Tag Archives: college football week 10

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 10

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Advanced Stats Weighted Composite Rankings

RK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI CHG
1 Clemson 2 1 2 +1
2 Alabama 1 4 1 -1
3 Georgia 5 2 3
4 Oklahoma 3 5 4
5 Michigan 4 6 5
6 Notre Dame 6 12 8 +1
7 Washington 7 10 9  -1
8 LSU 13 3 10
9 Ohio St. 8 14 6
10 Penn St. 10 13 7 +1
11 Florida 18 11 12 -1
12 Utah 12 19 11 +5
13 Mississippi St. 14 16 15
14 Iowa 24 9 14  -2
15 West Virginia 16 23 13 +7
Others: #16 Fresno St., #17 Auburn, #18 Washington St., #19 Michigan St., #20 Miami, #21 Kentucky, #22 UCF, #23 Purdue, #24 Missouri, #25 Texas Tech

MOST OVER-RATED TEAMS BY CFP POLL

  1. #19 Syracuse (22 spots)
  2. #25 Virginia (17 spots)
  3. #17 Texas (14 spots)
  4. #22 UCF (14 spots)
  5. #9 Kentucky (12 spots)

MOST UNDER-RATED TEAMS BY CFP POLL

  1. #23 Fresno St. (7 spots)
  2. #18 Mississippi St. (5 spots)
  3. #14 Penn St. (4 spots)
  4. #15 Utah (3 spots)
  5. #7 Oklahoma, #6 Georgia (3 spots)

BEST TEAMS LEFT OFF CFP POLL

  1. Washington
  2. Auburn
  3. Michigan St.
  4. Miami
  5. Purdue

UPSET WATCH

  • #20 Texas A&M at Auburn
  • #22 Boston College at Virginia Tech
  • #16 Iowa at Purdue
  • #13 West Virginia at #17 Texas
  • Missouri at #11 Florida
  • #14 Penn St. at #5 Michigan

Times AZ and Eastern. Rankings below are AP until CFP rankings are available.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#14 Penn St. at #5 Michigan
Saturday, 12:45/3:45 PM, ESPN

OTHER FOUR-STAR GAMES

#13 West Virginia at #17 Texas
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, FOX

#16 Iowa at Purdue
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

Missouri at #11 Florida
Saturday, 1:00/4:00 PM, SECN

#20 Texas A&M at Auburn
Saturday, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

#1 Alabama at #3 LSU
Saturday, 5:00/8:00 PM, CBS

Duke at Miami
Saturday, 4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

THREE-STAR GAMES

#6 Georgia at #9 Kentucky
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, CBS

#22 Boston College at Virginia Tech
Saturday, 12:45/3:45 PM, ACCN

Stanford at Washington
Saturday, 6:00/9:00 PM, PAC12

South Carolina at Ole Miss
Saturday, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, SECN

#7 Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Saturday, 5:00/8:00 PM, ABC

Michigan St. at Maryland
Saturday, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

Temple at #12 UCF
Thursday, 4:30/7:30 PM, ESPN

#15 Utah at Arizona St.
Saturday, 1:00/4:00 PM, PAC12

Colorado at Arizona
Friday, 7:30/10:30 PM, FS1

Cal at #8 Washington St.
Saturday, 7:45/10:45 PM, ESPN

Pitt at #25 Virginia
Friday, 4:30/7:30 PM, ESPN2

#4 Notre Dame at Northwestern
Saturday, 4:15/7:15 PM, ESPN

Florida St. at #21 NC State
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, ABC


What I’m going to watch…

FRIDAY PRIMETIME

Pitt at #25 Virginia
4:30/7:30 PM, ESPN2

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee
5:00/8:00 PM, CBSSN

FRIDAY NIGHT

Colorado at Arizona
7:30/10:30 PM, FS1

SATURDAY MORNING

#20 Texas A&M at Auburn
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

South Carolina at Ole Miss
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, SECN

Michigan St. at Maryland
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#15 Utah at Arizona St. 
1:00/4:00 PM, PAC12

