Tag Archives: week 7

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 7

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Advanced Stats Weighted Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 1 3 1
2 Georgia 3 1 3 +1
3 Ohio St. 4 2 2 -1
4 Clemson 2 4 4
5 Oklahoma 6 8 7 +1
6 Washington 10 5 9 -1
7 Penn St. 7 13 5
8 Notre Dame 8 10 8
9 Michigan 5 16 6
10 Wisconsin 13 9 11 +2
11 Florida 14 11 10 +7
12 LSU 19 6 16 -1
13 West Virginia 11 17 14 +2
14 Mississippi St. 15 20 13 +7
15 Auburn 18 19 15 -5
Others: #16 Kentucky, #17 Miami, #18 Iowa, #19 Oklahoma St., #20 Michigan St., #21 Texas A&M, #22 Texas, #23 UCF, #24 NC State, #25 Texas Tech

MOST OVER-RATED TEAMS BY AP POLL

  1. #19 Colorado (28 spots)
  2. #23 South Florida (27 spots)
  3. #17 Oregon (24 spots)
  4. #25 Cincinnati (21 spots)
  5. #9 Texas (13 spots)

MOST UNDER-RATED TEAMS BY AP POLL

  1. #24 Mississippi St. (10 spots)
  2. #21 Auburn (6 spots)
  3. #11 Oklahoma (6 spots)
  4. #15 Wisconsin (5 spots)
  5. #14 Florida (3 spots)

BEST TEAMS LEFT OFF AP POLL

  1. Iowa
  2. Oklahoma St.
  3. Michigan St.
  4. Texas Tech

UPSET WATCH

  • #19 Colorado at USC

Times AZ and Eastern. Rankings below are AP until CFP rankings are available.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#15 Wisconsin at #12 Michigan
Saturday, 4:30/7:30 PM, ABC

OTHER FOUR-STAR GAMES

#2 Georgia at #13 LSU
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, CBS

#22 Texas A&M at South Carolina
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, SECN

Texas Tech at TCU
Thursday, 4:30/7:30 PM, ESPN

THREE-STAR GAMES

Michigan St. at #8 Penn St.
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, BTN

#19 Colorado at USC
Saturday, 7:30/10:30 PM, FS1

#6 West Virginia at Iowa St.
Saturday, 4:00/7:00 PM, FS1

Iowa at Indiana
Friday, 9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

#10 UCF at Memphis
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, ABC or ESPN2

Duke at Georgia Tech
Saturday, 9:20 AM/12:20 PM, KASW (Ch. 61) / ACCN / WatchESPN (streaming)

#7 Washington at #17 Oregon
Saturday, 12:30/3:30 PM, ABC or ESPN2

#16 Miami at Virginia
Saturday, 4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

Missouri at #1 Alabama
Saturday, 4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

Arizona at Utah
Friday, 7:00/10:00 PM, ESPN


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Texas Tech at TCU
4:30/7:30 PM, ESPN

Georgia Southern at Texas St.
4:30/7:30 PM, ESPNU

FRIDAY PRIME TIME

#23 South Florida at Tulsa
4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY NIGHT

Arizona at Utah
7:00/10:00 PM, ESPN

Air Force at San Diego St.
6:00/9:00 PM, CBSSN

SATURDAY MORNING

Iowa at Indiana
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN2

Duke at Georgia Tech
9:20 AM/12:20 PM, KASW (Ch. 61) / ACCN / WatchESPN (streaming)

#14 Florida at Vanderbilt
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ESPN

Nebraska at Northwestern
9:00 AM/12:00 PM, ABC

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#2 Georgia at #13 LSU 
12:30/3:30 PM, CBS

#22 Texas A&M at South Carolina
12:30/3:30 PM, SECN

Michigan St. at #8 Penn St.
12:30/3:30 PM, BTN

#10 UCF at Memphis
12:30/3:30 PM, ABC or ESPN2

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#15 Wisconsin at #12 Michigan
4:30/7:30 PM, ABC

#6 West Virginia at Iowa St.
4:00/7:00 PM, FS1

#16 Miami at Virginia
4:00/7:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY NIGHT

