Tag Archives: college football week 11

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 11

Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX

Advanced Stats Weighted Composite Rankings

RK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI CHG
1 Alabama 1 1 1 +1
2 Clemson 2 5 2 -1
3 Georgia 5 2 3
4 Michigan 3 4 4 +1
5 Oklahoma 4 3 5 -1
6 Notre Dame 6 7 8
7 Washington 10 10 9
8 Ohio St. 9 19 6 +1
9 Mississippi St. 11 13 10 +4
10 Penn St. 12 22 7
11 LSU 22 8 12 -3
12 West Virginia 18 17 11 +3
13 Missouri 20 12 15 +11
14 Fresno St. 7 23 18 +2
15 UCF 8 9 32 +7
Others: #16 Michigan St., #17 Iowa, #18 Auburn, #19 Purdue, #20 Utah, #21 Washington St., #22 Utah St., #23 Florida, #24 iowa St., #25 Miami

MOST OVER-RATED TEAMS BY CFP POLL

  1. #13 Syracuse (30 spots)
  2. #14 NC State (19 spots)
  3. #17 Boston College (18 spots)
  4. #11 Kentucky (16 spots)
  5. #8 Washington St. and #19 Texas (13 spots)

MOST UNDER-RATED TEAMS BY CFP POLL

  1. #25 Washington (18 spots)
  2. #20 Penn St. (10 spots)
  3. #23 Fresno St. (9 spots)
  4. #16 Mississippi St. (7 spots)
  5. #24 Auburn (6 spots)

BEST TEAMS LEFT OFF CFP POLL

  1. Missouri
  2. Purdue
  3. Utah
  4. Utah St.
  5. Miami

UPSET WATCH

  • #19 Texas at Texas Tech
  • South Carolina at #15 Florida

Times AZ and Eastern. Rankings below are AP until CFP rankings are available.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#19 Texas at Texas Tech
Saturday, 5:30/7:30 PM, FOX

OTHER FOUR-STAR GAMES

#10 Ohio St. at #18 Michigan St.
Saturday, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

Wisconsin at #20 Penn St.
Saturday, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC

#23 Fresno St. at Boise St.
Friday, 8:15/10:15 PM, ESPN2

Miami at Georgia Tech
Saturday, 5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

THREE-STAR GAMES

South Carolina at #15 Florida
Saturday, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

#24 Auburn at #5 Georgia
Saturday, 5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

#16 Mississippi St. at #1 Alabama
Saturday, 1:30/3:30 PM, CBS

Cal at USC
Saturday, 8:30/10:30 PM, ESPN

Northwestern at #21 Iowa
Saturday, 1:30/3:30 PM, FOX

Oregon at Utah
Saturday, 3:30/5:30 PM, PAC12

Temple at Houston
Saturday, 5:00/7:00 PM, CBSSN

TCU at #9 West Virginia
Saturday, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FS1

Virginia Tech at Pitt
Saturday, 1:30/3:30 PM, ESPNU

Ole Miss at Texas A&M
Saturday, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, CBS

#8 Washington St. at Colorado
Saturday, 1:30/3:30 PM, ESPN

Oklahoma St. at #6 Oklahoma
Saturday, 1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

Maryland at Indiana
Saturday, 10:30 AM/12:00 PM, BTN Alternate


What I’m going to watch…

FRIDAY PRIMETIME

Louisville at #13 Syracuse
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

FRIDAY NIGHT

#23 Fresno St. at Boise St.
8:15/10:15 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

#10 Ohio St. at #18 Michigan St.
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

Wisconsin at #20 Penn St.
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC

South Carolina at #15 Florida
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#16 Mississippi St. at #1 Alabama 
1:30/3:30 PM, CBS

Northwestern at #21 Iowa
1:30/3:30 PM, FOX

Oregon at Utah
3:30/5:30 PM, PAC12

Virginia Tech at Pitt
1:30/3:30 PM, ESPNU

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#19 Texas at Texas Tech
5:30/7:30 PM, FOX

