Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 9

On paper, this looks to be the weakest week of the year so far. There are no five- OR four-star games. That usually means we’ll see some wild upsets and finishes.

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

The percentages below are projected “watchability” percentage scores. This is the likelihood that the game will be “good.” Five-star games will have a percentage of 90% or greater, four-star will be 75-89%, and three-stars will be 55-74%.


All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 13-3 .813 3-1 .750
Overall 59-33 .641 9-11 .450

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.


West Virginia at #5 TCU 73% Thu. 4:30 PM FS1 TCU

3-Star Games

#11 Florida vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) 73% Sat. 12:30 PM CBS UF
North Carolina at #23 Pitt 71% Thu. 4:00 PM ESPN UNC**
USC at Cal 70% Sat. 12:00 PM FOX USC
Oregon at Arizona St. 67% Thu. 7:30 PM ESPN ASU
Illinois at Penn St. 67% Sat. 9:00 AM ESPN2 PSU
Virginia Tech at Boston College 61% Sat. 9:30 AM ESPN3 (Streaming) BC*
#12 Oklahoma St at Texas Tech 59% Sat. 12:30 PM ESPN OSU
#3 Clemson at NC State 56% Sat. 12:30 PM ABC Clemson
Miami at #22 Duke 56% Sat. 4:00 PM ESPNU Duke

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking

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