#19 Colorado at USC
7:30/10:30 PM, FS1

Wyoming at Fresno St.
7:30/10:30 PM, ESPNU

Boise St. at Nevada
7:30/10:30 PM, CBSSN

Hawai’i at BYU
7:15/10:15 PM, ESPN2

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Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 7

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 2 4 1 0
2 Ohio St. 1 6 2 0
3 Clemson 6 1 3 0
4 Georgia 5 3 7 +2
5 Penn St. 4 9 4 0
6 Oklahoma 8 5 6 -2
7 Washington 3 12 5 0
8 TCU 14 2 12 +2
9 Wisconsin 7 15 8 -1
10 Notre Dame 13 7 10 +2
11 Miami 11 8 13 N/A
12 Oklahoma St. 10 13 11 +1
13 Auburn 9 19 9 +1
14 USC 16 11 16 +1
15 Florida St. 12 21 14 -6

Dropped from rankings: Michigan

WEEK 6 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 5-6 .455 3-3 .500
Overall 43-25 .632 5-10 .333

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

Texas A&M at FLORIDA
Sat., Oct. 14, 4:00 PM, ESPN2

THREE-STAR GAMES

UCLA at Arizona
Sat., Oct. 14, 6:00 PM, PAC12

Oregon at #23 STANFORD
Sat., Oct. 14, 8:00 PM, FS1

#25 NAVY at Memphis
Sat., Oct. 14, 12:45 PM, ESPNU

#21 MICHIGAN ST. at Minnesota
Sat., Oct. 14, 5:00 PM, BTN

#24 TEXAS TECH at West Virginia
Sat., Oct. 14, 9:00 AM, ESPNU

#6 TCU at K-State
Sat., Oct. 14, 9:00 AM, FS1

#12 OKLAHOMA vs. Texas (in Dallas)
Sat., Oct. 14, 12:30 PM, ESPN

Georgia Tech at #11 MIAMI
Sat., Oct. 14, 12:30 PM, ABC

Boise St. at #19 SAN DIEGO ST.
Sat., Oct. 14, 7:30 PM, CBSSN

#10 AUBURN at LSU
Sat., Oct. 14, 12:30 PM, CBS

SOUTH CAROLINA* at Tennessee
Sat., Oct. 14, 9:00 AM, ESPN

#17 MICHIGAN at Indiana
Sat., Oct. 14, 9:00 AM, ABC

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Texas St. at Louisiana
4:30 PM, ESPNU

FRIDAY

#2 Clemson at Syracuse
4:00 PM, ESPN

#8 Washington St. at Cal
7:30 PM, ESPN

SATURDAY MORNING

#24 Texas Tech at West Virginia
9:00 AM, ESPNU

#6 TCU at K-State
9:00 AM, FS1

South Carolina at Tennessee
9:00 AM, ESPN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#25 Navy at Memphis
12:45 PM, ESPNU

#12 Oklahoma vs. Texas 
12:30 PM, ESPN

Georgia Tech at #11 Miami
12:30 PM, ABC

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Texas A&M at Florida
4:00 PM, ESPN2

#21 Michigan St. at Minnesota
5:00 PM, BTN

Utah at #13 USC
5:00 PM, ABC

SATURDAY NIGHT

#5 Washington at Arizona St.
7:45 PM, ESPN

UCLA at Arizona
6:00 PM, PAC12

Oregon at #23 Stanford
8:00 PM, FS1

Boise St. at #19 San Diego St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN

The Best College Football Games and Viewing Guide for Week 7

 

The games are ranked using a zero- to five-star scale. Five stars meaning that you should make every human effort possible aside from committing a crime to watch this game (it’s time your children learned to feed themselves) and zero stars meaning you probably shouldn’t waste your time.

See the second half of the post for this week’s viewing guide.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, ESPN’s, and Ed Feng’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 13-4 .765 3-0 1.000
Overall 57-22 .722 9-6 .600

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

Neyland Stadium

Neyland Stadium

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#1 ALABAMA at #9 Tennessee
Sat., Oct. 15, 12:30 PM, CBS

UCLA at WASHINGTON ST.
Sat., Oct. 15, 7:30 PM, ESPN
Overtime Watch

FOUR-STAR GAMES 

UCLA at WASHINGTON ST.
Sat., Oct. 15, 7:30 PM, ESPN
Overtime Watch

UPDATE: I was reminded this morning that the analytics don’t know or care that Josh Rosen may be injured. This game gets a four-star rating based on him playing at full-strength. Same goes for the ASU/Colorado game below and ASU’s QB situation.