Miami at Georgia Tech
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

#24 Auburn at #5 Georgia
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY NIGHT

Cal at USC
8:30/10:30 PM, ESPN

Colorado St. at Nevada
8:30/10:30 PM, ESPNU

UNLV at San Diego St.
8:30/10:30 PM, ESPN2

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Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 11

Toomer’s Corner, Auburn, Alabama

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 1 9 1 +2
2 Georgia 4 1 6
3 Ohio St. 2 8 2 -2
4 Notre Dame 7 2 4
5 Penn St. 10 5 3
6 Washington 3 11 5  +1
7 Clemson 12 3 7  -1
8 TCU 8 6 11 +1
9 Oklahoma 14 4 9 -1
10 Auburn 9 8 10 +2
11 UCF 5 7 19 +2
12 Wisconsin 6 16 10  -2
13 Miami 11 13 13 +1
14 Oklahoma St. 13 15 12 -3
15 USC 17 17 16  N/A

Dropped from rankings: Virginia Tech

WEEK 10 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 9-6 .600 0-2 .000
Overall 73-49 .598 9-15 .375

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#1 GEORGIA at #10 Auburn
Sat., Nov. 11, 1:30/3:30 PM, CBS

FOUR-STAR GAMES

#3 NOTRE DAME at #7 Miami
Sat., Nov. 11, 6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

#6 TCU* at #5 Oklahoma
Sat., Nov. 11, 6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

THREE-STAR GAMES

#15 OKLAHOMA ST. at #21 Iowa St.
Sat., Nov. 11, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC / ESPN2

WAKE FOREST* at Syracuse
Sat., Nov. 11, 1:00 PM/3:00 PM, FSN/ACCV

#9 WASHINGTON at Stanford
Fri., Nov. 10, 8:30/10:30 PM, FS1

#17 VIRGINIA TECH at Georgia Tech
Sat., Nov. 11, 10:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

#19 WASHINGTON ST. at Utah
Sat., Nov. 11, 3:30/5:30 PM, PAC12

#23 NC State at BOSTON COLLEGE*
Sat., Nov. 11, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2 / ABC

#2 ALABAMA at #16 Mississippi St.
Sat., Nov. 11, 5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

#20 Iowa at #8 WISCONSIN
Sat., Nov. 11, 1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

WEST VIRGINIA* at K-State
Sat., Nov. 11, 1:30/3:30 PM, ESPN2

#12 Michigan St. at #13 OHIO ST.
Sat., Nov. 11, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

North Carolina at Pitt
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPN

Georgia Southern at Appalachian St.
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPNU

Ball St. at Northern Illinois
5:00/7:00 PM, CBSSN

FRIDAY

Temple at Cincinnati
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

#9 Washington at Stanford
8:30/10:30 PM, FS1

BYU at UNLV
8:30/10:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

#15 Oklahoma St. at #21 Iowa St.
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC / ESPN2

#17 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
10:20 AM/12:20 PM, ACCN

#23 NC State at Boston College
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2 / ABC

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn
1:30/3:30 PM, CBS

Wake Forest at Syracuse 
1:00/3:00 PM, FSN/ACCV

#20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin
1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

EDIT: My heart says to watch Iowa vs. Wisconsin over Wake vs. Syracuse, but I’m just going to leave it the way the numbers called it.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

#19 Washington St. at Utah
3:30/5:30 PM, PAC12

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami
6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma
6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi St.
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY NIGHT

Arizona St. at UCLA
7:30/9:30 PM, PAC12

Boise St. at Colorado St.
8:30/10:30 PM, CBSSN

Wyoming at Air Force
8:15/10:15 PM, ESPNU

Early Week #MACtion Viewing Guide – College Football Week 11

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

What I’m going to watch…

TUESDAY

Akron at Miami (OH)
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPN2

Bowling Green at Buffalo
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPNU

WEDNESDAY

TOLEDO at Ohio
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
6:00/8:00 PM, ESPNU

I would normally list the third option of the evening here, but I can’t in good conscience recommend in any way that anyone watch Kent St. play football this season.

