Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 5

Martin Stadium, Pullman, Washington

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

NOTE: The computer ratings are going to be a little weird until weeks 8-10 due to the hurricane cancellations. Florida St., for example, is probably rated too highly because the computers only have two games of data on them (compared with four for most other teams) which causes a higher reliance on their pre-season projections. Once the pre-season projections are phased out equally among all teams, we’ll get a better representation of where everyone is at.

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 1 1 1 0
2 Ohio St. 2 8 2 0
3 Oklahoma 4 5 3 -1
4 Clemson 6 3 4 0
5 Florida St. 3 6 12 0
6 Penn St. 7 10 7 0
7 Wisconsin 5 15 6 0
8 Washington 8 13 5 0
9 TCU 17 4 8 +1
10 Georgia 14 2 14 +3
11 USC 10 7 15 -2
12 Michigan 9 9 17 +2
13 Stanford 16 12 9 -1
14 Notre Dame 19 11 10 N/A
15 Oklahoma St. 15 14 11 -4

Dropped from rankings: Auburn

WEEK 4 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 9-4 .692 0-1 .000
Overall 30-16 .652 2-5 .286

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#5 USC at #16 Washington St.
Fri., Sep. 29, 7:30 PM, ESPN

THREE-STAR GAMES

#2 CLEMSON at #12 Virginia Tech
Sat., Sep. 30, 5:00 PM, ABC

#24 Mississippi St. at #13 AUBURN
Sat., Sep. 30, 3:00 PM, ESPN

IOWA* at Michigan St.
Sat., Sep. 30, 1:00 PM, FOX

#14 MIAMI at Duke
Fri., Sep. 29, 4:00 PM, ESPN

MEMPHIS* at UCF
Sat., Sep. 30, 4:00 PM, ESPN2

TEXAS at Iowa St.
Thu., Sep. 28, 5:00 PM, ESPN

Colorado at UCLA
Sat., Sep. 30, 7:30 PM, ESPN2

North Carolina at GEORGIA TECH
Sat., Sep. 30, 9:00 AM, ESPN2

#15 OKLAHOMA ST. at Texas Tech
Sat., Sep. 30, 5:00 PM, FOX

South Carolina at TEXAS A&M
Sat., Sep. 30, 4:30 PM, SECN

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Texas at Iowa St.
5:00 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY PRIME TIME

#14 Miami at Duke
4:00 PM, ESPN

BYU at Utah St.
5:00 PM, CBSSN

Nebraska at Illinois
5:00 PM, FS1

FRIDAY NIGHT

#5 USC at #16 Washington St.
7:30 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY MORNING

North Carolina at Georgia Tech
9:00 AM, ESPN2

Syracuse at NC State
9:00 AM, ACCN/CW

Northwestern at #10 Wisconsin
9:00 AM, ABC

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Arizona St. at Stanford
1:00 PM, PAC12

Iowa at Michigan St. 
1:00 PM, FOX

#7 Georgia at Tennessee
12:30 PM, CBS

Baylor at K-State
12:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

#24 Mississippi St. at #13 Auburn
3:00 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#2 Clemson at #12 Virginia Tech
5:00 PM, ABC

Memphis at UCF
4:00 PM, ESPN2

#15 Oklahoma St. at Texas Tech
5:00 PM, FOX

SATURDAY NIGHT

Colorado at UCLA
7:30 PM, ESPN2

Cal at Oregon
7:30 PM, FS1

Northern Illinois at #19 San Diego St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN

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Projecting the ACC: Team-by-Team Schedule Predictions

TL;DR – Clemson wins the conference and goes to the Playoff. Florida St. enjoys another trip to the Orange Bowl.

The predictions were based on the same advanced statistics ratings I use to rate each week’s games. Home teams were given a slight increase in ratings for home-field advantage.

Projected Final Standings


Atlantic

Team Overall Conference
Clemson 12-0 8-0
Florida St. 9-2 7-1
Louisville 10-2 6-2
NC State 6-6 4-4
Wake Forest 6-6 2-6
Syracuse 4-8 2-6
Boston College 3-9 0-8

Coastal

Team Overall Conference
Miami 9-2 7-1
Georgia Tech 7-4 6-2
Virginia Tech 9-3 5-3
North Carolina 5-7 3-5
Duke 6-6 2-6
Pitt 3-9 2-6
Virginia 2-10 0-8

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION

Clemson OVER Miami
 

ACC ATLANTIC


BOSTON COLLEGE

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 3-9
CONFERENCE: 0-8 (7th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Clemson
WIN vs. Central Michigan
LOSS vs. Virginia Tech
LOSS at Louisville
LOSS at Virginia
LOSS vs. Florida St.
LOSS vs. NC State
WIN vs. UConn (Fenway Park)
LOSS at Syracuse

CLEMSON

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 13-0
CONFERENCE: 9-0 (1st in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Boston College
WIN at Virginia Tech
WIN vs. Wake Forest
WIN at Syracuse
WIN vs. Georgia Tech
WIN at NC State
WIN vs. Florida St.
WIN vs. The Citadel
WIN at South Carolina
WIN vs. Miami (Conference Championship Game)

FLORIDA ST.

