Tag Archives: week 14

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Championship Week

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Advanced Stats Weighted Composite Rankings

 

RK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI CHG
1 Alabama 1 1 1
2 Clemson 2 3 2
3 Georgia 3 2 3
4 Oklahoma 4 4 5 +1
5 Michigan 5 9 4 -1
6 Notre Dame 6 6 7
7 Ohio St. 8 7 6
8 Washington 9 8 10 +1
9 Penn St. 11 13 8 +2
10 Mississippi St. 12 11 9 -2
11 UCF 7 5 23 -1
12 Missouri 6 12 12 +5
13 LSU 15 10 16 -1
14 Florida 13 18 13 +4
15 West Virginia 21 15 11 -1
Others: #16 Fresno St., #17 Utah, #18 Iowa, #19 Washington St., #20 Auburn, #21 Texas A&M, #22 Boise St., #23 Utah St., #24 Miami, #25 Texas

MOST OVER-RATED TEAMS BY CFP POLL

  1. #21 Northwestern (26 spots)
  2. #20 Syracuse (18 spots)
  3. #15 Kentucky (13 spots)
  4. #23 Iowa St. (13 spots)
  5. #14 Texas (11 spots)

MOST UNDER-RATED TEAMS BY CFP POLL

  1. #24 Missouri (12 spots)
  2. #25 Fresno St. (9 spots)
  3. #18 Mississippi St. (8 spots)
  4. #12 Penn St. (3 spots)
  5. #11 Washington (3 spots)

BEST TEAMS LEFT OFF CFP POLL

  1. Iowa
  2. Auburn
  3. Utah St.
  4. Miami
  5. Michigan St.

UPSET WATCH

  • #22 Boise State vs. #25 Fresno State

Times AZ and Eastern. Rankings below are CFP.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

Pac-12 Championship Game: #17 Utah vs. #11 Washington
Friday, 6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

OTHER FOUR-STAR GAMES

SEC Championship Game: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Georgia
Saturday, 2:00/4:00 PM, CBS

Mountain West Championship Game: #22 Boise St. vs. #25 Fresno St.
Saturday, 5:45/7:45 PM, ESPN

Big 12 Championship Game: #5 Oklahoma vs. #14 Texas
Saturday, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC

THREE-STAR GAMES

Stanford at Cal
Saturday, 1:00/3:00 PM, PAC12

American Conference Championship Game: Memphis vs. #8 UCF
Saturday, 1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

MAC Championship Game: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois
Friday, 5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

Conference USA Championship Game: Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
Saturday, 11:30 AM/1:30 PM, CBSSN


What I’m going to watch…

FRIDAY

Pac-12 Championship Game: #17 Utah vs. #11 Washington
6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

MAC Championship Game: Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois
5:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

Big 12 Championship Game: #5 Oklahoma vs. #14 Texas
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC

Conference USA Championship Game: Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
11:30 AM/1:30 PM, CBSSN

Marshall at Virginia Tech
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, WatchESPN (streaming)

Sun Belt Championship Game: Appalachian St. vs. Louisiana
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

SEC Championship Game: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Georgia 
2:00/4:00 PM, CBS

Stanford at Cal
1:00/3:00 PM, PAC12

American Conference Championship Game: Memphis vs. #8 UCF
1:30/3:30 PM, ABC

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Mountain West Championship Game: #22 Boise St. vs. #25 Fresno St.
5:45/7:45 PM, ESPN

Big Ten Championship Game: #21 Northwestern vs. #6 Ohio St.
6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

ACC Championship Game: #2 Clemson vs. Pitt
6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

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Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 14 – Championship Week

Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

Advanced Stats Weighted Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 2 5 1
2 Ohio St. 1 9 2 +3
3 Georgia 4 4 6 -1
4 Auburn 7 2 5 -1
5 Clemson 10 1 4 -1
6 Penn St. 6 8 3 +2
7 Wisconsin 3 6 8 -1
8 Washington 5 7 7 +2
9 Oklahoma 9 3 9 -2
10 Notre Dame 14 11 10 +1
11 Miami 12 10 14 -1
12 TCU 13 13 11
13 Oklahoma St. 11 15 13 +1
14 UCF 8 12 20 -1
15 Stanford 27 14 12 N/A

WEEK 13 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 11-7 .611 3-2 .600
Overall 98-66 .598 15-19 .441

Times AZ and Eastern. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

SEC Championship Game: #2 Auburn vs. #6 GEORGIA*
Sat., Dec. 2, 2:00/4:00 PM, CBS

FIVE-STAR GAME

Big Ten Championship Game: #8 OHIO ST.* vs. #4 Wisconsin
Sat., Dec. 2, 6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

FOUR-STAR GAMES

Big 12 Championship Game: #3 OKLAHOMA vs. #11 TCU
Sat., Dec. 2, 10:30 AM/12:30 PM, FOX

Pac-12 Championship Game: #12 Stanford vs. #10 USC
Fri., Dec. 1, 6:00/8:00 PM, ESPN

ACC Championship Game: #1 CLEMSON vs. #7 Miami
Sat., Dec. 2, 6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

THREE-STAR GAMES

American Championship Game: #20 Memphis at #14 UCF
Sat., Dec. 2, 10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC

Troy at ARKANSAS ST.
Sat., Dec. 2, 5:30/7:30 PM, ESPN2

Mountain West Championship Game: #25 Fresno St. at BOISE ST.*
Sat., Dec. 2, 5:45/7:45 PM, ESPN

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

FRIDAY

Pac-12 Championship Game: #12 Stanford vs. #10 USC
6:00/8:00 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY MORNING

Big 12 Championship Game: #3 Oklahoma vs. #11 TCU
10:30 AM/12:30 PM, FOX

American Championship Game: #20 Memphis at #14 UCF
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC

Conference USA Championship Game: North Texas at Florida Atlantic
10:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MIDDAY

SEC Championship Game: #2 Auburn vs. #6 Georgia
2:00/4:00 PM, CBS

South Alabama at New Mexico St.
2:30/4:30 PM, ESPN3

Louisiana at Appalachian St.
12:30/2:30 PM, ESPN3

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Big Ten Championship Game: #8 Ohio St. vs. #4 Wisconsin
6:00/8:00 PM, FOX

ACC Championship Game: #1 Clemson vs. #7 Miami
6:00/8:00 PM, ABC

Troy at Arkansas St.
5:30/7:30 PM, ESPN2

 

What to Watch – Week 14: The Best of Championship Week’s College Football Games

Lucas Oil Stadium

Lucas Oil Stadium

The games are ranked using a zero- to five-star scale. Five stars meaning that you should make every human effort possible aside from committing a crime to watch this game (it’s time your children learned to feed themselves) and zero stars meaning you probably shouldn’t waste your time.

See the second half of the post for this week’s viewing guide.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, ESPN’s, and Ed Feng’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week N/A N/A N/A N/A
Overall 100-41 .709 17-13 .567

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

Big Ten Conference Championship Game: #7 Penn St. vs. #6 WISCONSIN
Sat., Dec. 3, 6:00 PM, FOX
Game of the Week / Overtime Watch

THREE-STAR GAMES

PAC-12 Championship Game: #8 Colorado vs. #4 WASHINGTON
Fri., Dec. 2, 7:30 7:00 PM, FOX

#10 Oklahoma St. at #9 OKLAHOMA
Sat., Dec. 3, 10:30 AM, FOX

American Conference Championship Game: TEMPLE* at #19 Navy
Sat., Dec. 3, 10:00 AM, ABC

K-State at TCU
Sat., Dec. 3, 10:00 FS1

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking


VIEWING GUIDE

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the games that are projected to be the most fun to watch. All times AZ.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

MAC Championship Game: Ohio vs. #17 Western Michigan
5:00 PM, ESPN2
Blowout Warning

