Tag Archives: college football week 9

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 9

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL

Advanced Stats Weighted Composite Rankings

RK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI CHG
1 Alabama 1 2 1
2 Clemson 2 1 2
3 Georgia 5 4 3 +2
4 Oklahoma 3 5 5
5 Michigan 4 6 4 +1
6 Washington 6 7 8 +2
7 Notre Dame 7 10 9 +3
8 LSU 15 3 10 -1
9 Ohio St. 8 18 6 -6
10 Florida 14 9 11 +1
11 Penn St. 10 19 7 -2
12 Iowa 21 12 12 +1
13 Mississippi St. 20 13 13 -1
14 Fresno St. 12 9 16 +3
15 Miami 16 20 15 -1
Others: #16 Auburn, #17 Utah, #18 Purdue, #19 Kentucky, #20 Texas A&M, #21 Wisconsin, #22 West Virginia, #23 Missouri, #24 Washington St., #25 UCF

MOST OVER-RATED TEAMS BY AP POLL

  1. #21 South Florida (46 spots)
  2. #6 Texas (24 spots)
  3. #19 Oregon (16 spots)
  4. #10 UCF (15 spots)
  5. #14 Washington St. (10 spots)

MOST UNDER-RATED TEAMS BY AP POLL

  1. #15 Washington (9 spots)
  2. #23 Utah (6 spots)
  3. #18 Iowa (6 spots)
  4. #17 Penn St. (6 spots)
  5. #8 Oklahoma, #7 Georgia (4 spots)

BEST TEAMS LEFT OFF AP POLL

  1. Mississippi St.
  2. Fresno St.
  3. Miami
  4. Auburn
  5. Purdue
  6. Missouri

UPSET WATCH

  • #21 South Florida at Houston
  • #12 Kentucky at Missouri
  • #16 Texas A&M at Mississippi St.
  • #14 Washington St. at #24 Stanford
  • #22 NC State at Syracuse

Times AZ and Eastern. Rankings below are AP until CFP rankings are available.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#9 Florida vs. #7 Georgia (in Jacksonville)
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, CBS

OTHER FOUR-STAR GAMES

#16 Texas A&M at Mississippi St.
Saturday, 4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

#18 Iowa at #17 Penn St.
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, ESPN

Purdue at Michigan St.
Saturday, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

#14 Washington St. at #24 Stanford
Saturday, 4:00/7:00 PM, PAC12

Texas Tech at Iowa St.
Saturday, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

#22 NC State at Syracuse
Saturday, 4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

#12 Kentucky at Missouri
Saturday, 1:00/4:00 PM, SECN

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
Thursday, 4:30/7:30 PM, ESPN

THREE-STAR GAMES

#6 Texas at Oklahoma St.
Saturday, 5:00/8:00 PM, ABC

Miami at Boston College
Friday, 4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

Arizona St. at USC
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, ABC / ESPN2

#20 Wisconsin at Northwestern
Saturday, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

#21 South Florida at Houston
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, ABC / ESPN2

Indiana at Minnesota
Friday, 5:00/8:00 PM, FS1

Tennessee at South Carolina
Saturday, 4:30/7:30 PM, SECN

Duke at Pitt
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, FSN

Army at Eastern Michigan
Saturday, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, CBSSN

Baylor at #13 West Virginia
Thursday, 4:00/7:00 PM, FS1

#19 Oregon at Arizona
Saturday, 7:30/10:30 PM, ESPN


What I’m going to watch…

FRIDAY PRIMETIME

Miami at Boston College
4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

Indiana at Minnesota
5:00/8:00 PM, FS1

Louisiana Tech at Florida Atlantic
3:30/6:30 PM, CBSSN

FRIDAY NIGHT

#23 Utah at UCLA
7:30/10:30 PM, ESPN

Wyoming at Colorado St.
7:00/10:00 PM, CBSSN

SATURDAY MORNING

Purdue at Michigan St.
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

Texas Tech at Iowa St.
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

#20 Wisconsin at Northwestern
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, FOX

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Arizona St. at USC 
12:30/3:30 PM, ABC / ESPN2

#9 Florida vs. #7 Georgia (in Jacksonville)
12:30/3:30 PM, CBS

#18 Iowa at #17 Penn St.
12:30/3:30 PM, ESPN

#12 Kentucky at Missouri
1:00/4:00 PM, SECN

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#16 Texas A&M at Mississippi St.
4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

