Projecting the ACC: Team-by-Team Schedule Predictions

TL;DR – Clemson wins the conference and goes to the Playoff. Florida St. enjoys another trip to the Orange Bowl.

The predictions were based on the same advanced statistics ratings I use to rate each week’s games. Home teams were given a slight increase in ratings for home-field advantage.

Projected Final Standings


Atlantic

Team Overall Conference
Clemson 12-0 8-0
Florida St. 9-2 7-1
Louisville 10-2 6-2
NC State 6-6 4-4
Wake Forest 6-6 2-6
Syracuse 4-8 2-6
Boston College 3-9 0-8

Coastal

Team Overall Conference
Miami 9-2 7-1
Georgia Tech 7-4 6-2
Virginia Tech 9-3 5-3
North Carolina 5-7 3-5
Duke 6-6 2-6
Pitt 3-9 2-6
Virginia 2-10 0-8

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION

Clemson OVER Miami
 

ACC ATLANTIC


BOSTON COLLEGE

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 3-9
CONFERENCE: 0-8 (7th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Clemson
WIN vs. Central Michigan
LOSS vs. Virginia Tech
LOSS at Louisville
LOSS at Virginia
LOSS vs. Florida St.
LOSS vs. NC State
WIN vs. UConn (Fenway Park)
LOSS at Syracuse

CLEMSON

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 13-0
CONFERENCE: 9-0 (1st in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Boston College
WIN at Virginia Tech
WIN vs. Wake Forest
WIN at Syracuse
WIN vs. Georgia Tech
WIN at NC State
WIN vs. Florida St.
WIN vs. The Citadel
WIN at South Carolina
WIN vs. Miami (Conference Championship Game)

FLORIDA ST.

CURRENT: 0-1

OVERALL: 9-2
CONFERENCE: 7-1 (2nd in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. NC State
WIN vs. Wake Forest
WIN at Miami (FL)
WIN at Duke
WIN vs. Louisville
WIN at Boston College
WIN vs. Syracuse
LOSS at Clemson
WIN vs. Delaware St.
WIN at Florida

LOUISVILLE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 10-2
CONFERENCE: 6-2 (3rd in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Kent St.
WIN vs. Murray St.
WIN at NC State
WIN vs. Boston College
LOSS at Florida St.
WIN at Wake Forest
WIN vs. Virginia
WIN vs. Syracuse
WIN at Kentucky

NC STATE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 4-4 (4th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Florida St.
WIN vs. Syracuse
LOSS vs. Louisville
WIN at Pitt
LOSS at Notre Dame
LOSS vs. Clemson
WIN at Boston College
LOSS at Wake Forest
WIN vs. North Carolina

SYRACUSE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 4-8
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (6th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at LSU
LOSS at NC State
WIN vs. Pitt
LOSS vs. Clemson
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS at Florida St.
LOSS vs. Wake Forest
LOSS at Louisville
WIN vs. Boston College

WAKE FOREST

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (5th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN at Appalachian St.
LOSS vs. Florida St.
LOSS at Clemson
LOSS at Georgia Tech
LOSS vs. Louisville
LOSS at Notre Dame
WIN at Syracuse
LOSS vs. NC State
WIN vs. Duke

 

ACC COASTAL


DUKE

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (5th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at North Carolina
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)
WIN at Virginia
LOSS vs. Florida St.
WIN vs. Pitt
LOSS at Virginia Tech
WIN at Army
LOSS vs. Georgia Tech
LOSS at Wake Forest

GEORGIA TECH

CURRENT: 1-1

OVERALL: 7-4
CONFERENCE: 6-2 (2nd in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Pitt
WIN vs. North Carolina
LOSS at Miami (FL)
WIN vs. Wake Forest
LOSS at Clemson
WIN at Virginia
WIN vs. Virginia Tech
WIN at Duke
LOSS vs. Georgia

MIAMI

CURRENT: 1-0

OVERALL: 9-3
CONFERENCE: 7-2 (1st in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Toledo
WIN at Duke
LOSS at Florida St.
WIN vs. Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Syracuse
WIN at North Carolina
WIN vs. Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Notre Dame
WIN vs. Virginia
WIN at Pitt
LOSS vs. Clemson (Conference Championship)

NORTH CAROLINA

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 5-7
CONFERENCE: 3-5 (4th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Duke
LOSS at Georgia Tech
LOSS vs. Notre Dame
WIN vs. Virginia
LOSS at Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)
WIN at Pitt
WIN vs. Western Carolina
LOSS at NC State

PITT

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 3-9
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (6th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Rice
LOSS at Syracuse
LOSS vs. NC State
LOSS at Duke
WIN vs. Virginia
LOSS vs. North Carolina
LOSS at Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)

VIRGINIA

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 2-10
CONFERENCE: 0-8 (7th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Boise St.
LOSS vs. Duke
LOSS at North Carolina
LOSS vs. Boston College
LOSS at Pitt
LOSS vs. Georgia Tech
LOSS at Louisville
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS vs. Virginia Tech

VIRGINIA TECH

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 9-3
CONFERENCE: 5-3 (3rd in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Old Dominion
LOSS vs. Clemson
WIN at Boston College
WIN vs. North Carolina
WIN vs. Duke
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS at Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Pitt
WIN at Virginia

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Pac-12 Team-by-Team Schedule Predictions

TL;DR – Stanford wins the conference and goes to the Playoff.

The predictions were based on the same advanced statistics ratings I use to rate each week’s games. I did give a slight increase in ratings to the home team of each game.

Bowl Predictions

Utah: ???*
Washington St.: Las Vegas
ASU: Cactus
UCLA: San Francisco
USC: Alamo
Washington: Holiday
Oregon: Sun
Stanford: Playoff (Rose/Sugar)

*Depends on other conferences

Projected Final Standings


North

Team Overall Conference
Stanford 11-1 8-1
Washington 11-1 8-1
Oregon 9-3 6-3
Washington St. 8-4 5-4
Cal 2-10 1-8
Oregon St. 3-9 1-8

South

Team Overall Conference
USC 12-0 9-0
UCLA 8-4 6-3
Utah 6-6 3-6
Arizona St. 6-6 3-6
Colorado 4-8 2-7
Baja 4-8 2-7

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION

Stanford OVER USC

PAC-12 NORTH


CAL

OVERALL: 2-10
CONFERENCE: 1-8 (5th in North)
BOWL: N/A

LOSS at North Carolina
WIN vs. Weber St.
LOSS vs. Ole Miss
LOSS vs. USC
LOSS at Oregon
LOSS at Washington
LOSS vs. Washington St.
LOSS vs. Arizona
LOSS at Colorado
WIN vs. Oregon State
LOSS at Stanford
LOSS at UCLA

OREGON

OVERALL: 9-3
CONFERENCE: 6-3 (3rd in North)
BOWL: Sun

WIN vs. Southern Utah
WIN vs. Nebraska
WIN at Wyoming
WIN at Arizona St.
WIN vs. Cal
WIN vs. Washington St.
LOSS at Stanford
LOSS at UCLA
WIN vs. Utah
LOSS at Washington
WIN vs. Arizona
WIN vs. Oregon St.

OREGON ST.

OVERALL: 3-9
CONFERENCE: 1-8 (6th in North)
BOWL: N/A

LOSS at Colorado St.
WIN vs. Portland St.
WIN vs. Minnesota
LOSS at Washington St.
LOSS vs. Washington
LOSS at USC
WIN vs. Colorado
LOSS vs. Stanford
LOSS at Cal
LOSS at Arizona
LOSS vs. Arizona St.
LOSS at Oregon

STANFORD

OVERALL: 11-1
CONFERENCE: 8-1 (1st in North)
BOWL: Rose/Sugar (Playoff)

WIN vs. Rice
LOSS at USC
WIN at San Diego St.
WIN vs. UCLA
WIN vs. Arizona St.
WIN at Utah
WIN vs. Oregon
WIN at Oregon St.
WIN at Washington St.
WIN vs. Washington
WIN vs. Cal
WIN vs. Notre Dame

WASHINGTON

OVERALL: 11-1
CONFERENCE: 8-1 (2nd in North)
BOWL: Holiday

WIN at Rutgers
WIN vs. Montana
WIN vs. Fresno St.
WIN at Colorado
WIN at Oregon St.
WIN vs. Cal
WIN at Arizona St.
WIN vs. UCLA
WIN vs. Oregon
LOSS at Stanford
WIN vs. Utah
WIN vs. Washington St.

WASHINGTON ST.

OVERALL: 8-4
CONFERENCE: 5-4 (4th in North)
BOWL: Las Vegas

WIN vs. Montana St.
WIN vs. Boise St.
WIN vs. Oregon St.
WIN vs. Nevada
LOSS vs. USC
LOSS at Oregon
WIN at Cal
WIN vs. Colorado
WIN at Arizona
LOSS vs. Stanford
WIN at Utah
LOSS at Washington

PAC-12 SOUTH


TUCSON

OVERALL: 4-8
CONFERENCE: 2-7 (6th in South)
BOWL: N/A

WIN vs. Northern Arizona
LOSS vs. Houston
WIN at UTEP
LOSS vs. Utah
LOSS at Colorado
LOSS vs. UCLA
WIN at California
LOSS vs. Washington St.
LOSS at USC
WIN vs. Oregon St.
LOSS at Oregon
LOSS at Arizona St.

ARIZONA ST.

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 3-6 (4th in South)
BOWL: Cactus

WIN vs. New Mexico St.
WIN vs. San Diego St.
WIN at Texas Tech
LOSS vs. Oregon
LOSS at Stanford
LOSS vs. Washington
LOSS at Utah
LOSS vs. USC
WIN vs. Colorado
LOSS at UCLA
WIN at Oregon St.
WIN vs. Arizona

COLORADO

OVERALL: 4-8
CONFERENCE: 2-7 (5th in South)
BOWL: N/A

LOSS vs. Colorado St.
WIN vs. Texas St.
WIN vs. Northern Colorado
LOSS vs. Washington
LOSS at UCLA
WIN vs. Arizona
LOSS at Oregon St.
LOSS at Washington St.
WIN vs. Cal
LOSS at Arizona St.
LOSS vs. USC
LOSS at Utah

UCLA

OVERALL: 8-4
CONFERENCE: 6-3 (2nd in South)
BOWL: San Francisco

LOSS vs. Texas A&M
WIN vs. Hawaii
WIN at Memphis
LOSS at Stanford
WIN vs. Colorado
WIN at Arizona
WIN vs. Oregon
LOSS at Washington
WIN at Utah
WIN vs. Arizona St.
LOSS at USC
WIN vs. Cal

USC

OVERALL: 12-0
CONFERENCE: 9-0 (1st in South)
BOWL: Alamo

WIN vs. Western Michigan
WIN vs. Stanford
WIN vs. Texas
WIN at Cal
WIN at Washington St.
WIN vs. Oregon St.
WIN vs. Utah
WIN at Notre Dame
WIN at Arizona St.
WIN vs. Arizona
WIN at Colorado
WIN vs. UCLA
WIN vs. Stanford

Utah

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 3-6 (3rd in South)
BOWL: ???

WIN vs. North Dakota
WIN at BYU
WIN vs. San Jose St.
WIN at Arizona
LOSS vs. Stanford
LOSS at USC
WIN vs. Arizona St.
LOSS at Oregon
LOSS vs. UCLA
LOSS vs. Washington St.
LOSS at Washington
WIN vs. Colorado

Big 12 Expansion – Let History, Geography, and Mathematics Be Your Guide

Since the Big 12 is talking about expanding, I’ve taken a look at the teams who historically, geographically, and mathematically would be good fits in the conference.

TL;DR – Add Houston and SMU. If you want 14 teams, add Memphis and Tulsa too.

Here’s who they shouldn’t add: any team closer to the Atlantic Ocean than to the Mississippi River (Gulf of Mexico excluded), any team that’s closer to the Pacific Ocean than the Mississippi River, or anyone from Ohio.

HISTORY

The Big 12 is basically a combination of the old Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association, which later split to eventually become the Big 8 and Missouri Valley Conference, and the Southwest Conference.

Missouri Valley (1907-1927)
Kansas
Missouri
Nebraska
Iowa St.
Kansas St.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.

The predecessor to the Big 8 began with Kansas, Mizzou, and Nebraska in 1907. Iowa St. joined the following year and Kansas St. in 1913. The Oklahoma schools joined later in the 1920s.

When the MVIAA broke apart, Oklahoma St. stayed in what became the MVC. Joining them later were two schools that still currently have D-IA football:

Missouri Valley Conference (1935-1956)
Oklahoma St.
Tulsa
Houston

Southwest (1915-1996)
Arkansas
Baylor
Rice
Texas
Texas A&M
SMU
TCU

Texas Tech was a member of the Border Conference and West Virginia should be in a conference with Marshall.

So our first tier of candidates are the teams with historical ties the current Big 12 teams.

