Monthly Archives: November 2017

College Football Playoff Prediction Flowchart

Using FiveThirtyEight’s playoff prediction tool, I made a flowchart with all of the possible outcomes of the Power 5 conference championship games listing the four teams given the highest probability of going to the Playoff. (The Pac-12’s conference championship game was insignificant to the results and therefore excluded.)

You’ll want to click on it so you can zoom in. (Sorry about the watermark; I’m cheap.)

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Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 13

Advanced Stats Weighted Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 2 5 1
2 Georgia 5 3 5 +3
3 Auburn 7 2 4
4 Clemson 9 1 3
5 Ohio St. 1 11 2 -3
6 Wisconsin 4 7 9 +3
7 Oklahoma 10 4 8
8 Penn St. 8 9 6 -2
9 Washington 6 13 7 -1
10 Miami 11 6 12
11 Notre Dame 13 8 10
12 TCU 12 10 11 +1
13 UCF 3 12 19 +1
14 Oklahoma St. 14 14 13 -2
15 USC 17 17 17

WEEK 12 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-4 .636 1-0 1.000
Overall 87-59 .596 12-17 .414

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#1 ALABAMA at #6 Auburn
Sat., Nov. 25, 1:30/3:30 PM, CBS

FOUR-STAR GAMES

#8 NOTRE DAME at #21 Stanford
Sat., Nov. 25, 6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

THREE-STAR GAMES

Arizona at ARIZONA ST.*
Sat., Nov. 25, 2:30/4:30 PM, PAC12

#13 Washington St. at #17 WASHINGTON*
Sat., Nov. 25, 6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

IOWA ST.* at Kansas St.
Sat., Nov. 25, 1:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

Navy at HOUSTON
Fri., Nov. 24, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

#9 OHIO ST. at Michigan
Sat., Nov. 25, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

Indiana at PURDUE
Sat., Nov. 25, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

Texas Tech at TEXAS
Fri., Nov. 24, 6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

South Florida at #15 UCF
Fri., Nov. 24, 1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

Texas A&M at #18 LSU
Sat., Nov. 25, 5:30/7:30 PM, SECN

Duke at WAKE FOREST
Sat., Nov. 25, 10:30 AM/12:30 PM, FSN/ESPN3

#25 VIRGINIA TECH at Virginia
Fri., Nov. 24, 6:00/8:00 PM, ESPN

FLORIDA ST. at Florida
Sat., Nov. 25, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

#23 Boise St. at FRESNO ST.*
Sat., Nov. 25, 1:30/3:30 PM, CBSSN

LOUISVILLE at Kentucky
Sat., Nov. 25, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, SECN

Boston College at SYRACUSE*
Sat., Nov. 25, 10:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at Central Michigan
Fri., Nov. 24, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, CBSSN

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY – HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Ole Miss at #14 Mississippi St.
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY MORNING

Navy at Houston
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, CBSSN

Ohio at Buffalo
11:00 AM/1:00 PM, ESPN3

FRIDAY MIDDAY

South Florida at #15 UCF
1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

Missouri at Arkansas
12:30/2:30 PM, CBS

Iowa at Nebraska
2:00/4:00 PM, FS1

FRIDAY PRIME TIME

Texas Tech at Texas
6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

#25 Virginia Tech at Virginia
6:00/8:00 PM, ESPN

Western Kentucky at Florida International
5:00/7:00 PM, BEIN

FRIDAY NIGHT

Cal at UCLA
8:30/10:30 PM, FS1

SATURDAY MORNING

#9 Ohio St. at Michigan
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

Indiana at Purdue
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

Duke at Wake Forest
10:30 AM/12:30 PM, FSN/ACCN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Arizona at Arizona St. 
2:30/4:30 PM, PAC12

#1 Alabama at #6 Auburn
1:30/3:30 PM, CBS

Iowa St. at Kansas St.
1:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

#23 Boise St. at Fresno St.
1:30/3:30 PM, CBSSN

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#8 Notre Dame at #21 Stanford
6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

#13 Washington St. at #17 Washington
6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

Texas A&M at #18 LSU
5:30/7:30 PM, SECN

SATURDAY NIGHT

Colorado at Utah
8:00/10:00 PM, FS1

Utah St. at Air Force
8:15/10:15 PM, ESPN2

BYU at Hawai’i
7:00/9:00 PM, CBSSN

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 12

BB&T Field, Winston-Salem, North Carolina

Advanced Stats Weighted Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 2 6 1
2 Ohio St. 1 8 2 +1
3 Auburn 6 3 5 +7
4 Clemson 11 1 4 +3
5 Georgia 7 5 7 -3
6 Penn St. 8 9 3 -1
7 Oklahoma 10 2 8 +2
8 Washington 4 14 6 -2
9 Wisconsin 3 11 10 +3
10 Miami 9 4 12 +3
11 Notre Dame 14 7 9 -7
12 Oklahoma St. 12 12 11 +2
13 TCU 13 10 13 -6
14 UCF 5 13 21 -3
15 USC 17 17 17