#14 Washington St. at #24 Stanford
4:00/7:00 PM, PAC12

#22 NC State at Syracuse
4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

#6 Texas at Oklahoma St.
5:00/8:00 PM, ABC

SATURDAY NIGHT

#19 Oregon at Arizona
7:30/10:30 PM, ESPN

San Diego St. at Nevada
7:30/10:30 PM, ESPNU

Hawai’i at Fresno St.
7:30/10:30 PM, ESPN2

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Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 9

Ohio Stadium aka “The Shoe”

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 2 5 1 +1
2 Ohio St. 1 6 2 -1
3 Penn St. 3 7 3
4 Georgia 4 1 8
5 Notre Dame 10 3 5 +5
6 Clemson 13 2 4 -1
7 Washington 5 9 6
8 TCU 6 4 12 +1
9 Oklahoma 14 8 7 -3
10 Oklahoma St. 8 12 11 -2
11 Wisconsin 7 15 10
12 Auburn 12 13 9 +2
13 Miami 11 10 14 -1
14 UCF 9 11 19 -1
15 Stanford 16 18 13

WEEK 8 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-4 .636 2-2 .500
Overall 57-35 .620 8-12 .400

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#2 Penn St. at #6 OHIO ST.*
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:30 PM, FOX

FOUR-STAR GAMES

LOUISVILLE at Wake Forest
Sat., Oct. 28, 9:20 AM, ACCN

#4 TCU at #25 Iowa St.
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:30 PM, ESPN2 (ABC)

#15 WASHINGTON ST. at Arizona
Sat., Oct. 28, 6:30 PM, PAC12

THREE-STAR GAMES

#14 NC State at #9 NOTRE DAME
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:30 PM, NBC

MISSISSIPPI ST. at Texas A&M
Sat., Oct. 28, 4:15 PM, ESPN

#21 USC at ARIZONA ST.*
Sat., Oct. 28, 7:45 PM, ESPN

UTAH at Oregon
Sat., Oct. 28, 2:45 PM, PAC12

Georgia Tech at #7 CLEMSON
Sat., Oct. 28, 5:00 PM, ESPN2 (ABC)

#11 OKLAHOMA ST. at #22 West Virginia
Sat., Oct. 28, 9:00 AM, ABC

Houston at #17 SOUTH FLORIDA
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:45 PM, ESPNU

#16 MICHIGAN ST. at Northwestern
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:30 PM, ESPN

Texas Tech at #10 OKLAHOMA
Sat., Oct. 28, 5:00 PM, ABC (ESPN2)

Minnesota at IOWA
Sat., Oct. 28, 3:30 PM, FS1

FLORIDA ST. at Boston College
Fri., Oct. 27, 5:00 PM, ESPN

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois
4:00 PM, CBSSN

South Alabama at Georgia St.
4:30 PM, ESPNU

#20 Stanford at Oregon St.
6:00 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY

Florida St. at Boston College
5:00 PM, ESPN

Tulane at #24 Memphis
5:00 PM, CBSSN

Tulsa at SMU
6:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

Louisville at Wake Forest
9:20 AM, ACCN

#11 Oklahoma St. at #22 West Virginia
9:00 AM, ABC

Rutgers at Michigan
9:00 AM, BTN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#2 Penn St. at #6 Ohio St.
12:30 PM, FOX

#4 TCU at #25 Iowa St. 
12:30 PM, ESPN2 (ABC)

#14 NC State at #9 Notre Dame
12:30 PM, NBC

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

Utah at Oregon
2:45 PM, PAC12

Minnesota at Iowa 
3:30 PM, FS1

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Mississippi St. at Texas A&M
4:15 PM, ESPN

Georgia Tech at #7 Clemson
5:00 PM, ESPN2 (ABC)

Texas Tech at #10 Oklahoma
5:00 PM, ABC (ESPN2)

SATURDAY NIGHT

#21 USC at Arizona St.
7:45 PM, ESPN

#15 Washington St. at Arizona
6:30 PM, PAC12

Boise St. at Utah St.
7:00 PM, CBSSN

What to Watch – Week 9: The Best of This Week’s College Football Games

Vaught-Hemingway stadium

Vaught-Hemingway stadium

The games are ranked using a zero- to five-star scale. Five stars meaning that you should make every human effort possible aside from committing a crime to watch this game (it’s time your children learned to feed themselves) and zero stars meaning you probably shouldn’t waste your time.