  1. Missouri – recently left for the SEC, isn’t coming back
  2. Nebraska – recently left for the Big Ten, isn’t coming back
  3. Arkansas – Has been a member of the SEC for almost a quarter century, isn’t coming back.
  4. Rice – current member of C-USA, potential candidate
  5. Texas A&M – recently left for the SEC, isn’t coming back
  6. SMU – current member of American conference, potential candidate
  7. Colorado was an addition to the original seven schools to create the Big 8 – recently left for the Pac-12, isn’t coming back.
  8. Tulsa – current member of American conference, potential candidate
  9. Houston – current member of American conference, potential candidate

GEOGRAPHY

The second tier of candidates will be those who geographically “make sense.” Excluding West Virginia and Texas Tech as geographical outliers, the biggest traveler is Iowa St., who travels a little over 600 miles on average to play other Big 12 schools. Using that number as a guide, the following schools reside in cities approximately 600 miles away or less than at least three current Big 12 members (excluding TTU and WVU). Excluded from the list are those that have already been taken out of consideration above and members of other Power 5 conferences. They are ranked by the number of Big 12 members that are 600 miles away or less.

Within 600 Miles of Eight Schools
Tulsa

Seven Schools
North Texas and SMU (all but Iowa St.)
Arkansas St. (all but Texas)

Six Schools
Memphis (all but Texas and Iowa St.)

Five Schools
Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette, Houston, Rice, UTSA, and Texas St. (all but North schools)

Four Schools
Air Force (OU, OK St., K-State, and KU)

Three Schools
Northern Illinois (North schools)
Tulane (UT, BU, and TCU)

MATHEMATICS

Next, I’d assume the Big 12 would want to add as high-quality of a team as possible. Here are the records of the remaining candidates (in no particular order) over the last five years along with their S&P+ five-year average and the three-year trend of their S&P+ numbers.

School 5-Yr. Record S&P+ 5-Yr. Rk. 3-Yr. Trend
Rice 34-30 (.531) #99 (-7.2) down (m = -9.1)
SMU 23-39 (.371) #95 (-5.9) down (-3.4)
Tulsa 30-34 (.469) #76 (-2.0) stable (-1.85)
North Texas 23-38 (.377) #105 (-9.8) down (-15.5)
Houston 47-20 (.701) #50 (2.8) stable (0.3)
Texas St. 20-28 (.417) #114 (-11.6) stable (0.25)
UTSA 22-26 (.458) #109 (-10.2) down (-8.75)
Arkansas St. 44-21 (.677) #68 (0.2) stable (0.6)
Memphis 28-34 (.452) #88 (-5.0) up (4.4)
Louisiana Tech 39-25 (.609) #65 (0.4) up (14.5)
Louisiana-Monroe 24-38 (.387) #110 (-10.3) down (-4.45)
Louisiana-Lafayette 40-24 (.625) #94 (-5.8) down (-3)
Northern Illinois 54-16 (.771) #56 (1.5) stable (0.1)
Tulane 17-45 (.274) #118 (-12.6) down (-9.0)
Air Force 33-32 (.508) #92 (-5.2) up (10.45)

Finally, much like the Big 10 added Rutgers and Maryland for basically no other reason than the markets in which they play, I’d include size of the metro area and attendance as a factor in the decision.

School Metro Pop. Avg. 2015 Attendance
Rice Houston, TX (6.3 million) 19,300
SMU Dallas, TX (7.1 million) 21,000
Tulsa Tulsa, OK (1 million) 19,600
North Texas Dallas, TX (7.1 million) 13,600
Houston Houston, TX (6.3 million) 34,000
Texas St. Austin, TX (1.7 million) 18,200
UTSA San Antonio, TX (2.1 million) 23,000
Arkansas St. Jonesboro-Paragould, AR (0.17 million) 23,000
Memphis Memphis, TN (1.3 million) 39,300
Louisiana Tech Ruston, LA (0.06 million) 21,000
Lousisiana-Monroe Monroe, LA (0.17 million) 13,200
Lousisiana-Lafayatte Lafayette, LA (0.48 million) 21,600
Northern Illinois DeKalb, IL (0.11 million) 13,900
Tulane New Orleans, LA (1.2 million) 22,900
Air Force Colorado Springs, CO (0.69 million) 26,000

Big 12 average attendance: 56,800

After all that, I ranked and gave all of the above information a percent value. I weighted the historical information at 10%, geography at 15% and team quality/market* at 75%. Here are the results.