THREE-STAR GAMES

STANFORD* at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 15, 4:30 PM, NBC

Arizona St. at COLORADO
Sat., Oct. 15, 5:00 PM, PAC12

#1 ALABAMA at #9 Tennessee
Sat., Oct. 15, 12:30 PM, CBS

North Carolina at #16 MIAMI
Sat., Oct. 15, 12:30 PM, ESPN2

NORTHWESTERN* at Michigan St.
Sat., Oct. 15, 12:30 PM, BTN
Overtime Watch

#20 WEST VIRGINIA at Texas Tech
Sat., Oct. 15, 9:00 AM, FS1
Upset Alert

#2 OHIO ST. at #8 Wisconsin
Sat., Oct. 15, 5:00 PM, ABC

Mississippi St. at BYU
Fri., Oct. 14, 7:15 PM, ESPN
P5/G5 Showdown

K-State at #19 OKLAHOMA
Sat., Oct. 15, 9:00 AM, ESPN

Minnesota at MARYLAND
Sat., Oct. 15, 9:00 AM, ESPNU

USC at Arizona
Sat., Oct. 15, 12:30 PM, FOX

#12 OLE MISS at #22 Arkansas
Sat., Oct. 15, 4:00 PM, ESPN

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking


VIEWING GUIDE

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the games that are projected to be the most fun to watch. All times AZ.

WEDNESDAY

Appalachian St. at Louisiana-Lafayette
5:00 PM, ESPN2

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

Memphis at Tulane
5:00 PM, ESPNU

Duke at #7 Louisville
4:00 PM, ESPN
Blowout Warning

FRIDAY NIGHT

Mississippi St. at BYU
7:15 PM, ESPN
P5/G5 Showdown

San Diego St. at Fresno St.
7:00 PM, CBSSN
Blowout Warning

SATURDAY MORNING

#20 West Virginia at Texas Tech 
9:00 AM, FS1
Upset Alert

K-State at #19 Oklahoma
9:00 AM, ESPN

Minnesota at Maryland
9:00 AM, ESPNU

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#1 Alabama at #9 Tennessee
12:30 PM, CBS
Game of the Week

North Carolina at #16 Miami
12:30 PM, ESPN2

USC at Arizona
12:30 PM, FOX

Northwestern at Michigan St. 
12:30 PM, BTN
Overtime Watch

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

Stanford at Notre Dame 
4:30 PM, NBC

Arizona St. at Colorado 
5:00 PM, PAC12

#2 Ohio St. at #8 Wisconsin 
5:00 PM, ABC

SATURDAY NIGHT

UCLA at Washington St.
7:30 PM, ESPN
Game of the Week / Overtime Watch

Nevada at San Jose St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN
Toilet Bowl

Colorado St. at #15 Boise St.
7:15 PM, ESPN2
Blowout Warning

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 7

UPDATE: I included the projected “watchability” percentage scores. This is the likelihood that the game will be “good.” Five-star games will have a percentage of 90% or greater, four-star will be 75-89%, and three-stars will be 55-74%.

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

Last week’s picks: 8-1 (.889); Upset picks: 1-0 (1.000)

Overall: 37-22 (.627); Upsets: 6-6 (.500)

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
USC at #14 Notre Dame 90% Sat. 4:30 PM NBC USC*

4-Star Games

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#10 Alabama at #9 Texas A&M 84% Sat. 12:30 PM CBS Bama
#18 UCLA at #15 Stanford 82% Thu. 7:30 PM ESPN Stanford
#8 Florida at #6 LSU 80% Sat. 4:00 PM ESPN LSU
#7 Michigan St. at #12 Michigan 77% Sat. 12:30 PM ESPN Michigan**
#19 Oklahoma at K-State 76% Sat. 12:30 PM ABC OU