#14 Penn St. at #5 Michigan
12:45/3:45 PM, ESPN

#13 West Virginia at #17 Texas
12:30/3:30 PM, FOX

#16 Iowa at Purdue
12:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

Missouri at #11 Florida 
1:00/4:00 PM, SECN

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#1 Alabama at #3 LSU
5:00/8:00 PM, CBS

Duke at Miami
4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

#7 Oklahoma at Texas Tech
5:00/8:00 PM, ABC

SATURDAY NIGHT

Stanford at Washington
6:00/9:00 PM, PAC12

Cal at #8 Washington St.
7:45/10:45 PM, ESPN

BYU at Boise St.
7:15/10:15 PM, ESPN

San Diego St. at New Mexico
7:15/10:15 PM, ESPNU

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Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 10

Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Ohio St. 1 4 2 +1
2 Georgia 3 1 5 +2
3 Alabama 2 13 1 -2
4 Notre Dame 9 3 4  +1
5 Penn St. 7 7 3 -2
6 Clemson 11 2 6
7 Washington 4 10 7
8 Oklahoma 13 6 8 +1
9 TCU 12 5 12 -1
10 Wisconsin 6 14 10 +1
11 Oklahoma St. 8 11 11  -1
12 Auburn 10 12 9
13 UCF 5 9 19 +1
14 Miami 14 15 16 -1
15 Virginia Tech 15 17 13  N/A

Dropped from rankings: Stanford

WEEK 9 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-8 .467 1-1 .500
Overall 64-43 .598 9-13 .409

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#5 OKLAHOMA at #11 Oklahoma St.
Sat., Nov. 4, 1:00/4:00 PM, FS1

FOUR-STAR GAMES

#13 Virginia Tech at #10 MIAMI
Sat., Nov. 4, 5:00/8:00 PM, ABC

#21 STANFORD at #25 Washington St.
Sat., Nov. 4, 12:30/3:30 PM, FOX

THREE-STAR GAMES

#15 IOWA ST. at West Virginia
Sat., Nov. 4, 12:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

K-State at TEXAS TECH
Sat., Nov. 4, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FS1

#22 Arizona at #17 USC
Sat., Nov. 4, 7:45/10:45 PM, ESPN

Texas at #8 TCU
Sat., Nov. 4, 4:15/7:15 PM, ESPN

#4 CLEMSON #20 NC State
Sat., Nov. 4, 12:30/3:30 PM, ABC

SYRACUSE* at Florida St.
Sat., Nov. 4, 9:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

Colorado at ARIZONA ST.
Sat., Nov. 4, 6:00/9:00 PM, PAC12

#7 PENN ST. at #24 Michigan St.
Sat., Nov. 4, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

Minnesota at MICHIGAN
Sat., Nov. 4, 4:30/7:30 PM, FOX

UCLA* at Utah
Fri., Nov. 3, 6:30/9:30 PM, FS1

#19 LSU at #2 ALABAMA
Sat., Nov. 4, 5:00/8:00 PM, CBS

Wake Forest at #3 NOTRE DAME
Sat., Nov. 4, 12:30/3:30 PM, NBC

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Northern Illinois at Toledo
3:00/6:00 PM, ESPNU

Navy at Temple
5:00/8:00 PM, ESPN

Idaho at Troy
6:15/9:15 PM, ESPNU

FRIDAY

Marshall at Florida Atlantic
3:00/6:00 PM, CBSSN

UCLA at Utah
6:30/9:30 PM, FS1

#23 Memphis at Tulsa
5:00/8:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

K-State at Texas Tech
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FS1

Syracuse at Florida St.
9:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

#7 Penn St. at #24 Michigan St.
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#5 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma St.
1:00/4:00 PM, FOX

#21 Stanford at #25 Washington St. 
12:30/3:30 PM, FOX

#15 Iowa St. at West Virginia
12:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Colorado at Arizona St.
6:00/9:00 PM, PAC12

#13 Virginia Tech at #10 Miami
5:00/8:00 PM, ABC

Texas at #8 TCU
4:15/7:15 PM, ESPN

Minnesota at Michigan
4:30/7:30 PM, FOX

SATURDAY NIGHT

#22 Arizona at #17 USC
7:45/10:45 PM, ESPN

Oregon at #12 Washington
7:00/10:00 PM, FS1

BYU at Fresno St.
7:45/10:45 PM, ESPN2

What to Watch – Week 10: The Best of This Week’s College Football Games

Hard Rock Stadium

Hard Rock Stadium

Apologies to the Tuesday and Wednesday night MAC teams for their exclusion from this week’s post.