Team History Geography Math Weighted Total
Houston 50% 40% 84% 74%
SMU 100% 80% 43% 54%
Memphis 0% 60% 51% 47%
Tulsa 50% 100% 35% 46%
Louisiana Tech 0% 40% 50% 43%
Rice 100% 40% 36% 43%
Arkansas St. 0% 80% 41% 43%
Air Force 0% 20% 45% 37%
North Texas 0% 80% 24% 30%
UL-Lafayette 0% 40% 31% 29%
Northern Illinois 0% 0% 37% 28%
Texas St. 0% 40% 29% 27%
UTSA 0% 40% 28% 27%
ULM 0% 40% 14% 17%
Tulane 0% 0% 18% 13%

*Since the Big 12 already has a share of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, I halved UNT’s and SMU’s population numbers. Also, since Houston finished first, I halved Rice’s population number since they would be a second addition to the Houston area.

There you have it. If the Big 12 expands by two teams, those spots should go to Houston and SMU. Both are fits historically and geographically. The addition of the Houston area would have to be a good thing in the eyes of the Big 12. Houston is an up-an-coming program who has done well nationally despite being in a Group of Five conference. SMU would bring in the eastern half of DFW and, hopefully, being part of the Big 12 would improve recruiting and a cross-town rivalry could develop with TCU.

If the Big 12 were to expand to 14 teams (a proposition I am in support of since they play nine conference games), they should also add Memphis and Tulsa. Both fit well geographically and while Memphis doesn’t have any direct historical ties to the Big 12, they were members of the MVC with Tulsa for a short time. Memphis and Tulsa are both relatively large markets and would give the Big 12 a corner of the South. Memphis is another team on the rise and would likely be an upper-half team in the expanded Big 12.

Here’s what my 12- and 14-team conference divisions would look like.

12-Teams 14-Teams
North
Iowa St. Iowa St.
K-State K-State
Kansas Kansas
West Virginia West Virginia
Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St.
Oklahoma Oklahoma
Tulsa
South
TCU TCU
SMU SMU
Baylor Baylor
Texas Tech Texas Tech
Texas Texas
Houston Houston
Memphis

What would have been a likely conference championship game in 2015 with these divisions? TCU vs. Oklahoma. I think I’d have been OK with that.

Arizona State Football Schedule Ranked Using Advanced Stats

Using Brian Fremeau‘s, Bill Connelly‘s, and ESPN‘s advanced stats rating systems, I have ranked ASU’s 2015 games from worst to best in terms of the projected quality of the opponent and the closeness of the matchup. In other words, the games are ranked by projecting which ones are going to be the most exciting to watch. ASU’s rating is added to the opponent’s rating to get an idea of the overall quality of the two teams. Then, the ratings are subtracted from each other to show how well the two teams match up.

This is not a ranking of ASU’s opponents. This is a ranking of game quality using opponent strength with how well ASU matches up with each team. A good team that ASU matches up well with will get a high ranking. A good team that outmatches ASU significantly will get a lower ranking, and vice versa.

The advanced stats ratings and nation-wide rankings are given for each team. Also, rating sums and differences (ASU’s rating plus/minus the opponent’s) are ranked 1-12 based on where they fall in ASU’s schedule.

Here are ASU’s projected advanced stat ratings.

FEI (Fremeau) FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ (Connelly) S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI (ESPN) FPI Nat’l Rk
.170 #14 12.7 #23 13.4 #22

12. Cal Poly

Duh.

11. New Mexico

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.143 #110 -10.1 #98 -10.8 #110

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.027 #11
S&P+ 2.6 #11
FPI 2.6 #11

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.313 #11
S&P+ 22.8 #11
FPI 24.2 #11

10. Colorado

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.085 #94 -2.5 #69 0.5 #66

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.085 #10
S&P+ 10.2 #10
FPI 13.9 #10

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.255 #10
S&P+ 15.2 #10
FPI 12.9 #10

9. Washington State – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.047 #79 -1.2 #64 2.5 #55

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.123 #9
S&P+ 11.5 #9
FPI 15.9 #9

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.217 #9
S&P+ 13.9 #9
FPI 10.9 #9

8. Washington – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.025 #53 0.9 #56 3.7 #49

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.195 #7
S&P+ 13.6 #8
FPI 17.1 #8

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.145 #7
S&P+ 11.8 #8
FPI 9.7 #8

7. Cal – 2-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
-0.02 #71 3.6 #50 11.3 #32

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.150 #8
S&P+ 16.3 #7
FPI 24.7 #6

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.190 #8
S&P+ 9.1 #7
FPI 2.1 #2

