC Championship W 13-0 or 12-1 9-0* or 8-1*

*ACC Champs


#3 Auburn

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Texas A&M W 8-1 5-1
12 @ Georgia W 9-1 6-1
14 @ Alabama Toss-Up 11-1 or 10-2 7-1 or 6-2
15 SEC Championship or Bye W or N/A 12-1 or 10-2 8-1* or 6-2

*SEC Champs


#4 Oregon

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ Utah W 9-1 6-1
13 Colorado W 10-1 7-1
14 @ Oregon St W 11-1 8-1
15 Pac-12 Championship W 12-1 9-1*

*Pac-12 Champs


#5 Alabama

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ LSU W 8-1 5-1
12 Mississippi St W 9-1 6-1
14 Auburn Toss-Up 11-1 or 10-2 7-1 or 6-2
15 SEC Championship or Bye W 12-1 or 10-2 8-1* or 6-2

*SEC Champs


#6 TCU

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 K-State W 8-1 5-1
12 @ Kansas W 9-1 6-1
14 @ Texas W 10-1 7-1
15 Iowa St W 11-1 8-1*

*Big 12 Champs


#7 Kansas St

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 5-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ TCU L 7-2 5-1
13 @ West Virginia W 8-2 6-1
14 Kansas W 9-2 7-1
15 @ Baylor Toss-Up 10-2 or 9-3 8-1 or 7-2

#8 Michigan St

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Ohio St Toss-Up 8-1 or 7-2 5-0 or 4-1
12 @ Maryland W 9-1 or 8-2 6-0 or 5-1
13 Rutgers W 10-1 or 9-2 7-0 or 6-1
14 @ Penn St W 11-1 or 10-2 8-0 or 7-1
15 Big Ten Championship W or Bye 12-1 or 10-2 9-0* or 7-1

*Big Ten champions


#9 Arizona St

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Notre Dame W 8-1 5-1
12 @ Oregon St W 9-1 6-1
13 Washington St W 10-1 7-1
14 @ Arizona Toss-Up 11-1 or 10-2 8-1 or 7-2
15 Pac-12 Championship or Bye L or N/A 11-2 or 10-2 8-2 or 7-2

#10 Notre Dame

Current Record: 7-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record
11 @ Arizona St L 7-2
12 Northwestern W 8-2
13 Louisville Toss-Up 9-2 or 8-3
14 @ USC L 9-3 or 8-4

#11 Ole Miss

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Arkansas W 9-2 5-2
14 Mississippi St W 10-2 6-2

#12 Baylor

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ Oklahoma L 7-2 4-2
13 Oklahoma St W 8-2 5-2
14 Texas Tech W 9-2 6-2
15 K-State Toss-Up 10-2 or 9-3 7-2 or 6-3

#13 Nebraska

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 4-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
12 @ Wisconsin W 9-1 5-1
13 Minnesota W 10-1 6-1
14 @ Iowa W 11-1 7-1
15 Big Ten Championship L 11-2 7-2

#14 Ohio St

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 4-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ Michigan St Toss-Up 8-1 or 7-2 5-0 or 4-1
12 @ Minnesota W 9-1 or 8-2 6-0 or 5-1
13 Indiana W 10-1 or 9-2 7-0 or 6-1
14 Michigan W 11-1 or 10-2 8-0 or 7-1
15 Big Ten Championship or Bye W 12-1 or 10-2 9-0* or 7-1

*Big Ten Champs


#15 Oklahoma

Current Record: 6-2
Current Conference Record: 3-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Baylor W 7-2 4-2
12 @ Texas Tech W 8-2 5-2
13 Kansas W 9-2 6-2
15 Oklahoma St W 10-2 7-2

#18 UCLA

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Washington W 8-2 5-2
13 USC W 9-2 6-2
14 Stanford W 10-2 7-2
15 Bye or Pac-12 Championship* L 10-3 or 10-2 7-3 or 7-2

*If Arizona St loses their toss-up vs Arizona


#19 Arizona

Current Record: 6-2
Current Conference Record: 3-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 Colorado W 7-2 4-2
12 Washington W 8-2 5-2
13 @ Utah Toss-Up 9-2 or 8-3 6-2 or 5-3
14 Arizona St Toss-Up 10-2, 9-3, or 8-4 7-2, 6-3, or 5-4

#22 Duke

Current Record: 7-1
Current Conference Record: 3-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
11 @ Syracuse W 8-1 4-1
12 Virginia Tech W 9-1 5-1
13 North Carolina W 10-1 6-1
14 Wake Forest W 11-1 7-1
15 ACC Championship L 11-2 7-2

Toss-Up Predictions

Florida St: Lady Luck seems to be on the Seminoles side. Unfortunately, I’m changing my prediction. FSU beats the Hurricanes on the road and finishes 12-0.