What to Watch – Week 11: The Best of This Week’s College Football Games

Kyle Field

Kyle Field

Apologies to the Tuesday and Wednesday night MAC teams for their exclusion from this week’s post.

With A&M’s and Ole Miss’ QBs being out, I deducted 10% from each teams’ ratings. That may not have been enough; it may have been too much. I have no idea how good their backups are. Even with the deduction, the Formula still picked that game as the only four-star game and the game of the week.

The games are ranked using a zero- to five-star scale. Five stars meaning that you should make every human effort possible aside from committing a crime to watch this game (it’s time your children learned to feed themselves) and zero stars meaning you probably shouldn’t waste your time.

See the second half of the post for this week’s viewing guide.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, ESPN’s, and Ed Feng’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-2 .778 0-1 .000
Overall 90-36 .714 16-11 .593

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

Ole Miss at #8 TEXAS A&M
Sat., Nov. 12, 5:30 PM, SECN
Upset Alert / Overtime Watch
Note: a composite ranking using the four systems mentioned above puts Ole Miss tied for (14) and Texas A&M at (10)

THREE-STAR GAMES

#20 USC at #4 WASHINGTON
Sat., Nov. 12, 5:30 PM, FOX
Composite advanced stats top 25: (14-T) USC vs. (6) Washington

SOUTH FLORIDA at Memphis
Sat., Nov. 12, 5:00 PM, ESPNU
Overtime Watch

#16 WEST VIRGINIA** at Texas
Sat., Nov. 12, 10:00 AM, FS1
Composite advanced stats top 25: (24) West Virginia

Minnesota at #19 NEBRASKA
Sat., Nov. 12, 5:30 PM, BTN
Upset Alert
Composite advanced stats top 25: Nebraska unranked

Baylor at #11 OKLAHOMA
Sat., Nov. 12, 10:00 AM, ABC or ESPN2
Composite advanced stats top 25: (14-T) Oklahoma

Appalachian St. at TROY
Sat., Nov. 12, 1:30 PM, ESPN3 (streaming)
Overtime Watch

STANFORD at Oregon
Sat., Nov. 12, 2:00 PM, PAC12

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking


VIEWING GUIDE

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the games that are projected to be the most fun to watch. All times AZ.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

#17 North Carolina at Duke
5:30 PM, ESPN

Louisiana-Lafayette at Georgia Southern
5:30 PM, ESPNU
Toilet Bowl

THURSDAY NIGHT

#15 Utah at Arizona St.
7:30 PM, FS1

FRIDAY

Boston College at #18 Florida St.
5:30 PM, ESPN2
Blowout Warning

SATURDAY MORNING

#16 West Virginia at Texas 
10:00 AM, FS1

Baylor at #11 Oklahoma
10:00 AM, ABC or ESPN2

Tulsa at Navy
10:00 AM, CBSSN
Overtime Watch

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Appalachian St. at Troy
1:30 PM, ESPN3 (streaming)
Overtime Watch

Texas Tech at #13 Oklahoma St.
1:30 PM, FS1

Stanford at Oregon
2:00 PM, PAC12

SATURDAY EVENING

Ole Miss at #8 Texas A&M 
5:30 PM, SECN
Game of the Week / Upset Alert / Overtime Watch

#20 USC at #4 Washington 
5:30 PM, FOX

South Florida at Memphis 
5:00 PM, ESPNU
Overtime Watch

SATURDAY NIGHT

Colorado St. at Air Force 
8:15 PM, ESPNU

Cal at #23 Washington St.
8:30 PM, ESPN

#12 Colorado at Arizona
8:00 PM, FS1

College Football Week 11 Superlatives

Here are some of the projected best and worst of the upcoming slate of games.

