Plan Accordingly: College Football Bowl Viewing Guide – NEW YEAR’S EDITION

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the highest projected “watchability.” All times AZ.

NEW YEAR’S EVE (THU., DEC. 31)

Peach: #9 Florida St. vs. #18 Houston
10:00 AM, ESPN

Orange: #1 Clemson vs. #4 Oklahoma
2:00 PM, ESPN
College Football Playoff Game / BOWL OF THE YEAR / Upset Special / Overtime Bowl

Cotton Bowl Classic: #2 Alabama vs. #3 Michigan St.
6:00 PM, ESPN
College Football Playoff Game

NEW YEAR’S DAY (FRI., JAN. 1)

Morning

Fiesta: #8 Notre Dame vs. #7 Ohio St.
11:00 AM, ESPN
Overtime Bowl

Citrus: #19 Florida vs. #14 Michigan
11:00 AM, ABC
Upset Special

Outback: #13 Northwestern vs. #23 Tennessee
10:00 AM, ESPN2
Upset Special

Afternoon/Night

Rose Bowl Game: #5 Iowa vs. #6 Stanford
3:00 PM, ESPN

Sugar: #16 Oklahoma St. vs. #12 Ole Miss
6:30 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY (JAN. 2)

Gator: Georgia vs. Penn St.
10:00 AM, ESPN

Liberty: Arkansas vs. K-State
1:20 PM, ESPN

Alamo: #15 Oregon vs. #11 TCU
4:45 PM, ESPN

Cactus: Arizona St. vs. West Virginia
8:15 PM, ESPN

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Plan Accordingly: College Football Bowl Viewing Guide – AFTER-CHRISTMAS EDITION

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the highest projected “watchability.” All times AZ.

SATURDAY (DEC. 26)

Morning

St. Petersburg: Marshall vs. UConn
9:00 AM, ESPN

Midday

Sun: Miami vs. Washington St.
12:00 PM, CBS

Heart of Dallas: Southern Miss vs. Washington
12:20 PM, ESPN

Pinstripe: Duke vs. Indiana
1:30 PM, ABC

Afternoon

Independence: Tulsa vs. Virginia Tech
3:45 PM, ESPN
Blowout Bowl

Night

San Francisco: Nebraska vs. UCLA
7:15 PM, ESPN

MONDAY (DEC. 28)

Military Bowl: #21 Navy vs. Pitt
12:30 PM, ESPN

Quick Lane: Central Michigan vs. Minnesota
3:00 PM, ESPN2

TUESDAY (DEC. 29)

Morning

Armed Forces: Air Force vs. Cal
12:00 PM, ESPN

Afternoon

Russell Athletic: #17 Baylor vs. #10 North Carolina
3:30 PM, ESPN
Upset Special

Arizona: Colorado St. vs. Nevada
5:30 PM, streaming?

Night

Texas: #20 LSU vs. Texas Tech
7:00 PM, ESPN

WEDNESDAY (DEC. 30)

Birmingham: Auburn vs. Memphis
10:00 AM, ESPN

Belk: Mississippi St. vs. NC State
1:30 PM, ESPN

Music City: Louisville vs. Texas A&M
5:00 PM, ESPN

Holiday: #25 USC vs. Wisconsin
8:30 PM, ESPN

Plan Accordingly: College Football Bowl Viewing Guide – PRE-CHRISTMAS EDITION

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the highest projected “watchability.” All times AZ.

SATURDAY (DEC. 19)

Midday

Las Vegas: BYU vs. #22 Utah
1:30 PM, ABC
Upset Special

New Mexico: Arizona vs. New Mexico
12:00 PM, ESPN

Afternoon

Camellia: Appalachian St. vs. Ohio
3:30 PM, ESPN
Blowout Bowl

Cure Bowl: Georgia St. vs. San Jose St.
5:00 PM, CBSSN
Toilet Bowl

Night

New Orleans: Arkansas St. vs. Louisiana Tech
7:00 PM, ESPN
Overtime Bowl

MONDAY (DEC. 21)

Miami Beach: South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
12:30 PM, ESPN

TUESDAY (DEC. 22)

Idaho Potato: Akron vs. Utah St.
1:30 PM, ESPN

Boca Raton: #24 Temple vs. Toledo
5:00 PM, ESPN
G5 Bowl of the Year / Upset Special

WEDNESDAY (DEC. 23)

Poinsettia: Boise St. vs. Northern Illinois
2:30 PM, ESPN

Go Daddy Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
6:00 PM, ESPN
Blowout Bowl

THURSDAY (DEC. 24)

Bahamas: Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan
10:00 AM, ESPN

Hawai’i: Cincinnati vs. San Diego St.
6:00 PM, ESPN
Overtime Bowl

Bowl Teams by the Numbers

Using a composite ranking of Bill Connelly’s, Brian Fremeau’s, and ESPN’s systems, here’s some info about this year’s bowl-bound (and not-bowl-bound) teams.