The formula has been ranking too many games highly that have ended in lopsided margins, so it has been tweaked. The results were unexpected. Some noteworthy games were bumped down (Bama/LSU from 4 to 3 stars, Nebraska/tOSU and Wisconsin/Northwestern from 3 to 2 stars). We shall see how it plays out.

The games are ranked using a zero- to five-star scale. Five stars meaning that you should make every human effort possible aside from committing a crime to watch this game (it’s time your children learned to feed themselves) and zero stars meaning you probably shouldn’t waste your time.

See the second half of the post for this week’s viewing guide.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, ESPN’s, and Ed Feng’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 6-5 .545 2-1 .667
Overall 83-34 .709 16-10 .615

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

PITT* at Miami
Sat., Nov. 5, 9:30 AM, CW?/WatchESPN
Overtime Watch

THREE-STAR GAMES

Iowa at #12 PENN ST.
Sat., Nov. 5, 4:30 PM, BTN
Upset Alert
Note: a composite ranking using the four systems mentioned above puts Penn St. at (22)

UCLA at #15 COLORADO
Thu., Nov. 3, 6:00 PM, FS1
Composite computer top 25: (13) Colorado

#1 ALABAMA at #13 LSU
Sat., Nov. 5, 5:00 PM, CBS
Composite computer top 25: (1) Alabama at (8) LSU

TEXAS at Texas Tech
Sat., Nov. 5, 9:00 AM, FS1

TCU at #17 BAYLOR
Sat., Nov. 5, 12:30 PM, FOX
Composite computer top 25: (16) Baylor

Oregon at USC
Sat., Nov. 5, 4:00 PM, ESPN
Composite computer top 25: (18) USC

Georgia Tech at #21 NORTH CAROLINA
Sat., Nov. 5, 9:30 AM, CW?/WatchESPN
Composite computer top 25: North Carolina unranked

#18 OKLAHOMA ST.*** at K-State
Sat., Nov. 5, 12:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2
Composite computer top 25: Oklahoma St. unranked

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking


VIEWING GUIDE

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the games that are projected to be the most fun to watch. All times AZ.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

Arkansas St. at Georgia St.
4:30 PM, ESPNU
Toilet Bowl

#14 Oklahoma at Iowa St.
4:30 PM, ESPN
Blowout Warning

Buffalo at Ohio
3:00 PM, CBSSN
Toilet Bowl

THURSDAY NIGHT

UCLA at #15 Colorado
6:00 PM, FS1

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

Central Michigan at Miami-Ohio
3:00 PM, CBSSN
Toilet Bowl

Temple at UConn
4:00 PM, ESPN2

FRIDAY NIGHT

San Jose St. at #24 Boise St.
7:15 PM, ESPN2
Blowout Warning

SATURDAY MORNING

Pitt at Miami 
9:30 AM, CW?/WatchESPN
Game of the Week / Overtime Watch

Texas at Texas Tech
9:00 AM, FS1

Georgia Tech at #21 North Carolina
9:30 AM, CW?/WatchESPN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

TCU at #17 Baylor
12:30 PM, FOX

#18 Oklahoma St. at K-State
12:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2

#11 Florida at Arkansas
12:30 PM, CBS

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

Iowa at #12 Penn St. 
4:30 PM, BTN
Upset Alert

#1 Alabama at #13 LSU 
5:00 PM, CBS

Oregon at USC 
4:00 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY NIGHT

#5 Washington at Cal
7:30 PM, ESPN
Blowout Warning

Utah St. at Wyoming
7:15 PM, ESPN2

Nevada at New Mexico
7:15 PM, ESPNU
Toilet Bowl

College Football Week 10 Superlatives

Here are some of the projected best and worst of the upcoming slate of games.

