Plan Accordingly: Week 4 College Football Viewing Guide

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the best projected “watchability” score. All times AZ.

Thursday

Cincinnati at Memphis 4:30 PM ESPN

Friday

Boise St. at Virginia 5:00 PM ESPN
#21 Stanford at Oregon St. 7:00 PM FS1

Saturday Morning

#22 BYU at Michigan 9:00 AM ABC
#20 Georgia Tech at Duke 9:00 AM ESPN2
UCF at South Carolina 9:00 AM ESPNU

Saturday Early Afternoon

Tennessee at Florida 12:30 PM CBS
#24 Oklahoma St. at Texas 12:30 PM ESPN
Cal at Washington 1:00 PM PAC12

Saturday Late Afternoon

Arkansas vs. #14 Texas A&M (Arlington, TX) 4:00 PM ESPN
Mississippi St. at Auburn 4:30 PM ESPN2
#9 UCLA at #16 Arizona 5:00 PM ABC

Saturday Night

#19 USC at Arizona St. 7:30 PM ESPN
#18 Utah at #13 Oregon 5:45 PM FOX
Fresno St. at San Jose St. 7:30 PM CBSSN

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 4

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

Last week’s picks: 7-6 (.538); Upset picks: 0-1 (.000)

Overall: 16-12 (.571); Upsets: 2-4 (.333)

Without further ado: the best games of week 4. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
Tennessee at Florida Sat. 12:30 PM CBS Tenn*

3-Star Games

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
Mississippi St. at Auburn Sat. 4:30 PM ESPN2 Miss St.*
#22 BYU at Michigan Sat. 9:00 AM ABC UM**
Arkansas vs. #14 Texas A&M (in Arlington) Sat. 4:00 PM ESPN A&M
#9 UCLA at #16 Arizona Sat. 5:00 PM ABC UCLA
#24 Oklahoma St. at Texas Sat. 12:30 PM ESPN OSU
#19 USC at Arizona St. Sat. 7:30 PM ESPN ASU*
#18 Utah at #13 Oregon Sat. 5:45 PM FOX UO
Cal at Washington Sat. 1:00 PM PAC12 Cal

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking/underdog despite higher ranking

Plan Accordingly: Week 3 College Football Viewing Guide

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the best projected “watchability” score. All times AZ.

Thursday

#11 Clemson at Louisville 4:30 PM ESPN

Friday

#9 Florida State at Boston College 5:00 PM ESPN
New Mexico at Arizona St. 7:00 PM PAC12

Saturday Morning

#23 Northwestern at Duke 9:30 AM ACCN / ESPN3 (streaming)
Illinois at North Carolina 9:00 AM ESPN2
Central Michigan at Syracuse 9:30 AM FSN

Saturday Early Afternoon

#14 Georgia Tech at #8 Notre Dame 12:30 PM NBC
#18 Auburn at #13 LSU 12:30 PM CBS
Nebraska at Miami 12:30 PM ABC or ESPN2 (TBA)

Saturday Late Afternoon

Stanford at #6 USC 5:00 PM ABC
South Carolina at #7 Georgia 3:00 PM ESPN
Cal at Texas 4:30 PM FOX

Saturday Night

#15 Ole Miss at #2 Alabama 6:15 PM ESPN
#19 BYU at #10 UCLA 7:30 PM FS1
#21 Utah at Fresno St. 7:30 PM CBSSN

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 3

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

Last week’s picks: 4-2 (.667); Upset picks: 2-1 (.667)

Overall: 9-6 (.600); Upsets: 2-3 (.400)

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
#14 Georgia Tech at #8 Notre Dame Sat. 12:30 PM NBC Georgia Tech**

5-Star Games

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
#15 Ole Miss at #2 Alabama Sat. 6:15 PM ESPN Bama
Stanford at #6 USC Sat. 5:00 PM ABC USC
#18 Auburn at #13 LSU Sat. 12:30 PM CBS LSU

4-Star Games

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
none

3-Star Games

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
Nebraska at Miami Sat. 12:30 PM ABC or ESPN2 (TBA) Miami
#23 Northwestern at Duke Sat. 9:30 AM ACCN / ESPN3 Duke**
Pitt at Iowa Sat. 5:00 PM BTN+ Pitt*
South Carolina at #7 Georgia Sat. 3:00 PM ESPN UGA
Cal at Texas Sat. 4:30 PM FOX Cal
#19 BYU at #10 UCLA Sat. 7:30 PM FS1 UCLA
Texas Tech at Arkansas Sat. 4:00 PM ESPN2 Arkansas
Louisiana Tech at K-State Sat. 12:00 PM FSN K-State
Illinois at North Carolina Sat. 9:00 AM ESPN2 UNC

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking

Plan Accordingly: Week 2 College Football Viewing Guide

Week two isn’t looking as great as last week, but we still should have some great football to watch.

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the best. All times AZ.