Auburn/Alabama: With the “Pick 6” in their minds and playing at home, I can’t see Alabama losing this game. Auburn finishes 10-2 and Alabama is your 11-1 SEC West Division winner.

K-State/Baylor: After this week’s game against TCU, we’ll know better how the Wildcats will fair against a high-powered offense on the road. Until then, I’m picking Baylor at home. K-State 9-3, Baylor 10-2.

Michigan St./Ohio St.: Ohio St. has been a strange team this year while Michigan St. seems much more consistent to me. I’ll take Michigan St. at home. Sparty 11-1, Buckeyes 10-2.

Arizona St: ASU over the Cats in Tucson. ASU wins the Pac-12 South.

Arizona/Utah: I like Utah on the road against Arizona. Couple that with Arizona’s loss to ASU and Tucson and Salt Lake both finish 8-4.

Notre Dame: Louisville loses on the road to Notre Dame. Irish go 9-3.


Projected Records

TEAM PROJ CONF REC PROJ FINAL REC W/ TOSS-UP PREDICTIONS
Florida St 9-0* or 8-1* 13-0* or 12-1* 13-0*
Alabama 8-1* or 6-2 12-1* or 10-2 12-1*
Auburn 8-1* or 6-2 12-1* or 10-2 10-2
Oregon 9-1 12-1* 12-1*
Michigan State 9-0* or 7-1 12-1* or 10-2 12-1*
Ohio State 9-0* or 7-1 12-1* or 10-2 10-2
TCU 8-1 11-1* 11-1*
Nebraska 7-2 11-2 11-2
Duke 7-2 11-2 11-2
Arizona State 8-2 or 7-2 11-2 or 10-2 11-2
Ole Miss 6-2 10-2 10-2
Mississippi St 6-2 10-2 10-2
Oklahoma 7-2 10-2 10-2
UCLA 7-3, or 7-2 10-3 or 10-2 10-2
Baylor 7-2 or 6-3 10-2 or 9-3 10-2
Kansas State 8-1 or 7-2 10-2 or 9-3 9-3
Arizona 7-2, 6-3, or 5-4 10-2, 9-3, or 8-4 8-4
Notre Dame 9-3 or 8-4 9-3

*Conference Champions


Playoff Candidates

Team Reason
Florida St ACC Champ
Alabama SEC Champ
Oregon Pac-12 Champ
Michigan St Big Ten Champ
TCU Big 12 Champ
Arizona St Pac-12 Runners-Up
Nebraska Big Ten Runners-Up
Duke ACC Runners-Up
Auburn/Mississippi St. SEC Bias

Who’s in?

An undefeated ACC champ is in: Florida St.

A one-loss SEC champ is in: Alabama.

One-loss conference champions from the Pac-12, Big Ten and Big 12 plus another possible SEC team are our remaining candidates.

Oregon lost to un-ranked Arizona and had a close one against Washington St, but handled #7 Michigan St with relative ease, beat #18 UCLA on the road, and is projected to beat #17 Utah on the road. Three quality wins, no “quality losses,” one “bad loss,” and one close-call.

Michigan St has the afore mentioned loss to the Ducks, beat #19 Nebraska and I predict will beat #14 Ohio St and #13 Nebraska again in the Big Ten Championship. Otherwise, their schedule is somewhat lacking. However, beating a top-25 team twice is nothing to shake a stick at. Three projected quality wins and one “quality loss.” Unfortunately, that loss came to another playoff contender which gives the Ducks the advantage here. Oregon’s in.

TCU is an easy team in this group to put in the playoff. Take away one quarter against Baylor and this team has been outstanding. They upset a top-5 Oklahoma, smashed #15 Oklahoma St, beat #20 WVU on ther road, and are projected to beat another top-10 team in K-State. Four quality wins and one “quality loss.” They’re in.

As far as the other teams go, I still don’t see how any of the two-loss teams have enough going for them to be included over the four teams I’m projecting above. There is just not enough evidence in their favor that they belong in the playoff.

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