3-Star Games

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#17 Iowa at #20 Northwestern 74% Sat. 9:00 PM ESPN2 Northwestern*
Louisville at #11 Florida St. 73% Sat. 9:00 PM ESPN FSU
Arizona St. at #4 Utah 72% Sat. 7:00 PM ESPN ASU*
Virginia Tech at Miami 70% Sat. 12:30 PM ESPNU Miami
Pitt at Georgia Tech 68% Sat. 9:30 PM ESPN+ / ESPN3 GT
Oregon at Washington 68% Sat. 7:30 PM ESPN2 U-Dub
Vanderbilt at South Carolina 60% Sat. 1:00 PM SECN Vandy*
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi St. 59% Sat. 9:00 AM SECN MSU
Nebraska at Minnesota 58% Sat. 12:30 PM ESPN2 Minnesota
Auburn at Kentucky 58% Thu. 4:00 PM ESPN Auburn
West Virginia at #2 Baylor 57% Sat. 9:00 AM FOX Baylor

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking

Mississippi-7624 by CJ Anderson

Plan Accordingly: What to Watch – Week 7

Here’s what you need to watch this weekend. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Another SEC West game is the game of the week. Weird.

#2 Auburn at #3 Mississippi St Saturday 12:30 PM CBS

4-Star Games

#12 Oregon at #18 UCLA Saturday 12:30 PM FOX
#9 TCU at #6 Baylor Saturday 12:30 PM ABC

3-Star Games

Washington St at #25 Stanford Friday 6:00 PM ESPN
#13 Georgia at #23 Missouri Saturday 9:00 AM CBS
Louisville at Clemson Saturday 12:30 ESPNU
#3 Ole Miss at #14 Texas A&M Saturday 6:00 PM ESPN

2-Star Games

LSU at Florida Saturday 4:30 PM SECN

1-Star Games

#7 Alabama vs Arkansas Saturday 3:00 PM ESPN
USC at #10 Arizona Saturday 7:30 PM ESPN2

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 7 Picks

Last week’s results: 39-17 (.696), upset picks: 2-1 (.667)
Overall: 213-75 (.740), upset picks: 9-15 (.375)

Update: Without Gurley, Georgia falls to Mizzou.

Upset Picks

NEW MEXICO over San Diego St
NORTHWESTERN over Minnesota
BOWLING GREEN over Ohio
NEW MEXICO ST over Troy
BOSTON COLLEGE over NC State
WESTERN MICHIGAN over Ball St
PENN ST over Michigan
AIR FORCE over Utah St
NEVADA over Colorado St
#23 MISSOURI over #13 Georgia

Upset of the Week

#3 MISSISSIPPI ST over #2 Auburn

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in italics. Non-ranked team upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this.

Week 7 Picks

BYU at UCF
Washington St at #25 STANFORD
San Diego St at NEW MEXICO
FRESNO ST at UNLV
#1 FLORIDA ST at Syracuse
#2 Auburn at #3 MISSISSIPPI ST
#3 OLE MISS at #14 Texas A&M
#9 TCU at #5 BAYLOR
North Carolina at #6 NOTRE DAME
#7 ALABAMA at Arkansas
#8 MICHIGAN ST at Purdue
USC at #10 ARIZONA
#11 OKLAHOMA vs Texas (in Dallas)
#12 OREGON at #18 UCLA
#13 GEORGIA at #23 MISSOURI
#16 OKLAHOMA ST at Kansas
#19 EAST CAROLINA at South Florida
Duke at #22 GEORGIA TECH
NORTHWESTERN at Minnesota
Indiana at IOWA
Cincinnati at MIAMI
WEST VIRGINIA at Texas Tech
Illinois at WISCONSIN
Middle Tennessee at MARSHALL
Rice at ARMY
Wyoming at HAWAI’I
Tulsa at TEMPLE
Louisiana-Monroe at KENTUCKY
BUFFALO at Eastern Michigan
BOWLING GREEN at Ohio
Miami (OH) at AKRON
ARKANSAS ST at Georgia St
UMass at KENT ST
NEW MEXICO ST at Troy
Louisville at CLEMSON
BOSTON COLLEGE at NC State
Toledo at IOWA ST
WESTERN MICHIGAN at Ball St
North Texas at UAB
Central Michigan at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Washington at CAL
Idaho at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
PENN ST at Michigan
Florida International at UTSA
Houston at MEMPHIS
LSU at Florida
UConn at TULANE
Old Dominion at UTEP
AIR FORCE at Utah St
Colorado St at NEVADA