Most OVERRATED and UNDERRATED teams going into 2016

I took a composite ranking from Bill Connelly’s (S&P+), Brian Fremeau’s (FEI), and ESPN’s (FPI) projected 2016 advanced stats ratings and compared them to the AP preseason poll*. Here are the results.

MOST OVERRATED: #15 HOUSTON

MOST UNDERRATED: MISSISSIPPI ST.

*I assigned rankings to all teams receiving points in the AP poll. For example, Miami got 159 points and was the first team to not get a ranking, so for the purposes of this, I ranked them as AP #26.

Note: I gave the computers a pass on Baylor. They have the Bears ranked #14, but they’re not aware of the off-season drama and understandably have probably overrated them.

MOST OVERRATED

TEAM AP RANK ADV. STATS COMPOSITE RK. DIFF.
Houston #15 #37 +22
TCU #13 #28 +15
Iowa #17 #32 +15
Michigan St. #12 #23 +11
Ohio St. #6 #12 +6

MOST UNDERRATED

TEAM AP RANK ADV. STATS COMPOSITE RK. DIFF.
Mississippi St. N/A (#43) #25 -18
Arkansas N/A (#35) #19 -16
Nebraska N/A (#37) #24 -13
USC #20 #8 -12
Auburn N/A (#33) #22 -11
Georgia #18 #9 -9
Oregon #24 #17 -7
Texas A&M N/A (#27) #21 -6
Ole Miss #11 #6 -5
Washington #14 #10 -4

College Football Playoff Ranking Using Advanced Stats – Week 14

This is what the College Football Playoff rankings would look like if the committee was comprised of the advanced stat ratings by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and ESPN. I applied the Committee’s voting process with a small amount of human intervention:

  • Two-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until the top-3 had been ranked.
  • Three-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until all undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams from the original consideration list had been exhausted.

Most Overrated Compared to Actual CFP Rankings

  1. Iowa – 12 spots
  2. Michigan St. – 4 spots
  3. Michigan – 3 spots

Most Underrated

  1. Western Kentucky – Not Ranked
  2. Baylor – 7 spots
  3. Florida – 5 spots

TOP FOUR

RK TEAM REC CHG* CFP RK
#1 Alabama 11-1 +1 #2
#2 Oklahoma 11-1 +1 #3
#3 Clemson 12-0 -2 #1
#4 Ohio St. 11-1 #6

FIRST OUT

#5 Baylor 9-2 +1 #12
#6 Notre Dame 10-2 -1 #8

THE REST

#7 Stanford 10-2 +3 #7
#8 Florida St. 10-2 +8 #9
#9 Michigan St. 11-1 +4 #5
#10 TCU 10-2 +5 #11
#11 North Carolina 11-1 +3 #10
#12 Ole Miss 9-3 +13 #13
#13 Florida 10-2 -6 #18
#14 Oklahoma St. 10-2 -5 #17
#15 Western Kentucky 10-2 UR N/A
#16 Iowa 12-0 +3 #4
#17 LSU 8-3 -5 #21
#18 Michigan 9-3 -7 #15
#19 Navy 9-2 -11 #23
#20 Houston 11-1 +3 #19
#21 Georgia 9-3 UR N/A
#22 USC 8-4 +2 #20
#23 Toledo 9-2 UR N/A
#24 Tennessee 8-4 UR #25
#25 Arkansas 7-5 UR N/A

*Change from Week 12

Here’s what the rankings would look like if I applied the process straight-up without regard to the record of any of the teams.

#1 Alabama 11-1
#2 Oklahoma 11-1
#3 Clemson 10-0
#4 Ohio St. 10-0
#5 Ole Miss 9-3
#6 Baylor 9-2
#7 Notre Dame 10-2
#8 Stanford 10-2
#9 TCU 10-2
#10 Florida St. 10-2
#11 Michigan St. 11-1
#12 USC 8-4
#13 Tennessee 8-4
#14 LSU 8-3
#15 Michigan 9-3
#16 North Carolina 11-1
#17 Navy 9-2
#18 Arkansas 7-5
#19 Florida 10-2
#20 West Virginia 7-4
#21 Western Kentucky 10-2
T-#22 Iowa 12-0
T-#22 Mississippi St. 8-4
T-#22 Washington 6-6
#25 Oklahoma St. 10-2

Who’s Really In? – College Football Playoff Rankings that Matter

Now that we have clarity on conference champions/championships, I’m going to apply some logic to the Playoff rankings from last week. The rankings will have some movement tomorrow, but we can take a look today at a set of rankings that actually means something.

The Committee has, in so many words, said that conference championships are one of the most important factors in deciding who’s in the Playoff. Therefore, it’s my belief that you must either win your conference, get second place, or that your only conference loss must be to the conference champion (better explanation here).

Here’s who is I believe should be eligible for the playoff and why.