See the second half of the post for this week’s viewing guide.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, ESPN’s, and Ed Feng’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 10-4 .714 3-3 .500
Overall 77-29 .726 14-9 .609

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#15 AUBURN at Ole Miss
Sat., Oct. 29, 4:15 PM, SECN
Upset Alert
Note: a composite ranking using the four systems mentioned above puts Auburn at (12) and Ole Miss at (11)

THREE-STAR GAMES

#7 Nebraska at #11 WISCONSIN**
Sat., Oct. 29, 4:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert
Composite computer top 25: (17) Nebraska vs. (9) Wisconsin

UPDATE: Switched my pick to Pitt.

#25 Virginia Tech at PITT*
Thu., Oct. 27, 4:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert / Overtime Watch

#3 CLEMSON at #12 Florida St.
Sat., Oct. 29, 5:00 PM, ABC

Texas Tech at TCU
Sat., Oct. 29, 12:30 PM, ESPN2

#10 WEST VIRGINIA at Oklahoma St.
Sat., Oct. 29, 9:00 AM, FOX
Upset Alert
Composite computer top 25: (24) West Virginia

#22 Navy at SOUTH FLORIDA**
Fri., Oct. 28, 4:00 PM, ESPN2
G5 Game of the Week / Upset Alert
Composite computer top 25: Navy unranked

MIAMI at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 29, 12:30 PM, NBC

Cal at USC
Thu., Oct. 27, 7:30 PM, ESPN
Composite computer top 25: (19) USC

Duke at GEORGIA TECH
Sat., Oct. 29, 9:00 AM, WatchESPN (streaming)

#8 BAYLOR at Texas
Sat., Oct. 29, 12:30 PM, ABC
Composite computer top 25: (14) Baylor

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking


VIEWING GUIDE

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the games that are projected to be the most fun to watch. All times AZ.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

#25 Virginia Tech at Pitt
4:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert / Overtime Watch

Appalachian St. at Georgia Southern
4:30 PM, ESPNU

Ohio at Toledo
4:30 PM, CBSSN

THURSDAY NIGHT

Cal at USC
7:30 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

#22 Navy at South Florida
4:00 PM, ESPN2
G5 Game of the Week / Upset Alert

San Diego St. at Utah St.
5:00 PM, CBSSN

FRIDAY NIGHT

Air Force at Fresno St.
7:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

#10 West Virginia at Oklahoma St. 
9:00 AM, FOX
Upset Alert

Duke at Georgia Tech
9:00 AM, WatchESPN (streaming)

UCF at Houston
9:00 AM, ESPNU

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Texas Tech at TCU
12:30 PM, ESPN2

Miami at Notre Dame
12:30 PM, NBC

#8 Baylor at Texas
12:30 PM, ABC

Maryland at Indiana 
12:30 PM, ESPNU

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

#15 Auburn at Ole Miss 
4:15 PM, SECN
Game of the Week / Upset Alert

#7 Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin 
4:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert

#3 Clemson at #12 Florida St. 
5:00 PM, ABC

SATURDAY NIGHT

Stanford at Arizona 
8:00 PM, FS1

Washington St. at Oregon St.
7:45 PM, ESPN2

UNLV at San Jose St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN
Toilet Bowl

College Football Week 9 Superlatives

Here are some of the projected best and worst of the upcoming slate of games.

Games of the Week

Power 5 West Virginia at #5 TCU
Group of 5 South Florida at Navy

Best Games Featuring Two Un-Ranked Teams

Power 5 Group of 5
Oregon at Arizona St. South Florida at Navy
Illinois at Penn St. San Diego St. at Colorado St.
Virginia Tech at Boston College East Carolina at UConn
USC at Cal

Overtime Bowls

Most likely to go into overtime / Best Match-Up
Power 5 Illinois at Penn St.
Group of 5 UMass at Ball St.

Blowout Bowls

Most likely to have a huge margin of victory / Worst Match-Up
Power 5 #14 Oklahoma over Kansas
Group of 5 Western Kentucky over Old Dominion

Toilet Bowls

Worst combined ratings of the two teams
Power 5 Texas at Iowa St.
Group of 5 Idaho at New Mexico St.

Plan Accordingly: Week 9 College Football Viewing Guide

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the highest projected “watchability.” All times AZ.