CURRENT: 0-1

OVERALL: 9-2
CONFERENCE: 7-1 (2nd in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. NC State
WIN vs. Wake Forest
WIN at Miami (FL)
WIN at Duke
WIN vs. Louisville
WIN at Boston College
WIN vs. Syracuse
LOSS at Clemson
WIN vs. Delaware St.
WIN at Florida

LOUISVILLE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 10-2
CONFERENCE: 6-2 (3rd in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Kent St.
WIN vs. Murray St.
WIN at NC State
WIN vs. Boston College
LOSS at Florida St.
WIN at Wake Forest
WIN vs. Virginia
WIN vs. Syracuse
WIN at Kentucky

NC STATE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 4-4 (4th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Florida St.
WIN vs. Syracuse
LOSS vs. Louisville
WIN at Pitt
LOSS at Notre Dame
LOSS vs. Clemson
WIN at Boston College
LOSS at Wake Forest
WIN vs. North Carolina

SYRACUSE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 4-8
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (6th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at LSU
LOSS at NC State
WIN vs. Pitt
LOSS vs. Clemson
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS at Florida St.
LOSS vs. Wake Forest
LOSS at Louisville
WIN vs. Boston College

WAKE FOREST

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (5th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN at Appalachian St.
LOSS vs. Florida St.
LOSS at Clemson
LOSS at Georgia Tech
LOSS vs. Louisville
LOSS at Notre Dame
WIN at Syracuse
LOSS vs. NC State
WIN vs. Duke

 

ACC COASTAL


DUKE

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (5th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at North Carolina
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)
WIN at Virginia
LOSS vs. Florida St.
WIN vs. Pitt
LOSS at Virginia Tech
WIN at Army
LOSS vs. Georgia Tech
LOSS at Wake Forest

GEORGIA TECH

CURRENT: 1-1

OVERALL: 7-4
CONFERENCE: 6-2 (2nd in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Pitt
WIN vs. North Carolina
LOSS at Miami (FL)
WIN vs. Wake Forest
LOSS at Clemson
WIN at Virginia
WIN vs. Virginia Tech
WIN at Duke
LOSS vs. Georgia

MIAMI

CURRENT: 1-0

OVERALL: 9-3
CONFERENCE: 7-2 (1st in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Toledo
WIN at Duke
LOSS at Florida St.
WIN vs. Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Syracuse
WIN at North Carolina
WIN vs. Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Notre Dame
WIN vs. Virginia
WIN at Pitt
LOSS vs. Clemson (Conference Championship)

NORTH CAROLINA

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 5-7
CONFERENCE: 3-5 (4th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Duke
LOSS at Georgia Tech
LOSS vs. Notre Dame
WIN vs. Virginia
LOSS at Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)
WIN at Pitt
WIN vs. Western Carolina
LOSS at NC State

PITT

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 3-9
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (6th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Rice
LOSS at Syracuse
LOSS vs. NC State
LOSS at Duke
WIN vs. Virginia
LOSS vs. North Carolina
LOSS at Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)

VIRGINIA

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 2-10
CONFERENCE: 0-8 (7th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Boise St.
LOSS vs. Duke
LOSS at North Carolina
LOSS vs. Boston College
LOSS at Pitt
LOSS vs. Georgia Tech
LOSS at Louisville
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS vs. Virginia Tech

VIRGINIA TECH

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 9-3
CONFERENCE: 5-3 (3rd in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Old Dominion
LOSS vs. Clemson
WIN at Boston College
WIN vs. North Carolina
WIN vs. Duke
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS at Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Pitt
WIN at Virginia

