Projecting the ACC: Team-by-Team Schedule Predictions

TL;DR – Clemson wins the conference and goes to the Playoff. Florida St. enjoys another trip to the Orange Bowl.

The predictions were based on the same advanced statistics ratings I use to rate each week’s games. Home teams were given a slight increase in ratings for home-field advantage.

Projected Final Standings


Atlantic

Team Overall Conference
Clemson 12-0 8-0
Florida St. 9-2 7-1
Louisville 10-2 6-2
NC State 6-6 4-4
Wake Forest 6-6 2-6
Syracuse 4-8 2-6
Boston College 3-9 0-8

Coastal

Team Overall Conference
Miami 9-2 7-1
Georgia Tech 7-4 6-2
Virginia Tech 9-3 5-3
North Carolina 5-7 3-5
Duke 6-6 2-6
Pitt 3-9 2-6
Virginia 2-10 0-8

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION

Clemson OVER Miami
 

ACC ATLANTIC


BOSTON COLLEGE

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 3-9
CONFERENCE: 0-8 (7th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Clemson
WIN vs. Central Michigan
LOSS vs. Virginia Tech
LOSS at Louisville
LOSS at Virginia
LOSS vs. Florida St.
LOSS vs. NC State
WIN vs. UConn (Fenway Park)
LOSS at Syracuse

CLEMSON

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 13-0
CONFERENCE: 9-0 (1st in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Boston College
WIN at Virginia Tech
WIN vs. Wake Forest
WIN at Syracuse
WIN vs. Georgia Tech
WIN at NC State
WIN vs. Florida St.
WIN vs. The Citadel
WIN at South Carolina
WIN vs. Miami (Conference Championship Game)

FLORIDA ST.

CURRENT: 0-1

OVERALL: 9-2
CONFERENCE: 7-1 (2nd in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. NC State
WIN vs. Wake Forest
WIN at Miami (FL)
WIN at Duke
WIN vs. Louisville
WIN at Boston College
WIN vs. Syracuse
LOSS at Clemson
WIN vs. Delaware St.
WIN at Florida

LOUISVILLE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 10-2
CONFERENCE: 6-2 (3rd in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Kent St.
WIN vs. Murray St.
WIN at NC State
WIN vs. Boston College
LOSS at Florida St.
WIN at Wake Forest
WIN vs. Virginia
WIN vs. Syracuse
WIN at Kentucky

NC STATE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 4-4 (4th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Florida St.
WIN vs. Syracuse
LOSS vs. Louisville
WIN at Pitt
LOSS at Notre Dame
LOSS vs. Clemson
WIN at Boston College
LOSS at Wake Forest
WIN vs. North Carolina

SYRACUSE

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 4-8
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (6th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at LSU
LOSS at NC State
WIN vs. Pitt
LOSS vs. Clemson
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS at Florida St.
LOSS vs. Wake Forest
LOSS at Louisville
WIN vs. Boston College

WAKE FOREST

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (5th in Atlantic)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN at Appalachian St.
LOSS vs. Florida St.
LOSS at Clemson
LOSS at Georgia Tech
LOSS vs. Louisville
LOSS at Notre Dame
WIN at Syracuse
LOSS vs. NC State
WIN vs. Duke

 

ACC COASTAL


DUKE

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 6-6
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (5th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at North Carolina
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)
WIN at Virginia
LOSS vs. Florida St.
WIN vs. Pitt
LOSS at Virginia Tech
WIN at Army
LOSS vs. Georgia Tech
LOSS at Wake Forest

GEORGIA TECH

CURRENT: 1-1

OVERALL: 7-4
CONFERENCE: 6-2 (2nd in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Pitt
WIN vs. North Carolina
LOSS at Miami (FL)
WIN vs. Wake Forest
LOSS at Clemson
WIN at Virginia
WIN vs. Virginia Tech
WIN at Duke
LOSS vs. Georgia

MIAMI

CURRENT: 1-0

OVERALL: 9-3
CONFERENCE: 7-2 (1st in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Toledo
WIN at Duke
LOSS at Florida St.
WIN vs. Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Syracuse
WIN at North Carolina
WIN vs. Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Notre Dame
WIN vs. Virginia
WIN at Pitt
LOSS vs. Clemson (Conference Championship)

NORTH CAROLINA

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 5-7
CONFERENCE: 3-5 (4th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Duke
LOSS at Georgia Tech
LOSS vs. Notre Dame
WIN vs. Virginia
LOSS at Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)
WIN at Pitt
WIN vs. Western Carolina
LOSS at NC State

PITT

CURRENT: 1-2

OVERALL: 3-9
CONFERENCE: 2-6 (6th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Rice
LOSS at Syracuse
LOSS vs. NC State
LOSS at Duke
WIN vs. Virginia
LOSS vs. North Carolina
LOSS at Virginia Tech
LOSS vs. Miami (FL)

VIRGINIA

CURRENT: 2-1

OVERALL: 2-10
CONFERENCE: 0-8 (7th in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

LOSS at Boise St.
LOSS vs. Duke
LOSS at North Carolina
LOSS vs. Boston College
LOSS at Pitt
LOSS vs. Georgia Tech
LOSS at Louisville
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS vs. Virginia Tech

VIRGINIA TECH

CURRENT: 3-0

OVERALL: 9-3
CONFERENCE: 5-3 (3rd in Coastal)

Remaining Schedule Predictions

WIN vs. Old Dominion
LOSS vs. Clemson
WIN at Boston College
WIN vs. North Carolina
WIN vs. Duke
LOSS at Miami (FL)
LOSS at Georgia Tech
WIN vs. Pitt
WIN at Virginia

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Ranking Scoring Offenses and Defenses Better – ACC Edition

Below are the expected points scored and given up percentages for ACC teams through 11/7/13.

For the full explanation, please read the original post.

SCORING OFFENSE

TEAM % OF EXPECTED POINTS FOR
1 Florida St 182%
2 Clemson 142%
3 Miami 138%
4 Georgia Tech 115%
5 Duke 112%
6 Boston College 111%
7 UNC 105%
8 Pitt 96%
9 NC St 93%
10 Maryland 89%
11 Syracuse 86%
12 Virginia Tech 83%
13 Virginia 76%
14 Wake Forest 66%

SCORING DEFENSE

TEAM % OF EXPECTED POINTS AGAINST
1 Florida St 51%
2 Virginia Tech 59%
3 Clemson 80%
4 Wake Forest 83%
5 Georgia Tech 83%
6 Miami 87%
7 Pitt 91%
8 NC St 96%
9 UNC 98%
10 Boston College 102%
11 Syracuse 106%
12 Duke 107%
13 Virginia 109%
14 Maryland 110%

COMBINED DIFFERENCE

TEAM COMBINED DIFFERENCE
1 Florida St 131%
2 Clemson 61%
3 Miami 50%
4 Georgia Tech 31%
5 Virginia Tech 24%
6 Boston College 9%
7 UNC 7%
8 Duke 5%
9 Pitt 4%
10 NC St -3%
11 Wake Forest -17%
12 Syracuse -21%
13 Maryland -22%
14 Virginia -33%

CONFERENCE AVERAGES

Avg Off Exp Pts % Avg Def Exp Pts % Avg Diff
Conference 107% 90% 16%
Atlantic Division 110% 90% 20%
Coastal Division 104% 91% 13%