Thursday Afternoon

West Virginia at #5 TCU* 4:30 PM FS1
North Carolina at #23 Pitt 4:00 PM ESPN
Texas St at Georgia Southern 4:30 PM ESPNU

Thursday Night

Oregon at Arizona St. 7:30 PM ESPN

Friday Afternoon

East Carolina at UConn 4:00 PM ESPNU
Louisville at Wake Forest 4:00 PM ESPN2
Louisiana Tech at Rice 5:00 PM FS1

Friday Night

Wyoming at Utah St. 7:15 PM ESPN2

Saturday Morning

Illinois at Penn St.** 9:00 AM ESPN2
Virginia Tech at Boston College 9:30 AM ESPN3 (streaming)
#19 Ole Miss at Auburn 9:00 AM ESPN

Saturday Midday

#11 Florida vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) 12:30 PM CBS
USC at California 12:00 PM FOX
#3 Clemson at NC State 12:30 PM ABC

Saturday Afternoon

Miami at #22 Duke 4:00 PM ESPNU
#9 Notre Dame at #21 Temple 5:00 PM ABC
Vanderbilt at #18 Houston 4:00 PM ESPN2

Saturday Night

#8 Stanford at Washington St 7:30 PM ESPN
Arizona at Washington 8:00 PM FS1
Air Force at Hawai’i 7:30 PM CBSSN

*Game of the Week
**Power Five Overtime Bowl

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 9

On paper, this looks to be the weakest week of the year so far. There are no five- OR four-star games. That usually means we’ll see some wild upsets and finishes.

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

The percentages below are projected “watchability” percentage scores. This is the likelihood that the game will be “good.” Five-star games will have a percentage of 90% or greater, four-star will be 75-89%, and three-stars will be 55-74%.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 13-3 .813 3-1 .750
Overall 59-33 .641 9-11 .450

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
West Virginia at #5 TCU 73% Thu. 4:30 PM FS1 TCU

3-Star Games

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#11 Florida vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) 73% Sat. 12:30 PM CBS UF
North Carolina at #23 Pitt 71% Thu. 4:00 PM ESPN UNC**
USC at Cal 70% Sat. 12:00 PM FOX USC
Oregon at Arizona St. 67% Thu. 7:30 PM ESPN ASU
Illinois at Penn St. 67% Sat. 9:00 AM ESPN2 PSU
Virginia Tech at Boston College 61% Sat. 9:30 AM ESPN3 (Streaming) BC*
#12 Oklahoma St at Texas Tech 59% Sat. 12:30 PM ESPN OSU
#3 Clemson at NC State 56% Sat. 12:30 PM ABC Clemson
Miami at #22 Duke 56% Sat. 4:00 PM ESPNU Duke

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 9

Here’s what you need to watch this weekend. All times AZ. See below for a breakdown of the best games to watch by day and time slot.

Games of the Week

4-Star Games

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh Saturday 12:30 PM ESPNU
#15 Arizona at Washington St Saturday 3:00 PM PAC-12

3-Star Games

BYU at Boise St Friday 6:00 PM ESPN
Maryland at Wisconsin Saturday 9:00 AM BTN
#20 USC at #19 Utah Saturday 7:00 PM FS1

2-Star Games

Miami at Virginia Tech Thursday 5:00 PM ESPN
#3 Ole Miss at #24 LSU Saturday 4:15 PM ESPN

1-Star Games

Texas at #11 Kansas St Saturday 9:00 AM ESPN
Rutgers at #16 Nebraska Saturday 9:00 AM ESPN2
Oregon St at Stanford Saturday 12:30 PM ABC
#4 Alabama at Tennessee Saturday 4:30 PM ESPN2
South Carolina at #5 Auburn Saturday 4:30 PM SECN
#13 Ohio St at Penn St Saturday 5:00 PM ABC

Best Games to Watch by Day/Time

Thursday

Miami at Virginia Tech 5:00 PM ESPN

Friday

BYU at Boise St 6:00 PM ESPN

Saturday Morning

Maryland at Wisconsin 9:00 AM BTN
Texas at #11 Kansas St 9:00 AM ESPN

Saturday Lunchtime

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh 12:30 PM ESPNU
Oregon St at Stanford 12:30 PM ABC

Saturday Afternoon

#15 Arizona at Washington St 3:00 PM PAC-12
#3 Ole Miss at #24 LSU 4:15 PM ESPN

Saturday Night

#20 USC at #19 Utah 7:00 PM FS1