College Football Week 4

Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 1 1 4 0
2 Oklahoma 5 3 1 +1
2 Ohio St. 3 4 2 0
4 Clemson 6 5 3 0
5 Florida St. 2 6 9 0
6 Penn St. 4 9 5 +1
7 Wisconsin 8 12 6 +5
8 Washington 7 13 7 +3
9 USC 10 7 12 -1
10 TCU 16 8 11 +5
11 Oklahoma St. 13 15 8 N/A
12 Stanford 14 10 13 -3
13 Georgia 19 2 17 +1
14 Michigan 11 11 18 -1
15 Auburn 12 16 16 N/A

WEEK 3 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 4-6 .400 0-1 .000
Overall 21-12 .636 2-4 .333

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#16 TCU at #6 OKLAHOMA ST.
Sat., Sep. 23, 12:30 PM, ESPN

FOUR-STAR GAME

#17 Mississippi St. at #11 GEORGIA
Sat., Sep. 23, 4:00 PM, ESPN

THREE-STAR GAMES

UCLA at STANFORD
Sat., Sep. 23, 7:30 PM, ESPN

Duke at NORTH CAROLINA*
Sat., Sep. 23, 12:30 PM, ESPNU

#20 FLORIDA at Kentucky
Sat., Sep. 23, 4:30 PM, SECN

Arkansas vs. TEXAS A&M (in Arlington)
Sat., Sep. 23, 9:00 AM, ESPN

#23 UTAH at Arizona
Fri., Sep. 22, 7:30 PM, FS1

NOTRE DAME at Michigan St.
Sat., Sep. 23, 5:00 PM, FOX

Texas Tech at HOUSTON
Sat., Sep. 23, 9:00 AM, ESPN2

Toledo at #14 MIAMI
Sat., Sep. 23, 12:30 PM, FSN/WatchESPN

WAKE FOREST at Appalachian St.
Sat., Sep. 23, 12:30 PM, ESPN3

Pitt at GEORGIA TECH
Sat., Sep. 23, 9:20 AM, ACCN/CW

NC State at #12 FLORIDA ST.
Sat., Sep. 23, 9:00 AM, ABC

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Temple at #21 South Florida
4:30 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY

Virginia at Boise St.
5:00 PM, ESPN2

#23 Utah at Arizona
7:30 PM, FS1

SATURDAY MORNING

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington)
9:00 AM, ESPN

Texas Tech at Houston
9:00 AM, ESPN2

Pitt at Georgia Tech
9:20 AM, ACCN/CW

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma St.
12:30 PM, ESPN

Duke at North Carolina 
12:30 PM, ESPNU

Toledo at #14 Miami
12:30 PM, FSN/WatchESPN

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#17 Mississippi St. at #11 Georgia
4:00 PM, ESPN

#20 Florida at Kentucky
4:30 PM, SECN

Notre Dame at Michigan St.
5:00 PM, FOX

SATURDAY NIGHT

UCLA at Stanford
7:30 PM, ESPN

#24 Oregon at Arizona St.
7:00 PM, PAC12

#7 Washington at Colorado
7:00 PM, FS1

Hawai’i at Wyoming
7:15 PM, ESPN2

SUNDAY

East Carolina at UConn
9:00 AM, ESPNU

College Football Week 3

Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 1 1 3 0
2 Ohio St. 4 2 1 0
3 Oklahoma 6 3 2 +1
4 Clemson 5 4 4 -1
5 Florida St. 3 5 6 0
6 LSU 2 8 10 0
7 Penn St. 8 10 5 +2
8 USC 7 7 12 0
9 Stanford 11 11 9 -2
10 Auburn 10 15 8 0
11 Washington 12 12 7 +1
12 Wisconsin 12 13 11 -1
13 Michigan 9 12 17 0
14 Georgia 20 6 15 0
15 TCU 19 11 14 N/A

WEEK 2 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 11-3 .786 2-1 .667
Overall 17-6 .739 2-3 .400

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#3 CLEMSON at #14 Louisville
Sat., Sep. 16, 5:00 PM, ABC

FOUR-STAR GAME

#23 Tennessee at #24 FLORIDA
Sat., Sep. 16, 12:30 PM, CBS

THREE-STAR GAMES

#18 K-STATE at Vanderbilt
Sat., Sep. 16, 4:30 PM, ESPNU

Texas at #4 USC
Sat., Sep. 16, 5:30 PM, FOX

#12 LSU at Mississippi St.
Sat., Sep. 16, 4:00 PM, ESPN

#25 UCLA at Memphis
Sat., Sep. 16, 9:00 AM, ABC

Kentucky at SOUTH CAROLINA
Sat., Sep. 16, 4:30 PM, SECN

#9 OKLAHOMA ST. at Pitt
Sat., Sep. 16, 9:00 AM, ESPN

BAYLOR* at Duke
Sat., Sep. 16, 9:30 AM, FSN

OLE MISS at Cal
Sat., Sep. 16, 7:30 PM, ESPN

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

New Mexico at Boise St.
5:00 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY

Illinois at #22 South Florida
4:00 PM, ESPN

UMass at Temple
4:00 PM, ESPNU

Arizona at UTEP
7:15 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY MORNING

#25 UCLA at Memphis
9:00 AM, ABC

#9 Oklahoma St. at Pitt
9:00 AM, ESPN

Baylor at Duke
9:30 AM, FSN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#23 Tennessee at #24 Florida
12:30 PM, CBS

#10 Wisconsin at BYU 
12:30 PM, ABC

SMU at #20 TCU
12:30 PM, ESPNU

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Arizona St. at Texas Tech
5:00 PM, FSN

#3 Clemson at #14 Louisville
5:00 PM, ABC

#18 K-State at Vanderbilt
4:30 PM, ESPNU

Texas at #4 USC
5:30 PM, FOX

SATURDAY NIGHT

Ole Miss at Cal
7:30 PM, ESPN

#19 Stanford at San Diego St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN

Fresno St. at #6 Washington
6:30 PM, PAC12

San José St. at Utah
7:00 PM, ESPN2

What I’m watching – College Football Week 2

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 5-3 .625 0-2 .000
Overall 6-3 .667 0-2 .000

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#13 Auburn at #3 CLEMSON
Sat., Sep. 9, 4:00 PM, ESPN

FIVE-STAR GAME

#5 Oklahoma at #2 OHIO ST.
Sat., Sep. 9, 4:30 PM, ABC

FOUR-STAR GAMES

#14 Stanford at #6 USC
Sat., Sep. 9, 5:30 PM, FOX

#15 Georgia at #24 NOTRE DAME**
Sat., Sep. 9, 4:30 PM, NBC

THREE-STAR GAMES

#23 TCU at Arkansas
Sat., Sep. 9, 12:30 PM, CBS

HOUSTON at Arizona
Sat., Sep. 9, 7:30 PM, ESPNU

Northwestern at DUKE*
Sat., Sep. 9, 9:00 AM, ESPNU

SOUTH CAROLINA* at Missouri
Sat., Sep. 9, 4:00 PM, ESPN2

UTAH at BYU
Sat., Sep. 9, 7:15 PM, ESPN2

#17 LOUISVILLE at North Carolina
Sat., Sep. 9, 9:00 AM, ESPN

San Diego St. at ARIZONA ST.
Sat., Sep. 9, 8:00 PM, PAC12

Boise St. at #20 WASHINGTON ST.
Sat., Sep. 9, 7:30 PM, ESPN

IOWA at Iowa St.
Sat., Sep. 9, 9:00 AM, ESPN2

Nebraska at OREGON
Sat., Sep. 9, 1:30 PM, FOX

*Upset pick
**Upset pick – Vegas favorite despite lower ranking


What I’m going to watch…

FRIDAY

Ohio at Purdue
5:00 PM, FS1

#11 Oklahoma St. at South Alabama
5:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

Northwestern at Duke
9:00 AM, ESPNU

#17 Louisville at North Carolina
9:00 AM, ESPN

Iowa at Iowa St.
9:00 AM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#23 TCU at Arkansas
12:30 PM, CBS

Nebraska at Oregon 
1:30 PM, FOX

Pitt at #4 Penn St.
12:30 PM, ABC

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#13 Auburn at #3 Clemson
4:00 PM, ESPN

#5 Oklahoma at #2 Ohio St.
4:30 PM, ABC

#14 Stanford at #6 USC
5:30 PM, FOX

SATURDAY NIGHT

Houston at Arizona
7:30 PM, ESPNU

Utah at BYU
7:15 PM, ESPN2

San Diego St. at Arizona St.
8:00 PM, PAC12

College Football Advanced Stats Composite Top 15 – Week 2

Using my favorite college football analytics rankings, here is a composite of the top 15 after week 1.

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI
1 Alabama 1 1 2
2 Ohio St. 2 2 1
3 Clemson 3 4 4
4 Oklahoma 6 5 3
5 Florida St. 5 3 9
6 LSU 4 9 10
7 Stanford 11 8 5
8 USC 7 7 12
9 Penn St. 10 10 6
10 Auburn 8 13 8
11 Wisconsin 12 12 7
12 Washington 13 11 11
13 Michigan 9 14 15
14 Georgia 21 6 13
15 Notre Dame 17 17 14