FRIDAY NIGHT

PAC-12 Championship Game: #8 Colorado vs. #4 Washington
7:30 7:00 PM, FOX

SATURDAY MORNING

#10 Oklahoma St. at #9 Oklahoma
10:30 AM, FOX

American Conference Championship Game: Temple at #19 Navy
10:00 AM, ABC
G5 Game of the Week / Upset Alert / Overtime Watch

K-State at TCU
10:00 AM, FS1
Overtime Watch

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Baylor at West Virginia
1:30 PM, FS1

SEC Championshop Game: #1 Alabama vs. #15 Florida
2:00 PM, CBS
Blowout Warning

Georgia St. at Idaho
3:00 PM, ESPN3 (streaming)
Toilet Bowl

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Big Ten Conference Championship Game: #7 Penn St. vs. #6 Wisconsin 
6:00 PM, FOX
Game of the Week / Overtime Watch

ACC Championship Game: #3 Clemson vs. #23 Virginia Tech 
6:00 PM, ABC

Mountain West Conference Championship Game: San Diego St. vs. Wyoming 
5:45 PM, ESPN

Plan Accordingly: Week 14 College Football Viewing Guide

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the highest projected “watchability.” All times AZ.

FRIDAY

MAC Championship: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois (in Detroit)
6:00 PM, ESPN2 (WatchESPN)

SATURDAY MORNING

American Championship: #22 Temple at #19 Houston
10:00 AM, ABC (WatchESPN)
G5 Game of the Week

Conference USA Championship: Southern Miss at Western Kentucky
10:00 AM, ESPN2 (WatchESPN)

Texas at #12 Baylor
10:00 AM, ESPN (WatchESPN)

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

SEC Championship: #2 Alabama vs. #18 Florida (in Atlanta)
2:00 PM, CBS (CBSSports.com)

West Virginia at K-State
2:30 PM, FS1 (FOX Sports GO)

Troy at Louisiana
3:00 PM, ESPN3/WatchESPN (Streaming Only)

SATURDAY NIGHT

Pac-12 Conference Championship: #7 Stanford vs. #20 USC (in Santa Clara)
5:45 PM, ESPN (WatchESPN)
Overtime Bowl

ACC Championship: #1 Clemson vs. #10 North Carolina (in Charlotte)
6:00 PM, ABC (WatchESPN)

Big Ten Championship: #4 Iowa vs. #5 Michigan St. (in Indianapolis)
6:00 PM, FOX (FOX Sports GO)
Upset Special

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 14

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 18-6 .750 2-2 .500
Overall 109-66 .623 15-17 .469

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Pac-12 Conference Championship: #7 STANFORD vs. #20 USC (in Santa Clara)
Saturday, 5:45 PM, ESPN (WatchESPN)
Overtime Bowl

THREE-STAR GAMES

ACC Championship: #1 CLEMSON vs. #10 North Carolina (in Charlotte)
Saturday, 6:00 PM, ABC (WatchESPN)

Big Ten Championship: #4 Iowa vs. #5 MICHIGAN ST.** (in Indianapolis)
Saturday, 6:00 PM, FOX (FOX Sports GO)
Upset Special

American Championship: #22 Temple at #19 HOUSTON
Saturday, 10:00 AM, ABC (WatchESPN)
G5 Game of the Week

SEC Championship: #2 ALABAMA vs. #18 Florida (in Atlanta)
Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS (CBSSports.com)

Mountain West Championship: Air Force at SAN DIEGO ST.
Saturday, 5:30 PM, ESPN2 (WatchESPN)
Overtime Bowl

MAC Championship: BOWLING GREEN vs. Northern Illinois (in Detroit)
Friday, 6:00 PM, ESPN2 (WatchESPN)

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 14 Picks

Last week‘s results: 37-16 (.698), upset picks: 3-5 (.375)
Overall: 468-176 (.727), upset picks: 27-47 (.365)

Upset Pick of the Week

#19 OLE MISS over #4 Mississippi St.