Thursday

Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky 5:00 PM FS1

Friday

Utah St. at #24 Utah 6:00 PM ESPN2
Miami at Florida Atlantic 5:00 PM FS1

Saturday Morning

Houston at Louisville 9:00 AM FSN
Appalachian St. at #12 Clemson 9:30 AM ESPN3 (Streaming)
Wake Forest at Syracuse 9:30 AM ACCN / ESPN3 (Streaming)

Saturday Early Afternoon

#9 Notre Dame at Virginia 12:30 PM ABC
Toledo at #18 Arkansas 1:00 PM SECN+
Minnesota at Colorado St. 12:30 PM CBSSN

Saturday Late Afternoon

#7 Oregon at #5 Michigan St. 5:00 PM ABC
#19 Oklahoma at #23 Tennessee 3:00 PM ESPN
Temple at Cincinnati 5:00 PM ESPNEWS

Saturday Night

#14 LSU at Mississippi St. 6:15 PM ESPN
#20 Boise St. at BYU 7:15 PM ESPN2
UCF at Stanford 7:30 PM FS1

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 2

 

Only six games make the list this week, but we have what look to be three great ones.

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

Last week’s picks: 5-4 (.556); Upset picks: 0-2 (.000)

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.

Five-Star Game / Game of the Week

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
#7 Oregon at #5 Michigan St. Saturday 5:00 PM ABC MSU

Four-Star Games

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
1. #19 Oklahoma at #23 Tennessee Saturday 3:00 PM ESPN Tennessee*
2. #14 LSU at #25 Mississippi St. Saturday 6:15 PM ESPN LSU

Three-Star Games

GAME DAY TIME TV PICK
1. Temple at Cincinnati Saturday 5:00 PM ESPNEWS Temple*
2. #20 Boise St. at BYU Saturday 7:15 PM ESPN2 Boise St.
3. Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky Thursday 5:00 PM FS1 WKU*

*Upset picks

Arizona State Football Schedule Ranked Using Advanced Stats

Using Brian Fremeau‘s, Bill Connelly‘s, and ESPN‘s advanced stats rating systems, I have ranked ASU’s 2015 games from worst to best in terms of the projected quality of the opponent and the closeness of the matchup. In other words, the games are ranked by projecting which ones are going to be the most exciting to watch. ASU’s rating is added to the opponent’s rating to get an idea of the overall quality of the two teams. Then, the ratings are subtracted from each other to show how well the two teams match up.

This is not a ranking of ASU’s opponents. This is a ranking of game quality using opponent strength with how well ASU matches up with each team. A good team that ASU matches up well with will get a high ranking. A good team that outmatches ASU significantly will get a lower ranking, and vice versa.

The advanced stats ratings and nation-wide rankings are given for each team. Also, rating sums and differences (ASU’s rating plus/minus the opponent’s) are ranked 1-12 based on where they fall in ASU’s schedule.

Here are ASU’s projected advanced stat ratings.

FEI (Fremeau) FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ (Connelly) S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI (ESPN) FPI Nat’l Rk
.170 #14 12.7 #23 13.4 #22

12. Cal Poly

Duh.

11. New Mexico

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.143 #110 -10.1 #98 -10.8 #110

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.027 #11
S&P+ 2.6 #11
FPI 2.6 #11

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.313 #11
S&P+ 22.8 #11
FPI 24.2 #11

10. Colorado

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.085 #94 -2.5 #69 0.5 #66

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.085 #10
S&P+ 10.2 #10
FPI 13.9 #10

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.255 #10
S&P+ 15.2 #10
FPI 12.9 #10

9. Washington State – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.047 #79 -1.2 #64 2.5 #55

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.123 #9
S&P+ 11.5 #9
FPI 15.9 #9

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.217 #9
S&P+ 13.9 #9
FPI 10.9 #9

8. Washington – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.025 #53 0.9 #56 3.7 #49

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.195 #7
S&P+ 13.6 #8
FPI 17.1 #8

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.145 #7
S&P+ 11.8 #8
FPI 9.7 #8

7. Cal – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.02 #71 3.6 #50 11.3 #32

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.150 #8
S&P+ 16.3 #7
FPI 24.7 #6

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.190 #8
S&P+ 9.1 #7
FPI 2.1 #2

6. Utah – 3-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.114 #27 6.5 #41 9.1 #41

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.284 #5
S&P+ 19.2 #6
FPI 22.5 #7

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.056 #4
S&P+ 6.2 #4
FPI 4.3 #4

5. Tucson – 3-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.095 #31 8.3 #36 11.8 #29

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.265 #6
S&P+ 21.0 #5
FPI 25.2 #5

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.075 #5
S&P+ 4.4 #3
FPI 1.6 #1

4. Oregon – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
#3 20.9 #4 20.8 #8 #3

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI .416 #1
S&P+ 33.6 #1
FPI 34.2 #2

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.076 #6
S&P+ 8.2 #6
FPI 7.4 #6

3. Texas A&M – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.119 #26 14.1 #21 22.5 #6

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI .289 #4
S&P+ 26.8 #4
FPI 35.9 #1

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.051 #3
S&P+ 1.4 #1
FPI 9.1 #7

2. UCLA – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.203 #6 19.6 #6 20 #12

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.373 #2
S&P+ 32.3 #2
FPI 33.4 #4

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.033 #2
S&P+ 6.9 #5
FPI 6.6 #4

1. USC – 5-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.166 #15 16.5 #12 20.5 #9

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.336 #3
S&P+ 29.2 #3
FPI 33.9 #3

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.004 #1
S&P+ 3.8 #2
FPI 7.1 #5