Games of the Week

Power 5 #12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor
Group of 5 #21 Memphis at #24 Houston

Upset Specials

Games with a ranked team most likely to be upset
#12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor
#21 Memphis at #24 Houston

Best Games Featuring Two Un-Ranked Teams

Power 5 Group of 5
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Georgia at Auburn Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan
Pitt at Duke Utah St. at Air Force
K-State at Texas Tech
Washington at Arizona St.

Overtime Bowls

Most likely to go into overtime / Best Match-Up
Power 5 #12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor
Group of 5 #21 Memphis at #24 Houston

Blowout Bowls

Most likely to have a huge margin of victory / Worst Match-Up
Power 5 #15 TCU over Kansas
Group of 5 #20 Navy over SMU

Toilet Bowls

Worst combined ratings of the two teams
Power 5 Nebraska at Rutgers
Group of 5 UTEP at Old Dominion

Plan Accordingly: Week 11 College Football Viewing Guide

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the highest projected “watchability.” All times AZ.

Thursday

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech 5:30 PM ESPN
Louisiana-Lafayette at South Alabama 5:30 PM ESPNU

Friday

USC at Colorado 7:00 PM ESPN2

Saturday Morning

NC State at #16 Florida St. 10:30 AM ESPN3 (streaming)
Georgia at Auburn 10:00 AM CBS
Pitt at Duke 10:00 AM ESPNEWS

Saturday Midday

#2 Alabama at #17 Mississippi St. 1:30 PM CBS
Kansas St. at Texas Tech 1:30 PM FS1
Washington at Arizona St. 1:00 PM PAC12

Saturday Evening

#12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor – Game of the Week / Power 5 Overtime Bowl / Upset Special 6:00 PM ABC
#21 Memphis at #24 Houston – Group of 5 Game of the Week and Overtime Bowl / Upset Special 5:00 PM ESPN2
Arkansas at #9 LSU 5:15 PM ESPN

Saturday Night

Washington St. at #19 UCLA 8:45 PM ESPN
#10 Utah at Arizona 8:00 PM FS1
Oregon St. at Cal 8:30 PM PAC12

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 11

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

The percentages below are projected “watchability” percentage scores. This is the likelihood that the game will be “good.” Five-star games will have a percentage of 90% or greater, four-star will be 75-89%, and three-stars will be 55-74%.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 6-7 .462 0-1 .000
Overall 72-43 .626 9-13 .409

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor 93% Sat. 6:00 PM ABC OU*

4-Star Game

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#2 Alabama at #17 Mississippi St. 78% Sat. 1:30 PM CBS BAMA

3-Star Games

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#21 Memphis at #24 Houston 74% Sat. 5:00 PM ESPN2 MEM
NC State at #16 Florida St. 72% Sat. 10:30 AM ESPN3 (streaming) FSU
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech 70% Thu. 5:30 PM ESPN GT
Arkansas at #9 LSU 67% Sat. 5:15 PM ESPN LSU
Georgia at Auburn 67% Sat. 10:00 AM CBS UGA*
Pittsburgh at Duke 67% Sat. 10:00 AM ESPNEWS DUKE
Kansas St. at Texas Tech 64% Sat. 1:30 PM FS1 TTU
Washington St. at #19 UCLA 59% Sat. 8:45 PM ESPN WSU*
Washington at Arizona St. 59% Sat. 1:00 PM PAC12 UW
Oregon at #7 Stanford 59% Sat. 5:30 PM FOX STAN
Toledo vs. Central Michigan
58% Tue. 6:00 PM ESPN2 TOL
BYU vs. Missouri 58% Sat. 5:30 PM SECN BYU
Miami at #23 North Carolina 56% Sat. 1:30 PM ESPNU UNC

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking