Arizona State Football Schedule Ranked Using Advanced Stats

Using Brian Fremeau‘s, Bill Connelly‘s, and ESPN‘s advanced stats rating systems, I have ranked ASU’s 2015 games from worst to best in terms of the projected quality of the opponent and the closeness of the matchup. In other words, the games are ranked by projecting which ones are going to be the most exciting to watch. ASU’s rating is added to the opponent’s rating to get an idea of the overall quality of the two teams. Then, the ratings are subtracted from each other to show how well the two teams match up.

This is not a ranking of ASU’s opponents. This is a ranking of game quality using opponent strength with how well ASU matches up with each team. A good team that ASU matches up well with will get a high ranking. A good team that outmatches ASU significantly will get a lower ranking, and vice versa.

The advanced stats ratings and nation-wide rankings are given for each team. Also, rating sums and differences (ASU’s rating plus/minus the opponent’s) are ranked 1-12 based on where they fall in ASU’s schedule.

Here are ASU’s projected advanced stat ratings.

FEI (Fremeau) FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ (Connelly) S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI (ESPN) FPI Nat’l Rk
.170 #14 12.7 #23 13.4 #22

12. Cal Poly

Duh.

11. New Mexico

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.143 #110 -10.1 #98 -10.8 #110

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.027 #11
S&P+ 2.6 #11
FPI 2.6 #11

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.313 #11
S&P+ 22.8 #11
FPI 24.2 #11

10. Colorado

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.085 #94 -2.5 #69 0.5 #66

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.085 #10
S&P+ 10.2 #10
FPI 13.9 #10

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.255 #10
S&P+ 15.2 #10
FPI 12.9 #10

9. Washington State – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.047 #79 -1.2 #64 2.5 #55

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.123 #9
S&P+ 11.5 #9
FPI 15.9 #9

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.217 #9
S&P+ 13.9 #9
FPI 10.9 #9

8. Washington – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.025 #53 0.9 #56 3.7 #49

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.195 #7
S&P+ 13.6 #8
FPI 17.1 #8

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.145 #7
S&P+ 11.8 #8
FPI 9.7 #8

7. Cal – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.02 #71 3.6 #50 11.3 #32

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.150 #8
S&P+ 16.3 #7
FPI 24.7 #6

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.190 #8
S&P+ 9.1 #7
FPI 2.1 #2

6. Utah – 3-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.114 #27 6.5 #41 9.1 #41

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.284 #5
S&P+ 19.2 #6
FPI 22.5 #7

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.056 #4
S&P+ 6.2 #4
FPI 4.3 #4

5. Tucson – 3-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.095 #31 8.3 #36 11.8 #29

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.265 #6
S&P+ 21.0 #5
FPI 25.2 #5

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.075 #5
S&P+ 4.4 #3
FPI 1.6 #1

4. Oregon – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
#3 20.9 #4 20.8 #8 #3

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI .416 #1
S&P+ 33.6 #1
FPI 34.2 #2

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.076 #6
S&P+ 8.2 #6
FPI 7.4 #6

3. Texas A&M – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.119 #26 14.1 #21 22.5 #6

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI .289 #4
S&P+ 26.8 #4
FPI 35.9 #1

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.051 #3
S&P+ 1.4 #1
FPI 9.1 #7

2. UCLA – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.203 #6 19.6 #6 20 #12

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.373 #2
S&P+ 32.3 #2
FPI 33.4 #4

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.033 #2
S&P+ 6.9 #5
FPI 6.6 #4

1. USC – 5-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.166 #15 16.5 #12 20.5 #9

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.336 #3
S&P+ 29.2 #3
FPI 33.9 #3

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.004 #1
S&P+ 3.8 #2
FPI 7.1 #5

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