Week 13 Updated Playoff Projection Using Advanced Stats

Using Bill Connelly’s win projections at Football Study Hall and F/+ ratings, I have projected all of the remaining games for remaining relevant teams in the College Football Playoff rankings.

See the first projections for more explanation.

Here are my updated top four using advanced stats projections and a little bit of intuition. Read on to find out how I came to my conclusions.

TOP FOUR

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida St.
4. TCU

Below are the projected results of each team’s remaining FBS schedule. Changes in projections are in bold.


#1 Alabama

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
14 Auburn W 11-1 7-1
15 SEC Championship (Georgia) W 12-1 8-1*

*SEC Champs


#2 Oregon

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Colorado W 10-1 7-1
14 @ Oregon St W 11-1 8-1
15 Pac-12 Championship (Arizona St.) W 12-1 9-1*

*Pac-12 Champs


#3 Florida St

Current Record: 10-0
Current Conference Record: 7-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Boston College W 11-0 8-0
14 Florida W 12-0 8-0
15 ACC Championship (Duke) W 13-0 9-0*

*ACC Champs


#4 Mississippi St

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Vanderbilt W 10-1 6-1
14 @ Ole Miss L 10-2 6-2

#5 TCU

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
14 @ Texas W 10-1 7-1
15 Iowa St W 11-1 8-1*

*Big 12 Co-Champs


#6 Ohio St.

Current Record: 9-1
Current Conference Record: 6-0

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Indiana W 10-1 7-0
14 Michigan W 11-1 8-0
15 Big Ten Championship (Wisconsin) W 12-1 9-0*

*Big Ten Champs


#7 Baylor

Current Record: 8-1
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Oklahoma St W 9-1 6-1
14 Texas Tech W 10-1 7-1
15 K-State W 11-1 8-1**

*Big 12 Co-Champs and would be submitted to the Committee as the conference champion representative


#8 Ole Miss

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 4-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Arkansas W 9-2 5-2
14 Mississippi St W 10-2 6-2

#9 UCLA

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 USC L 8-3 5-3
14 Stanford W 9-3 6-3

#10 Georgia

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 6-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
14 Georgia Tech W 10-2 6-2

#11 Michigan St

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Rutgers W 9-2 6-1
14 @ Penn St W 10-2 7-1

#12 Kansas St

Current Record: 7-2
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ West Virginia Toss-Up 7-3 or 8-2 5-2 or 6-1
14 Kansas W 8-3 or 9-2 6-2 or 7-1
15 @ Baylor L 8-4 or 9-3 6-3 or 7-2

#13 Arizona St

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 Washington St W 9-2 6-2
14 @ Arizona W 10-2 7-2
15 Pac-12 Championship (Oregon) L 10-3 7-3

#15 Arizona

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-2

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Utah L 8-3 5-3
14 Arizona St L 8-4 5-4

#16 Wisconsin

Current Record: 8-2
Current Conference Record: 5-1

Remaining FBS Schedule

Week Opponent W/L Overall Record Conference Record
13 @ Iowa W 9-2 6-1
14 Minnesota W 10-2 7-1
15 Big Ten Championship (Ohio St.) L 10-3 7-2

Toss-Up Predictions

Kansas St.: West Virginia is tough at home. I’m picking the Mountaineers and K-State to finish 8-4


Projected Records

TEAM PROJ CONF REC PROJ FINAL REC W/ TOSS-UP PREDICTIONS
Florida St.* 9-0 13-0 13-0
Ohio St.* 9-0 12-1 12-1
Oregon* 9-1 12-1 12-1
Alabama* 8-1 12-1 12-1
Baylor*** 8-1 11-1 11-1
TCU** 8-1 11-1 11-1
Wisconsin 7-2 10-3 10-3
Arizona St. 7-3 10-3 10-3
Michigan St. 7-1 10-2 10-2
Georgia 6-2 10-2 10-2
Ole Miss 6-2 10-2 10-2
Mississippi St. 6-2 10-2 10-2
UCLA 6-3 9-3 9-3
Kansas St. 6-3 or 7-2 8-4 or 9-3 8-4
Arizona 5-4 8-4 8-4

*Conference Champions
**Conference Co-Champions
***Conference Co-Champions and submitted to Committee as Conference Champs


Playoff Candidates

Team Reason
Ohio St. Big Ten Champ
Oregon Pac-12 Champ
Florida St. ACC Champ
Alabama SEC Champ
TCU Big 12 Co-Champ
Baylor Big 12 Co-Champ
Arizona St Pac-12 Runners-Up
Wisconsin Big Ten Runners-Up
Duke ACC Runners-Up
Georgia SEC Runners-Up
Ole Miss/Mississippi St. SEC Bias

Who’s in?

Not in: ASU, Wisconsin, Duke, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi St.

A one-loss SEC champ is in: Alabama.
An undefeated Power 5 team is in: Florida St.
A one-loss Pac-12 champ is in: Oregon.

Three teams left for one spot. Let’s look at quality wins and each team’s loss.

Quality Wins

Rankings in (parenthesis) indicate a ranking at the time the game was played.
TCU: #25 Minnesota, (#4) #21 Oklahoma, (#15) Oklahoma St., (#20) West Virginia, (#7) #12 Kansas St.
Ohio St.: (#8) #11 Michigan St., #25 Minnesota, Projected: #16 Wisconsin
Baylor: (#9) #5 TCU, (#15) #21 Oklahoma, Projected: #12 K-State

Advantage: TCU

Best Losses

Rankings in (parenthesis) indicate a ranking at the time the game was played.
TCU: #7 Baylor
Ohio St.: UR Virginia Tech
Baylor: UR West Virginia

Advantage: TCU

Poor Game Control

I didn’t have a name for it last week (I called it “ugly wins”), but now Mr. Long of the Committee has called it “Game Control.” In other words, not struggling against inferior opponents.

TCU: (#5) #21 Oklahoma, (#20) West Virginia, UR Kansas
Ohio St.: UR Penn St.
Baylor: (#9) #5 TCU

Advantage: Baylor

Conclusion: Right now, since we can’t project HOW these teams might play the next few games and based on how the Committee has ranked these teams so far, I’m going to give the nod to TCU despite the head-to-head advantage Baylor has. Keep in mind, the way the last few games are played could definitely change that.

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