6. Utah – 3-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.114 #27 6.5 #41 9.1 #41

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.284 #5
S&P+ 19.2 #6
FPI 22.5 #7

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.056 #4
S&P+ 6.2 #4
FPI 4.3 #4

5. Tucson – 3-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.095 #31 8.3 #36 11.8 #29

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.265 #6
S&P+ 21.0 #5
FPI 25.2 #5

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.075 #5
S&P+ 4.4 #3
FPI 1.6 #1

4. Oregon – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
#3 20.9 #4 20.8 #8 #3

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI .416 #1
S&P+ 33.6 #1
FPI 34.2 #2

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.076 #6
S&P+ 8.2 #6
FPI 7.4 #6

3. Texas A&M – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.119 #26 14.1 #21 22.5 #6

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI .289 #4
S&P+ 26.8 #4
FPI 35.9 #1

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.051 #3
S&P+ 1.4 #1
FPI 9.1 #7

2. UCLA – 4-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.203 #6 19.6 #6 20 #12

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.373 #2
S&P+ 32.3 #2
FPI 33.4 #4

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.033 #2
S&P+ 6.9 #5
FPI 6.6 #4

1. USC – 5-Star Game

FEI FEI Nat’l Rk S&P+ S&P+ Nat’l Rk FPI FPI Nat’l Rk
0.166 #15 16.5 #12 20.5 #9

Game Data

Sum – Overall Quality of the Teams

System Rating Sum Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.336 #3
S&P+ 29.2 #3
FPI 33.9 #3

Difference – Closeness of the Matchup

System Rating Difference Rank in Sched.
FEI 0.004 #1
S&P+ 3.8 #2
FPI 7.1 #5

A Conference Championship Game Wouldn’t Have Helped the Big 12

Soon after the playoff committee announced the four teams to play in the inaugural College Football Playoff, the Big 12 said that they felt misled about and penalized for not having a conference championship game.

I contend that it didn’t matter.

Let’s say the Big 12 actually had 12 teams and played a conference championship game. What would have happened?

Depending on who the other two teams were, Baylor would have won the Big 12 South (via tiebreaker over TCU) and K-State would have won the North.

Historically, Colorado, Nebraska and Mizzou are the missing teams from the North, while Texas A&M is missing from the South. This year, the South would have likely played out the same way as A&M wasn’t a huge contender. Missouri definitely could have taken the North title from K-State, however.

So in all likelihood, your championship game would have been Baylor vs. K-State/Mizzou. The first of those options actually happened and it still didn’t help the Big 12 enough to get in. I don’t see how Baylor beating Missouri in the same fashion would have made much of a difference either.

The lack of a championship game (at least this year) is just a crutch/excuse that the Big 12 commissioner is holding on to and not the real reason the Big 12 got left out.*

*The real reason is that TCU didn’t beat Baylor. That would have solved ALL of their problems.

The Big Ten’s bad. And the Pac-12 might be right behind them.

I’ve heard a lot about the Big Ten’s poor performance last weekend. And while I agree, I haven’t heard much about the Pac-12’s rough weekend.

  1. Arizona got lucky to beat UTSA.
  2. Washington St loses by two scores to Nevada.
  3. Colorado squeaks by after giving up 38 points to UMASS!
  4. Washington barely holds on to beat a DI-AA team in Eastern Washington AT HOME!
  5. Stanford and USC did not look good against each other.
  6. UCLA gives up 35 points to Memphis and only wins by one score.
  7. Oregon St survives a scare vs Hawaii.

I’m not saying the Big Ten doesn’t deserve the heat they’re taking, but a few plays here and there, and the Pac-12 is in the same boat.

Thank You Notes

With Thanksgiving only a few days away, I wanted to show my gratitude. So I decided to write a few thank you notes.

Thank you, Utah Utes, for playing really well at home this year and somehow beating Stanford.

Thank you, Stanford Cardinal eight-and-nine-offensive-linemen formations, for playing old-school football and beating Oregon…again.

Thank you, Andre Heidari, for kicking the game winning field goal against the Cardinal, giving them their second conference loss.

Thank you, Josh Huff, for bagging on the Granddaddy of Them All and setting your team up for what is to follow.

Thank you, un-named players from the team in Baja Arizona, for obliterating and humbling an Oregon team that may have thought too highly of themselves (and for giving them their second conference loss).

Thank you, Carl Bradford, for your pick six that ended up being the difference maker in the Sun Devils Pac-12-South-Division-title-clinching victory over the UCLA Bruins.