Composite ranking of the team in parenthesis

Best Team Not in the College Football Playoff: Ohio St. (#4)
Worst Team in the CFP: Michigan St. (#8) – rated worse than four teams that not in the CFP

Worst Team in a New Year’s Six Bowl: Houston (#32) – rated worse than 20 teams that are not in the NY6 bowls
Best Teams Not in a New Year’s Six Bowl: Baylor (#10), TCU (#11), LSU (#12) – rated better than three teams that are in NY6 bowls

Worst Bowl Teams:
Nevada (#99) – rated worse than 19 non-bowl teams
New Mexico (#98) – rated worse than 19 non-bowl teams
Tulsa (#95) – rated worse than 17 non-bowl teams

Best Non-Bowl Teams:
Georgia Tech (#56) – rated better than 25 bowl teams
Texas (#62) – rated better than 19 bowl teams
Illinois (#68) – rated better than 15 bowl teams

College Football Superlatives – BOWLS EDITION

Here are some of the projected best and worst of the upcoming bowl games.

BOWLS OF THE YEAR

Power 5

Orange (CFP): #1 Clemson vs. #4 Oklahoma
Fiesta: #8 Notre Dame vs. #7 Ohio St.

Group of 5

Boca Raton: #24 Temple vs. Toledo
Miami Beach: South Florida vs. Western Kentucky

UPSET SPECIALS

Games with a ranked team most likely to be upset
Outback: #13 Northwestern vs. #23 Tennessee
Russell Athletic: #17 Baylor vs. #10 North Carolina
Citrus: #19 Florida vs. #14 Michigan
Las Vegas: BYU vs. #22 Utah
Boca Raton: #24 Temple vs. Toledo
Orange: #1 Clemson vs. #4 Oklahoma

BEST GAMES W/ TWO UN-RANKED TEAMS

Power 5

San Francisco: Nebraska vs. UCLA
Belk: Mississippi St. vs. NC State
Music City: Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Gator: Georgia vs. Penn St.
Birmingham: Auburn vs. Memphis
Cactus: Arizona St. vs. West Virginia
Sun: Miami vs. Washington St.
Heart of Dallas: Southern Miss vs. Washington

Group of 5

Miami Beach: South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Poinsettia: Boise St. vs. Northern Illinois
Hawai’i: Cincinnati vs. San Diego St.
New Orleans: Arkansas St. vs. Louisiana Tech
Go Daddy: Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas: Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan
St. Petersburg: Marshall vs. UConn
Camellia: Appalachian St. vs. Ohio
Idaho Potato: Akron vs. Utah St.

OVERTIME BOWLS

Most likely to go into overtime / Best Match-Up

Power 5

Orange: #1 Clemson vs. #4 Oklahoma
Fiesta: #8 Notre Dame vs. #7 Ohio St.

Group of 5

New Orleans: Arkansas St. vs. Louisiana Tech
Hawai’i: Cincinnati vs. San Diego St.

BLOWOUT BOWLS

Most likely to have a huge margin of victory / Worst Match-Up

Power 5

Liberty: Arkansas over K-State
Independence: Virginia Tech over Tulsa

Group of 5

Go Daddy: Bowling Green over Georgia Southern
Camellia: Appalachian St. over Ohio

TOILET BOWLS

Worst combined ratings of the two teams

Power 5

Pinstripe: Duke vs. Indiana

Group of 5

Cure: Georgia St. vs. San Jose St.

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – BOWL EDITION

Bowls are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star bowls won’t be given much attention.

Bowls are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-0 1.000 0-0 N/A
Overall 116-66 .637 15-17 .469

Without further ado: the BOWLS. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

BOWL OF THE YEAR

Orange: #1 CLEMSON*** vs. #4 Oklahoma
Thu., Dec. 31, 2:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Special / Overtime Bowl

FIVE-STAR BOWLS

National Championship Possibility: #2 ALABAMA vs. #1 Clemson
Mon., Jan. 11, 6:30 PM, ESPN

National Championship Possibility: #2 ALABAMA vs. #4 Oklahoma
Mon., Jan. 11, 6:30 PM, ESPN

Fiesta: #8 Notre Dame vs. #7 OHIO ST.
Fri., Jan. 1, 11:00 AM, ESPN
Upset Special / Overtime Bowl

FOUR-STAR BOWLS

National Championship Possibility: #3 Michigan St. vs. #1 CLEMSON
Mon., Jan. 11, 6:30 PM, ESPN

Cotton Bowl Classic: #2 ALABAMA vs. #3 Michigan St.
Thu., Dec. 31, 6:00 PM, ESPN

National Championship Possibility: #3 Michigan St. vs. #4 OKLAHOMA
Mon., Jan. 11, 6:30 PM, ESPN

Citrus: #19 Florida vs. #14 MICHIGAN
Fri., Jan. 1, 11:00 AM, ABC
Upset Special

Russell Athletic: #17 Baylor vs. #10 NORTH CAROLINA***
Tue., Dec. 29, 3:30 PM, ESPN
Upset Special

Alamo: #15 Oregon vs. #11 TCU
Sat., Jan. 2, 4:45 PM, ESPN

THREE-STAR GAMES

Las Vegas: BYU vs. #22 UTAH
Sat., Dec. 19, 1:30 PM, ABC
Upset Special

Holiday: #25 USC vs. Wisconsin
Wed., Dec. 30, 8:30 PM, ESPN

Boca Raton: #24 Temple vs. TOLEDO*
Tue., Dec. 22, 5:00 PM, ESPN
G5 Bowl of the Year / Upset Special

Sugar: #16 Oklahoma St. vs. #12 OLE MISS
Fri., Jan. 1, 6:30 PM, ESPN

Rose Bowl Game: #5 Iowa vs. #6 STANFORD
Fri., Jan. 1, 3:00 PM, ESPN

San Francisco: Nebraska vs. UCLA
Sat., Dec. 26, 7:15 PM, ESPN

Belk: MISSISSIPPI ST. vs. NC State
Wed., Dec. 30, 1:30 PM, ESPN

Music City: Louisville vs. TEXAS A&M
Wed., Dec. 30, 5:00 PM, ESPN

Military Bowl: #21 NAVY vs. Pitt
Mon., Dec. 28, 12:30 PM, ESPN

Gator: GEORGIA vs. Penn St.
Sat., Jan. 2, 10:00 AM, ESPN

Birmingham: Auburn vs. MEMPHIS*
Wed., Dec. 30, 10:00 AM, ESPN

Peach: #9 FLORIDA ST. vs. #18 Houston
Thu., Dec. 31, 10:00 AM, ESPN

Miami Beach: South Florida vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mon., Dec. 21, 12:30 PM, ESPN

Cactus: ARIZONA ST. vs. West Virginia
Sat., Jan. 2, 8:15 PM, ESPN

Hawai’i: Cincinnati vs. SAN DIEGO ST.*
Thu., Dec. 24, 6:00 PM, ESPN
Overtime Bowl

Poinsettia: BOISE ST. vs. Northern Illinois
Wed., Dec. 23, 2:30 PM, ESPN

Sun: MIAMI* vs. Washington St.
Sat., Dec. 26, 12:00 PM, CBS

Texas: #20 LSU vs. Texas Tech
Tue., Dec. 29, 7:00 PM, ESPN

New Orleans: Arkansas St. vs. LOUISIANA TECH*
Sat., Dec. 19, 7:00 PM, ESPN
Overtime Bowl

Heart of Dallas: Southern Miss vs. WASHINGTON
Sat., Dec. 26, 12:20 PM, ESPN

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking

College Football Playoff Ranking Using Advanced Stats – Week 14

This is what the College Football Playoff rankings would look like if the committee was comprised of the advanced stat ratings by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and ESPN. I applied the Committee’s voting process with a small amount of human intervention:

  • Two-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until the top-3 had been ranked.
  • Three-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until all undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams from the original consideration list had been exhausted.

Most Overrated Compared to Actual CFP Rankings

  1. Iowa – 12 spots
  2. Michigan St. – 4 spots
  3. Michigan – 3 spots

Most Underrated

  1. Western Kentucky – Not Ranked
  2. Baylor – 7 spots
  3. Florida – 5 spots

TOP FOUR

RK TEAM REC CHG* CFP RK
#1 Alabama 11-1 +1 #2
#2 Oklahoma 11-1 +1 #3
#3 Clemson 12-0 -2 #1
#4 Ohio St. 11-1 #6

FIRST OUT

#5 Baylor 9-2 +1 #12
#6 Notre Dame 10-2 -1 #8

THE REST

#7 Stanford 10-2 +3 #7
#8 Florida St. 10-2 +8 #9
#9 Michigan St. 11-1 +4 #5
#10 TCU 10-2 +5 #11
#11 North Carolina 11-1 +3 #10
#12 Ole Miss 9-3 +13 #13
#13 Florida 10-2 -6 #18
#14 Oklahoma St. 10-2 -5 #17
#15 Western Kentucky 10-2 UR N/A
#16 Iowa 12-0 +3 #4
#17 LSU 8-3 -5 #21
#18 Michigan 9-3 -7 #15
#19 Navy 9-2 -11 #23
#20 Houston 11-1 +3 #19
#21 Georgia 9-3 UR N/A
#22 USC 8-4 +2 #20
#23 Toledo 9-2 UR N/A
#24 Tennessee 8-4 UR #25
#25 Arkansas 7-5 UR N/A

*Change from Week 12

Here’s what the rankings would look like if I applied the process straight-up without regard to the record of any of the teams.

#1 Alabama 11-1
#2 Oklahoma 11-1
#3 Clemson 10-0
#4 Ohio St. 10-0
#5 Ole Miss 9-3
#6 Baylor 9-2
#7 Notre Dame 10-2
#8 Stanford 10-2
#9 TCU 10-2
#10 Florida St. 10-2
#11 Michigan St. 11-1
#12 USC 8-4
#13 Tennessee 8-4
#14 LSU 8-3
#15 Michigan 9-3
#16 North Carolina 11-1
#17 Navy 9-2
#18 Arkansas 7-5
#19 Florida 10-2
#20 West Virginia 7-4
#21 Western Kentucky 10-2
T-#22 Iowa 12-0
T-#22 Mississippi St. 8-4
T-#22 Washington 6-6
#25 Oklahoma St. 10-2