Upset Picks

#13 Arizona St. over #11 Arizona
ARKANSAS over #17 Missouri
NEBRASKA over Iowa
VIRGINIA TECH over Virginia
IDAHO over Appalachian St.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE over UTEP
HAWAI’I over Fresno St.

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in ITALICS. Non-ranked team upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this.

OHIO at Miami (OH)
#5 TCU at Texas
LSU at Texas A&M
Stanford at #8 UCLA
#13 ARIZONA ST. at #11 Arizona
ARKANSAS at #17 Missouri*
Western Kentucky at #24 MARSHALL
Northern Illinois at WESTERN MICHIGAN
NEBRASKA at Iowa
UCF at South Florida
HOUSTON at SMU
Ball St. at BOWLING GREEN
AKRON at Kent St.
BUFFALO at UMass
TOLEDO at Eastern Michigan
NAVY at South Alabama
COLORADO ST. at Air Force
Virginia at VIRGINIA TECH
EAST CAROLINA at Tulsa
#15 Auburn at #1 ALABAMA
#2 OREGON at Oregon St.
Florida at #3 FLORIDA ST.
#4 Mississippi St. at #19 OLE MISS
Michigan at #6 OHIO ST.
#7 BAYLOR vs. Texas Tech (Arlington)
#16 Georgia Tech at #9 GEORGIA
#10 MICHIGAN ST. at Penn St.
Kansas at #12 KANSAS ST.
#18 Minnesota at #14 WISCONSIN
South Carolina at #21 CLEMSON
Kentucky at #22 LOUISVILLE
Utah St. at #23 BOISE ST.
#25 UTAH at Colorado
CINCINNATI at Temple
Purdue at INDIANA
Illinois at NORTHWESTERN
Old Dominion at FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WEST VIRGINIA at Iowa St.
Rice at LOUISIANA TECH
North Texas at UTSA
NC State at NORTH CAROLINA
Syracuse at BOSTON COLLEGE
LOUISIANA at Troy
IDAHO at Appalachian St.
TEXAS ST. at Georgia St.
New Mexico St. at ARKANSAS ST.
Wyoming at NEW MEXICO
Notre Dame at USC
Rutgers at MARYLAND
UAB at Southern Miss
San Jose St. at SAN DIEGO ST.
TENNESSEE at Vanderbilt
UConn at MEMPHIS
BYU at CAL
Louisiana-Monroe at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at UTEP
Pitt at MIAMI
HAWAI’I at Fresno St.
Wake Forest at DUKE
WASHINGTON at Washington St.
NEVADA at UNLV

*Underdog despite higher ranking

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 14

Here’s what you need to watch this week(end). All times AZ.

Thursday

LSU at Texas A&M 5:30 PM ESPN
#5 TCU at Texas 5:30 PM FS1

Friday Morning

Nebraska at Iowa 10:00 AM ABC
Ball St. at Bowling Green 11:00 AM ESPN3 (streaming)

Friday Afternoon

#13 Arizona St. at #11 Arizona 1:30 PM FOX
Arkansas at #17 Missouri 12:30 PM CBS

Friday Night

Virginia at Virginia Tech 6:00 PM ESPN
East Carolina at Tulsa 6:30 PM ESPNU

Saturday Morning

#16 Georgia Tech at #9 Georgia 10:00 AM SECN
Cincinnati at Temple 10:00 AM ESPNEWS

Saturday Afternoon

#4 Mississippi St. at #19 Ole Miss 1:30 PM CBS
Notre Dame at USC 1:30 PM FOX

Saturday Night

#15 Auburn at #1 Alabama 5:45 PM ESPN / SECN
Pitt at Miami 5:00 PM ESPN2

Saturday Late

Utah St. at #23 Boise St. 8:15 PM ESPN2
Washington at Washington St. 8:30 PM FS1