Games of the Week

Power 5 #2 LSU at #4 Alabama
Group of 5 Navy at #13 Memphis

Upset Specials

Games with a ranked team most likely to be upset
#2 LSU at #4 Alabama
#12 Utah at Washington
Navy at #13 Memphis
Penn St. at #21 Northwestern

Best Games Featuring Two Un-Ranked Teams

Power 5 Group of 5
Duke at North Carolina Marshall at Middle Tennessee
Cal at Oregon Ohio at Bowling Green
Texas Tech at West Virginia

Overtime Bowls

Most likely to go into overtime / Best Match-Up
Power 5 #2 LSU at #4 Alabama
Group of 5 South Florida at East Carolina

Blowout Bowls

Most likely to have a huge margin of victory / Worst Match-Up
Power 5 #17 Michigan over Rutgers
Group of 5 Louisiana Tech over North Texas

Toilet Bowls

Worst combined ratings of the two teams
Power 5 Kansas at Texas
Group of 5 Rice at UTEP

Plan Accordingly: Week 10 College Football Viewing Guide

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the highest projected “watchability.” All times AZ.

Wednesday

Ohio at Bowling Green 6:00 PM ESPN2

Thursday Afternoon

Arkansas St. at Appalachian St. 5:30 PM ESPNU
#6 Baylor at K-State 5:30 PM FS1
Ball St. at Western Michigan 5:30 PM CBSSN

Thursday Night

#20 Mississippi St. at Missouri 7:00 PM ESPN
Nevada at Fresno St. 8:30 PM ESPN2

Friday Afternoon

#22 Temple at SMU 6:00 PM ESPN2
Rice at UTEP – Toilet Bowl 6:00 PM CBSSN

Friday Night

BYU at San Jose St. 9:30 PM CBSSN

Saturday Morning

Duke at North Carolina 10:00 AM ESPN2
Texas Tech at West Virginia 10:00 AM FS1
Penn St. at #21 Northwestern – Upset Special 10:00 AM ESPNU

Saturday Midday

#8 TCU at #14 Oklahoma St. 1:30 PM FOX
Arkansas at #18 Ole Miss 1:30 PM CBS
#16 Florida St. at #1 Clemson 1:30 PM ABC

Saturday Evening

#2 LSU at #4 Alabama – Game of the Week / Power 5 Overtime Bowl / Upset Special 6:00 PM CBS
#12 Utah at Washington – Upset Special 5:30 PM FOX
Navy at #13 Memphis – Group of 5 Game of the Week / Upset Special 5:00 PM ESPN2

Saturday Night

Cal at Oregon 8:30 PM ESPN2
Arizona at USC 8:30 PM ESPN

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 10

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

The percentages below are projected “watchability” percentage scores. This is the likelihood that the game will be “good.” Five-star games will have a percentage of 90% or greater, four-star will be 75-89%, and three-stars will be 55-74%.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-3 .700 0-1 .000
Overall 66-36 .647 9-12 .429

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#2 LSU at #4 Alabama 96% Sat. 6:00 PM CBS BAMA**

4-Star Games

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#12 Utah at Washington 81% Sat. 5:30 PM FOX UW**
#8 TCU at #14 Oklahoma St.

80% Sat. 1:30 PM FOX TCU

3-Star Games

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
Navy at #13 Memphis 75% Sat. 5:00 PM ESPN2 MEM
Duke at North Carolina 72% Sat. 10:00 AM ESPN2 UNC
Arkansas at #18 Ole Miss 70% Sat. 1:30 PM CBS MISS
Cal at Oregon 68% Sat. 8:30 PM ESPN2 CAL*
#16 Florida St. at #1 Clemson 65% Sat. 1:30 PM ABC CLEM
Texas Tech at West Virginia 65% Sat. 10:00 AM FS1 WVU
Cincinnati at #25 Houston 61% Sat. 1:30 PM ESPN2 HOU
Auburn at #19 Texas A&M 59% Sat. 5:30 PM SECN TAMU
#7 Michigan St. at Nebraska 56% Sat. 5:00 PM ESPN MSU
Penn St. at #21 Northwestern 56% Sat. 10:00 AM ESPNU NW

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking