College Football Playoff Ranking Using Advanced Stats – Week 14

This is what the College Football Playoff rankings would look like if the committee was comprised of the advanced stat ratings by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and ESPN. I applied the Committee’s voting process with a small amount of human intervention:

  • Two-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until the top-3 had been ranked.
  • Three-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until all undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams from the original consideration list had been exhausted.

Most Overrated Compared to Actual CFP Rankings

  1. Iowa – 12 spots
  2. Michigan St. – 4 spots
  3. Michigan – 3 spots

Most Underrated

  1. Western Kentucky – Not Ranked
  2. Baylor – 7 spots
  3. Florida – 5 spots

TOP FOUR

RK TEAM REC CHG* CFP RK
#1 Alabama 11-1 +1 #2
#2 Oklahoma 11-1 +1 #3
#3 Clemson 12-0 -2 #1
#4 Ohio St. 11-1 #6

FIRST OUT

#5 Baylor 9-2 +1 #12
#6 Notre Dame 10-2 -1 #8

THE REST

#7 Stanford 10-2 +3 #7
#8 Florida St. 10-2 +8 #9
#9 Michigan St. 11-1 +4 #5
#10 TCU 10-2 +5 #11
#11 North Carolina 11-1 +3 #10
#12 Ole Miss 9-3 +13 #13
#13 Florida 10-2 -6 #18
#14 Oklahoma St. 10-2 -5 #17
#15 Western Kentucky 10-2 UR N/A
#16 Iowa 12-0 +3 #4
#17 LSU 8-3 -5 #21
#18 Michigan 9-3 -7 #15
#19 Navy 9-2 -11 #23
#20 Houston 11-1 +3 #19
#21 Georgia 9-3 UR N/A
#22 USC 8-4 +2 #20
#23 Toledo 9-2 UR N/A
#24 Tennessee 8-4 UR #25
#25 Arkansas 7-5 UR N/A

*Change from Week 12

Here’s what the rankings would look like if I applied the process straight-up without regard to the record of any of the teams.

#1 Alabama 11-1
#2 Oklahoma 11-1
#3 Clemson 10-0
#4 Ohio St. 10-0
#5 Ole Miss 9-3
#6 Baylor 9-2
#7 Notre Dame 10-2
#8 Stanford 10-2
#9 TCU 10-2
#10 Florida St. 10-2
#11 Michigan St. 11-1
#12 USC 8-4
#13 Tennessee 8-4
#14 LSU 8-3
#15 Michigan 9-3
#16 North Carolina 11-1
#17 Navy 9-2
#18 Arkansas 7-5
#19 Florida 10-2
#20 West Virginia 7-4
#21 Western Kentucky 10-2
T-#22 Iowa 12-0
T-#22 Mississippi St. 8-4
T-#22 Washington 6-6
#25 Oklahoma St. 10-2

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