  1. Clemson – Undefeated/possible ACC champion
  2. Alabama – Possible SEC champion
  3. Oklahoma – Big 12 Champion
  4. Iowa – Undefeated/possible Big Ten champion
  5. Michigan St. – Possible Big Ten champion
  6. Notre Dame – Because Notre Dame. And their two losses are to possible conference champions.
  7. Ohio St. – Their only conference loss was to Michigan St. (their division’s conference championship game representative)
  8. Stanford – Possible Pac-12 champion
  9. Florida – Possible SEC champion
  10. North Carolina – Possible ACC champion
  11. Navy – Only conference loss was to Houston (their division’s CCG representative)
  12. Temple – Possible AAC champion

No other teams matter. Obviously a four-loss USC or a runner-up in a G5 conference is not going to be in the Playoff. This is simply a list of those who were ranked and should be eligible for the final four.

My prediction: Clemson, Bama, OU, Michigan St.

College Football Playoff Ranking Using Advanced Stats – Week 12

This is what the College Football Playoff rankings would look like if the committee was comprised of the advanced stat ratings by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and ESPN. I applied the Committee’s voting process with a small amount of human intervention:

  • Two-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until the top-9 had been ranked.
  • Three-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until all undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams from the original consideration list had been exhausted.

TOP FOUR

RK TEAM REC CHG CFP RK
#1 Clemson 10-0 #1
#2 Alabama 9-1 #2
#3 Oklahoma 9-1 #7
#4 Ohio St. 10-0 #3

LOOKING IN

#5 Notre Dame 9-1 #4
#6 Baylor 8-1 #10

THE REST

#7 Florida 9-1 +4 #8
#8 Navy 8-1 +5 #16
#9 Oklahoma St. 10-0 +1 #6
#10 Stanford 8-2 -2 #11
#11 Michigan 8-2 +3 #12
#12 LSU 7-2 -5 #15
#13 Michigan St. 9-1 -1 #9
#14 North Carolina 9-1 +6 #17
#15 TCU 9-1 -6 #18
#16 Florida St. 8-2 #14
#17 Utah 8-2 #13
#18 Mississippi St. 7-3 -3 N/A
#19 Iowa 10-0 -1 #5
#20 UCLA 7-3 -1 N/A
#21 Bowling Green 8-2 UR N/A
#22 Wisconsin 8-2 +2 #25
#23 Houston 10-0 #19
#24 USC 7-3 +1 #24
#25 Ole Miss 7-3 -4 #22

Here’s what the rankings would look like if I applied the process straight-up without regard to the record of any of the teams.

#1 Alabama 9-1
#2 Clemson 10-0
#3 Oklahoma 9-1
#4 Ohio St. 10-0
#5 Notre Dame 9-1
#6 Baylor 8-1
#7 USC 7-3
#8 Stanford 8-2
#9 Ole Miss 7-3
#10 Michigan 8-2
#11 Florida 9-1
#12 LSU 7-2
#13 Navy 8-1
#14 Oklahoma St. 10-0
#15 Tennessee 6-4
#16 Florida St. 8-2
#17 North Carolina 9-1
#18 Mississippi St. 7-3
#19 UCLA 7-3
#20 Michigan St. 9-1
#21 TCU 9-1
#22 Arkansas 6-4
#23 Utah 8-2
#24 West Virginia 5-4
#25 Iowa 10-0

College Football Playoff Ranking Using Advanced Stats – Week 11

 

This is what the College Football Playoff rankings would look like if the committee was comprised of the advanced stat ratings by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and ESPN. I applied the Committee’s voting process with a small amount of human intervention:

  • Two-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until the top-13 had been ranked.
  • Three-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until all undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams from the original consideration list had been exhausted.

TOP FOUR

RK TEAM REC CHG CFP RK
#1 Clemson 9-0 #1
#2 Alabama 8-1 #2
#3 Oklahoma 8-1 +5 #12
#4 Ohio St. 9-0 -1 #3

LOOKING IN

#5 Notre Dame 8-1 +2 #4
#6 Baylor 8-0 -2 #6

THE REST

#7 LSU 7-1 -2 #9
#8 Stanford 8-1 +1 #7
#9 TCU 8-1 -3 #15
#10 Oklahoma St. 9-0 +8 #8
#11 Florida 8-1 -1 #11
#12 Michigan St. 8-1 -1 #13
#13 Navy 7-1 UR #20
#14 Michigan 7-2 +1 #14
#15 Mississippi St. 7-2 +1 #17
#16 Florida St. 7-2 -4 #16
#17 Utah 8-1 -4 #10
#18 Iowa 9-0 -4 #5
#19 UCLA 7-2 #19
#20 North Carolina 8-1 +2 #23
#21 Western Kentucky 8-2 UR N/A
#22 Ole Miss 7-3 -5 N/A
#23 Houston 9-0 #24
#24 Wisconsin 8-2 #25
#25 USC 6-3 UR N/A

Here’s what the rankings would look like if I applied the process straight-up without regard to the record of any of the teams.

