College Football Week 4

Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 1 1 4 0
2 Oklahoma 5 3 1 +1
2 Ohio St. 3 4 2 0
4 Clemson 6 5 3 0
5 Florida St. 2 6 9 0
6 Penn St. 4 9 5 +1
7 Wisconsin 8 12 6 +5
8 Washington 7 13 7 +3
9 USC 10 7 12 -1
10 TCU 16 8 11 +5
11 Oklahoma St. 13 15 8 N/A
12 Stanford 14 10 13 -3
13 Georgia 19 2 17 +1
14 Michigan 11 11 18 -1
15 Auburn 12 16 16 N/A

WEEK 3 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 4-6 .400 0-1 .000
Overall 21-12 .636 2-4 .333

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#16 TCU at #6 OKLAHOMA ST.
Sat., Sep. 23, 12:30 PM, ESPN

FOUR-STAR GAME

#17 Mississippi St. at #11 GEORGIA
Sat., Sep. 23, 4:00 PM, ESPN

THREE-STAR GAMES

UCLA at STANFORD
Sat., Sep. 23, 7:30 PM, ESPN

Duke at NORTH CAROLINA*
Sat., Sep. 23, 12:30 PM, ESPNU

#20 FLORIDA at Kentucky
Sat., Sep. 23, 4:30 PM, SECN

Arkansas vs. TEXAS A&M (in Arlington)
Sat., Sep. 23, 9:00 AM, ESPN

#23 UTAH at Arizona
Fri., Sep. 22, 7:30 PM, FS1

NOTRE DAME at Michigan St.
Sat., Sep. 23, 5:00 PM, FOX

Texas Tech at HOUSTON
Sat., Sep. 23, 9:00 AM, ESPN2

Toledo at #14 MIAMI
Sat., Sep. 23, 12:30 PM, FSN/WatchESPN

WAKE FOREST at Appalachian St.
Sat., Sep. 23, 12:30 PM, ESPN3

Pitt at GEORGIA TECH
Sat., Sep. 23, 9:20 AM, ACCN/CW

NC State at #12 FLORIDA ST.
Sat., Sep. 23, 9:00 AM, ABC

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Temple at #21 South Florida
4:30 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY

Virginia at Boise St.
5:00 PM, ESPN2

#23 Utah at Arizona
7:30 PM, FS1

SATURDAY MORNING

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington)
9:00 AM, ESPN

Texas Tech at Houston
9:00 AM, ESPN2

Pitt at Georgia Tech
9:20 AM, ACCN/CW

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#16 TCU at #6 Oklahoma St.
12:30 PM, ESPN

Duke at North Carolina 
12:30 PM, ESPNU

Toledo at #14 Miami
12:30 PM, FSN/WatchESPN

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#17 Mississippi St. at #11 Georgia
4:00 PM, ESPN

#20 Florida at Kentucky
4:30 PM, SECN

Notre Dame at Michigan St.
5:00 PM, FOX

SATURDAY NIGHT

UCLA at Stanford
7:30 PM, ESPN

#24 Oregon at Arizona St.
7:00 PM, PAC12

#7 Washington at Colorado
7:00 PM, FS1

Hawai’i at Wyoming
7:15 PM, ESPN2

SUNDAY

East Carolina at UConn
9:00 AM, ESPNU

Advertisements

College Football Week 3

Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 1 1 3 0
2 Ohio St. 4 2 1 0
3 Oklahoma 6 3 2 +1
4 Clemson 5 4 4 -1
5 Florida St. 3 5 6 0
6 LSU 2 8 10 0
7 Penn St. 8 10 5 +2
8 USC 7 7 12 0
9 Stanford 11 11 9 -2
10 Auburn 10 15 8 0
11 Washington 12 12 7 +1
12 Wisconsin 12 13 11 -1
13 Michigan 9 12 17 0
14 Georgia 20 6 15 0
15 TCU 19 11 14 N/A

WEEK 2 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 11-3 .786 2-1 .667
Overall 17-6 .739 2-3 .400

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#3 CLEMSON at #14 Louisville
Sat., Sep. 16, 5:00 PM, ABC

FOUR-STAR GAME

#23 Tennessee at #24 FLORIDA
Sat., Sep. 16, 12:30 PM, CBS

THREE-STAR GAMES

#18 K-STATE at Vanderbilt
Sat., Sep. 16, 4:30 PM, ESPNU

Texas at #4 USC
Sat., Sep. 16, 5:30 PM, FOX

#12 LSU at Mississippi St.
Sat., Sep. 16, 4:00 PM, ESPN

#25 UCLA at Memphis
Sat., Sep. 16, 9:00 AM, ABC

Kentucky at SOUTH CAROLINA
Sat., Sep. 16, 4:30 PM, SECN

#9 OKLAHOMA ST. at Pitt
Sat., Sep. 16, 9:00 AM, ESPN

BAYLOR* at Duke
Sat., Sep. 16, 9:30 AM, FSN

OLE MISS at Cal
Sat., Sep. 16, 7:30 PM, ESPN

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

New Mexico at Boise St.
5:00 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY

Illinois at #22 South Florida
4:00 PM, ESPN

UMass at Temple
4:00 PM, ESPNU

Arizona at UTEP
7:15 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY MORNING

#25 UCLA at Memphis
9:00 AM, ABC

#9 Oklahoma St. at Pitt
9:00 AM, ESPN

Baylor at Duke
9:30 AM, FSN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#23 Tennessee at #24 Florida
12:30 PM, CBS

#10 Wisconsin at BYU 
12:30 PM, ABC

SMU at #20 TCU
12:30 PM, ESPNU

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Arizona St. at Texas Tech
5:00 PM, FSN

#3 Clemson at #14 Louisville
5:00 PM, ABC

#18 K-State at Vanderbilt
4:30 PM, ESPNU

Texas at #4 USC
5:30 PM, FOX

SATURDAY NIGHT

Ole Miss at Cal
7:30 PM, ESPN

#19 Stanford at San Diego St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN

Fresno St. at #6 Washington
6:30 PM, PAC12

San José St. at Utah
7:00 PM, ESPN2

College Football Advanced Stats Composite Top 15 – Week 2

Using my favorite college football analytics rankings, here is a composite of the top 15 after week 1.

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI
1 Alabama 1 1 2
2 Ohio St. 2 2 1
3 Clemson 3 4 4
4 Oklahoma 6 5 3
5 Florida St. 5 3 9
6 LSU 4 9 10
7 Stanford 11 8 5
8 USC 7 7 12
9 Penn St. 10 10 6
10 Auburn 8 13 8
11 Wisconsin 12 12 7
12 Washington 13 11 11
13 Michigan 9 14 15
14 Georgia 21 6 13
15 Notre Dame 17 17 14

Most OVERRATED and UNDERRATED teams going into 2016

I took a composite ranking from Bill Connelly’s (S&P+), Brian Fremeau’s (FEI), and ESPN’s (FPI) projected 2016 advanced stats ratings and compared them to the AP preseason poll*. Here are the results.

MOST OVERRATED: #15 HOUSTON

MOST UNDERRATED: MISSISSIPPI ST.

*I assigned rankings to all teams receiving points in the AP poll. For example, Miami got 159 points and was the first team to not get a ranking, so for the purposes of this, I ranked them as AP #26.

Note: I gave the computers a pass on Baylor. They have the Bears ranked #14, but they’re not aware of the off-season drama and understandably have probably overrated them.

MOST OVERRATED

TEAM AP RANK ADV. STATS COMPOSITE RK. DIFF.
Houston #15 #37 +22
TCU #13 #28 +15
Iowa #17 #32 +15
Michigan St. #12 #23 +11
Ohio St. #6 #12 +6

MOST UNDERRATED

TEAM AP RANK ADV. STATS COMPOSITE RK. DIFF.
Mississippi St. N/A (#43) #25 -18
Arkansas N/A (#35) #19 -16
Nebraska N/A (#37) #24 -13
USC #20 #8 -12
Auburn N/A (#33) #22 -11
Georgia #18 #9 -9
Oregon #24 #17 -7
Texas A&M N/A (#27) #21 -6
Ole Miss #11 #6 -5
Washington #14 #10 -4

College Football Playoff Ranking Using Advanced Stats – Week 14

This is what the College Football Playoff rankings would look like if the committee was comprised of the advanced stat ratings by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and ESPN. I applied the Committee’s voting process with a small amount of human intervention:

  • Two-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until the top-3 had been ranked.
  • Three-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until all undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams from the original consideration list had been exhausted.

Most Overrated Compared to Actual CFP Rankings

  1. Iowa – 12 spots
  2. Michigan St. – 4 spots
  3. Michigan – 3 spots

Most Underrated

  1. Western Kentucky – Not Ranked
  2. Baylor – 7 spots
  3. Florida – 5 spots

TOP FOUR

RK TEAM REC CHG* CFP RK
#1 Alabama 11-1 +1 #2
#2 Oklahoma 11-1 +1 #3
#3 Clemson 12-0 -2 #1
#4 Ohio St. 11-1 #6

FIRST OUT

#5 Baylor 9-2 +1 #12
#6 Notre Dame 10-2 -1 #8

THE REST

#7 Stanford 10-2 +3 #7
#8 Florida St. 10-2 +8 #9
#9 Michigan St. 11-1 +4 #5
#10 TCU 10-2 +5 #11
#11 North Carolina 11-1 +3 #10
#12 Ole Miss 9-3 +13 #13
#13 Florida 10-2 -6 #18
#14 Oklahoma St. 10-2 -5 #17
#15 Western Kentucky 10-2 UR N/A
#16 Iowa 12-0 +3 #4
#17 LSU 8-3 -5 #21
#18 Michigan 9-3 -7 #15
#19 Navy 9-2 -11 #23
#20 Houston 11-1 +3 #19
#21 Georgia 9-3 UR N/A
#22 USC 8-4 +2 #20
#23 Toledo 9-2 UR N/A
#24 Tennessee 8-4 UR #25
#25 Arkansas 7-5 UR N/A

*Change from Week 12

Here’s what the rankings would look like if I applied the process straight-up without regard to the record of any of the teams.