WEEK 11 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-6 .538 2-2 .500
Overall 80-55 .593 11-17 .393

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#19 NC State at WAKE FOREST*
Sat., Nov. 18, 5:30/7:30 PM, ESPNU

FOUR-STAR GAMES

#24 Michigan at #5 WISCONSIN
Sat., Nov. 18, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

Texas at WEST VIRGINIA
Sat., Nov. 18, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

THREE-STAR GAMES

ARIZONA at Oregon
Sat., Nov. 18, 5:00/7:00 PM, PAC12

#12 TCU at Texas Tech
Sat., Nov. 18, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FS1

Texas A&M at OLE MISS
Sat., Nov. 18, 5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

SMU at #21 MEMPHIS
Sat., Nov. 18, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPNEWS

Purdue at IOWA
Sat., Nov. 18, 1:30/3:30 PM, BTN

Minnesota at #23 NORTHWESTERN
Sat., Nov. 18, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, BTN

Syracuse at LOUISVILLE
Sat., Nov. 18, 1:30/3:30 PM, ESPNU

Marshall at UTSA
Sat., Nov. 18, 5:00/7:00 PM, Facebook

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Tulsa at South Florida
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPN

Buffalo at Ball St.
5:00/7:00 PM, CBSSN

FRIDAY

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky
6:00/8:00 PM, CBSSN

UNLV at New Mexico
7:30/9:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

#24 Michigan at #5 Wisconsin
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

Texas at West Virginia
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

#12 TCU at Texas Tech
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FS1

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Arizona St. at Oregon St.
1:00/3:00 PM, PAC12

Purdue at Iowa 
1:30/3:30 PM, BTN

Syracuse at Louisville
1:30/3:30 PM, ESPNU

Fresno St. at Wyoming
12:00/2:00 PM, Stadium

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#19 NC State at Wake Forest
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPNU

Arizona at Oregon
5:00/7:00 PM, PAC12

Texas A&M at Ole Miss
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

Marshall at UTSA
5:00/7:00 PM, Facebook

SATURDAY NIGHT

Utah at #18 Washington
8:30/10:30 PM, ESPN

Air Force at #25 Boise St.
8:15/10:15 PM, ESPN2

Nevada at San Diego St.
8:30/10:30 PM, CBSSN

Early Week #MACtion Viewing Guide – College Football Week 12

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

Times AZ/ET.

What I’m going to watch…

TUESDAY

Ohio at Akron
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

Central Michigan at Kent St.
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPNU

WEDNESDAY

Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH)
5:00/7:00 PM, CBSSN

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

Toledo at Bowling Green
6:00/8:00 PM, ESPNU

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 11

Toomer’s Corner, Auburn, Alabama

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 1 9 1 +2
2 Georgia 4 1 6
3 Ohio St. 2 8 2 -2
4 Notre Dame 7 2 4
5 Penn St. 10 5 3
6 Washington 3 11 5  +1
7 Clemson 12 3 7  -1
8 TCU 8 6 11 +1
9 Oklahoma 14 4 9 -1
10 Auburn 9 8 10 +2
11 UCF 5 7 19 +2
12 Wisconsin 6 16 10  -2
13 Miami 11 13 13 +1
14 Oklahoma St. 13 15 12 -3
15 USC 17 17 16  N/A

Dropped from rankings: Virginia Tech

WEEK 10 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 9-6 .600 0-2 .000
Overall 73-49 .598 9-15 .375

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#1 GEORGIA at #10 Auburn
Sat., Nov. 11, 1:30/3:30 PM, CBS

FOUR-STAR GAMES

#3 NOTRE DAME at #7 Miami
Sat., Nov. 11, 6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

#6 TCU* at #5 Oklahoma
Sat., Nov. 11, 6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

THREE-STAR GAMES

#15 OKLAHOMA ST. at #21 Iowa St.
Sat., Nov. 11, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC / ESPN2

WAKE FOREST* at Syracuse
Sat., Nov. 11, 1:00 PM/3:00 PM, FSN/ACCV

#9 WASHINGTON at Stanford
Fri., Nov. 10, 8:30/10:30 PM, FS1

#17 VIRGINIA TECH at Georgia Tech
Sat., Nov. 11, 10:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

#19 WASHINGTON ST. at Utah
Sat., Nov. 11, 3:30/5:30 PM, PAC12

#23 NC State at BOSTON COLLEGE*
Sat., Nov. 11, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2 / ABC

#2 ALABAMA at #16 Mississippi St.
Sat., Nov. 11, 5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

#20 Iowa at #8 WISCONSIN
Sat., Nov. 11, 1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

WEST VIRGINIA* at K-State
Sat., Nov. 11, 1:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

#12 Michigan St. at #13 OHIO ST.
Sat., Nov. 11, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

North Carolina at Pitt
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPN

Georgia Southern at Appalachian St.
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPNU

Ball St. at Northern Illinois
5:00/7:00 PM, CBSSN

FRIDAY

Temple at Cincinnati
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

#9 Washington at Stanford
8:30/10:30 PM, FS1

BYU at UNLV
8:30/10:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

#15 Oklahoma St. at #21 Iowa St.
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC / ESPN2

#17 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
10:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

#23 NC State at Boston College
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2 / ABC

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn
1:30/3:30 PM, CBS

Wake Forest at Syracuse 
1:00/3:00 PM, FSN/ACCV

#20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin
1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

EDIT: My heart says to watch Iowa vs. Wisconsin over Wake vs. Syracuse, but I’m just going to leave it the way the numbers called it.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

#19 Washington St. at Utah
3:30/5:30 PM, PAC12

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami
6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma
6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi St.
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY NIGHT

Arizona St. at UCLA
7:30/9:30 PM, PAC12

Boise St. at Colorado St.
8:30/10:30 PM, CBSSN

Wyoming at Air Force
8:15/10:15 PM, ESPNU

Early Week #MACtion Viewing Guide – College Football Week 11

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

What I’m going to watch…

TUESDAY

Akron at Miami (OH)
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPN2

Bowling Green at Buffalo
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPNU

WEDNESDAY

TOLEDO at Ohio
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
6:00/8:00 PM, ESPNU

I would normally list the third option of the evening here, but I can’t in good conscience recommend in any way that anyone watch Kent St. play football this season.

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 10

Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Ohio St. 1 4 2 +1
2 Georgia 3 1 5 +2
3 Alabama 2 13 1 -2
4 Notre Dame 9 3 4  +1
5 Penn St. 7 7 3 -2
6 Clemson 11 2 6
7 Washington 4 10 7
8 Oklahoma 13 6 8 +1
9 TCU 12 5 12 -1
10 Wisconsin 6 14 10 +1
11 Oklahoma St. 8 11 11  -1
12 Auburn 10 12 9
13 UCF 5 9 19 +1
14 Miami 14 15 16 -1
15 Virginia Tech 15 17 13  N/A

Dropped from rankings: Stanford

WEEK 9 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-8 .467 1-1 .500
Overall 64-43 .598 9-13 .409

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#5 OKLAHOMA at #11 Oklahoma St.
Sat., Nov. 4, 1:00/4:00 PM, FS1

FOUR-STAR GAMES

#13 Virginia Tech at #10 MIAMI
Sat., Nov. 4, 5:00/8:00 PM, ABC

#21 STANFORD at #25 Washington St.
Sat., Nov. 4, 12:30/3:30 PM, FOX

THREE-STAR GAMES

#15 IOWA ST. at West Virginia
Sat., Nov. 4, 12:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

K-State at TEXAS TECH
Sat., Nov. 4, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FS1

#22 Arizona at #17 USC
Sat., Nov. 4, 7:45/10:45 PM, ESPN

Texas at #8 TCU
Sat., Nov. 4, 4:15/7:15 PM, ESPN

#4 CLEMSON #20 NC State
Sat., Nov. 4, 12:30/3:30 PM, ABC

SYRACUSE* at Florida St.
Sat., Nov. 4, 9:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

Colorado at ARIZONA ST.
Sat., Nov. 4, 6:00/9:00 PM, PAC12

#7 PENN ST. at #24 Michigan St.
Sat., Nov. 4, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

Minnesota at MICHIGAN
Sat., Nov. 4, 4:30/7:30 PM, FOX

UCLA* at Utah
Fri., Nov. 3, 6:30/9:30 PM, FS1

#19 LSU at #2 ALABAMA
Sat., Nov. 4, 5:00/8:00 PM, CBS

Wake Forest at #3 NOTRE DAME
Sat., Nov. 4, 12:30/3:30 PM, NBC

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Northern Illinois at Toledo
3:00/6:00 PM, ESPNU

Navy at Temple
5:00/8:00 PM, ESPN

Idaho at Troy
6:15/9:15 PM, ESPNU

FRIDAY

Marshall at Florida Atlantic
3:00/6:00 PM, CBSSN

UCLA at Utah
6:30/9:30 PM, FS1

#23 Memphis at Tulsa
5:00/8:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

K-State at Texas Tech
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FS1

Syracuse at Florida St.
9:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

#7 Penn St. at #24 Michigan St.
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#5 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma St.
1:00/4:00 PM, FOX

#21 Stanford at #25 Washington St. 
12:30/3:30 PM, FOX

#15 Iowa St. at West Virginia
12:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Colorado at Arizona St.
6:00/9:00 PM, PAC12

#13 Virginia Tech at #10 Miami
5:00/8:00 PM, ABC

Texas at #8 TCU
4:15/7:15 PM, ESPN

Minnesota at Michigan
4:30/7:30 PM, FOX

SATURDAY NIGHT

#22 Arizona at #17 USC
7:45/10:45 PM, ESPN

Oregon at #12 Washington
7:00/10:00 PM, FS1

BYU at Fresno St.
7:45/10:45 PM, ESPN2