#1 Clemson 9-0
#2 Alabama 8-1
#3 Oklahoma 8-1
#4 Ohio St. 9-0
#5 Notre Dame 8-1
#6 Baylor 8-0
#7 LSU 7-1
#8 USC 6-3
#9 Michigan 7-2
#10 Stanford 8-1
#11 TCU 8-1
#12 Florida 8-1
#13 Ole Miss 7-3
#14 Oklahoma St. 9-0
#15 Navy 7-1
#16 Mississippi St. 7-2
#17 Florida St. 7-2
#18 Tennessee 5-4
#19 UCLA 7-2
#20 Iowa 9-0
#21 Michigan St. 8-1
#22 Utah 8-1
#23 North Carolina 8-1
#24 Washington 4-5
#25 Western Kentucky 8-2

College Football Playoff Ranking Using Advanced Stats – Week 10

Better late than never.

The games have already been played, but I think this information makes what happened this weekend make a little more sense.

I took the same ranking systems I use to rate the games every week and applied the College Football Playoff committee’s voting process to find out what the top-25 would look like.

I did apply some human intervention to the rankings. For example, the committee the last two years did not put a two-loss team higher than 17 in the initial rankings. So I did not make two-loss teams eligible for ranking until the top-13 had already been ranked. I also did not use any teams with three or more losses. (Computers see things we don’t, but it’s important to not just look at who SHOULD win, but who is actually getting it done.) USC, for example, was ranked highly by all of the advanced stats rankings, but with three losses out of eight games, it’s just not logical to put them in the top-25 right now.

TOP FOUR

RK TEAM REC CFP Com. RK
#1 Clemson 7-0 #1
#2 Alabama 7-1 #4
#3 Ohio St. 8-0 #3
#4 Baylor 6-0 #6

LOOKING IN

#5 LSU 7-0 #2
#6 TCU 7-0 #8

THE REST

#7 Notre Dame 7-1 #5
#8 Oklahoma 7-1 #15
#9 Stanford 7-1 #11
#10 Florida 7-1 #10
#11 Michigan St. 8-0 #7
#12 Florida St. 7-1 #16
#13 Utah 7-1 #12
#14 Iowa 7-0 #9
#15 Michigan 6-2 #17
#16 Mississippi St. 5-2 #20
#17 Ole Miss 6-2 #18
#18 Oklahoma St. 7-0 #14
#19 UCLA 6-2 #23
#20 Texas A&M 6-2 #19
#21 Memphis 7-0 #13
#22 North Carolina 5-1 N/A
#23 Houston 7-0 #25
#24 Wisconsin 7-2 N/A
#25 Duke 5-2 N/A

Observations:

  • The numbers like Alabama a lot. And after Saturday night, it looks like they’re right.
  • The numbers do not like six undefeated teams. Michigan St. and Iowa are not getting a lot of love, nor is Oklahoma St. (!). The numbers especially don’t like the Group of 5 undefeateds: #21 Memphis, #23 Houston, and un-ranked Toledo (!).

Here’s what the rankings would look like if I applied the process straight-up without regard to the record of any of the teams.

#1 Clemson 7-0
#2 Alabama 7-1
#3 Ohio St. 8-0
#4 Baylor 6-0
#5 LSU 7-0
#6 Oklahoma 7-1
#7 Notre Dame 7-1
#8 TCU 7-0
#9 USC 5-3
#10 Florida 7-1
#11 Stanford 7-1
#12 Michigan 6-2
#13 Ole Miss 6-2
#14 Tennessee 3-4
#15 Mississippi St. 5-2
#16 Florida St. 7-1
#17 Michigan St. 8-0
#18 Utah 7-1
#19 Oklahoma St. 7-0
#20 Iowa 7-0
#21 Texas A&M 6-2
#22 Washington 3-4
#23 UCLA 6-2
#24 North Carolina 5-1
#25 Wisconsin 7-2

If I Were In Charge: Top 25 Rankings

My top-25 is formulated using a combination who-would-beat-who and who-has-beaten-who. Head-to-head match-ups were accounted for part of the rankings, but each team was run through at least 14 real and/or hypothetical match-ups and given points for each “win.”

  1. Alabama
  2. Oregon
  3. TCU
  4. Florida St.*
  5. Ohio St.
  6. Baylor
  7. Ole Miss
  8. Mississippi St.
  9. Georgia Tech
  10. Georgia
  11. Auburn
  12. Michigan St.
  13. Wisconsin
  14. Clemson
  15. Oklahoma
  16. Kansas St.
  17. Louisville
  18. LSU
  19. UCLA
  20. Arizona
  21. Missouri
  22. Arkansas
  23. Arizona St.
  24. USC
  25. Nebraska

*Only ranked this high because of the playoff system. If an undefeated Power 5 conference team does not get ranked in the top four, riots.