#1 Alabama 11-1
#2 Oklahoma 11-1
#3 Clemson 10-0
#4 Ohio St. 10-0
#5 Ole Miss 9-3
#6 Baylor 9-2
#7 Notre Dame 10-2
#8 Stanford 10-2
#9 TCU 10-2
#10 Florida St. 10-2
#11 Michigan St. 11-1
#12 USC 8-4
#13 Tennessee 8-4
#14 LSU 8-3
#15 Michigan 9-3
#16 North Carolina 11-1
#17 Navy 9-2
#18 Arkansas 7-5
#19 Florida 10-2
#20 West Virginia 7-4
#21 Western Kentucky 10-2
T-#22 Iowa 12-0
T-#22 Mississippi St. 8-4
T-#22 Washington 6-6
#25 Oklahoma St. 10-2

Who’s Really In? – College Football Playoff Rankings that Matter

Now that we have clarity on conference champions/championships, I’m going to apply some logic to the Playoff rankings from last week. The rankings will have some movement tomorrow, but we can take a look today at a set of rankings that actually means something.

The Committee has, in so many words, said that conference championships are one of the most important factors in deciding who’s in the Playoff. Therefore, it’s my belief that you must either win your conference, get second place, or that your only conference loss must be to the conference champion (better explanation here).

Here’s who is I believe should be eligible for the playoff and why.

  1. Clemson – Undefeated/possible ACC champion
  2. Alabama – Possible SEC champion
  3. Oklahoma – Big 12 Champion
  4. Iowa – Undefeated/possible Big Ten champion
  5. Michigan St. – Possible Big Ten champion
  6. Notre Dame – Because Notre Dame. And their two losses are to possible conference champions.
  7. Ohio St. – Their only conference loss was to Michigan St. (their division’s conference championship game representative)
  8. Stanford – Possible Pac-12 champion
  9. Florida – Possible SEC champion
  10. North Carolina – Possible ACC champion
  11. Navy – Only conference loss was to Houston (their division’s CCG representative)
  12. Temple – Possible AAC champion

No other teams matter. Obviously a four-loss USC or a runner-up in a G5 conference is not going to be in the Playoff. This is simply a list of those who were ranked and should be eligible for the final four.

My prediction: Clemson, Bama, OU, Michigan St.

College Football Playoff Ranking Using Advanced Stats – Week 12

This is what the College Football Playoff rankings would look like if the committee was comprised of the advanced stat ratings by Bill Connelly, Brian Fremeau, and ESPN. I applied the Committee’s voting process with a small amount of human intervention:

  • Two-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until the top-9 had been ranked.
  • Three-loss teams were not included in any listing steps until all undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams from the original consideration list had been exhausted.

TOP FOUR

RK TEAM REC CHG CFP RK
#1 Clemson 10-0 #1
#2 Alabama 9-1 #2
#3 Oklahoma 9-1 #7
#4 Ohio St. 10-0 #3

LOOKING IN

#5 Notre Dame 9-1 #4
#6 Baylor 8-1 #10

THE REST

#7 Florida 9-1 +4 #8
#8 Navy 8-1 +5 #16
#9 Oklahoma St. 10-0 +1 #6
#10 Stanford 8-2 -2 #11
#11 Michigan 8-2 +3 #12
#12 LSU 7-2 -5 #15
#13 Michigan St. 9-1 -1 #9
#14 North Carolina 9-1 +6 #17
#15 TCU 9-1 -6 #18
#16 Florida St. 8-2 #14
#17 Utah 8-2 #13
#18 Mississippi St. 7-3 -3 N/A
#19 Iowa 10-0 -1 #5
#20 UCLA 7-3 -1 N/A
#21 Bowling Green 8-2 UR N/A
#22 Wisconsin 8-2 +2 #25
#23 Houston 10-0 #19
#24 USC 7-3 +1 #24
#25 Ole Miss 7-3 -4 #22

Here’s what the rankings would look like if I applied the process straight-up without regard to the record of any of the teams.

#1 Alabama 9-1
#2 Clemson 10-0
#3 Oklahoma 9-1
#4 Ohio St. 10-0
#5 Notre Dame 9-1
#6 Baylor 8-1
#7 USC 7-3
#8 Stanford 8-2
#9 Ole Miss 7-3
#10 Michigan 8-2
#11 Florida 9-1
#12 LSU 7-2
#13 Navy 8-1
#14 Oklahoma St. 10-0
#15 Tennessee 6-4
#16 Florida St. 8-2
#17 North Carolina 9-1
#18 Mississippi St. 7-3
#19 UCLA 7-3
#20 Michigan St. 9-1
#21 TCU 9-1
#22 Arkansas 6-4
#23 Utah 8-2
#24 West Virginia 5-4
#25 Iowa 10-0