Tag Archives: week 8 picks

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 8

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Ohio St. 1 5 2 +1
2 Alabama 2 6 1 -1
3 Penn St. 3 4 3 +2
4 Georgia 5 2 7 0
5 Clemson 10 3 4 -2
6 Oklahoma 8 7 6 0
7 Washington 7 10 5 0
8 Oklahoma St. 4 11 11 +4
9 TCU 13 1 13 -1
10 Notre Dame 12 9 8 0
11 Wisconsin 6 18 9 -2
12 Miami 11 8 15 -1
13 UCF 9 13 18 N/A
14 Auburn 14 17 10 -1
15 Stanford 15 16 12 N/A

Dropped from rankings: USC, Florida St.

WEEK 7 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-6 .538 1-0 1.000
Overall 50-31 .617 6-10 .375

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#11 USC at #13 NOTRE DAME*
Sat., Oct. 21, 4:30 PM, NBC

THREE-STAR GAMES

#19 Michigan at #2 PENN ST.
Sat., Oct. 21, 4:30 PM, ABC

IOWA ST.* at Texas Tech
Sat., Oct. 21, 9:00 AM, FS1

Louisville at FLORIDA ST.
Sat., Oct. 21, 9:00 AM, ESPN

#25 Memphis at HOUSTON*
Thu., Oct. 19, 5:00 PM, ESPN

Wake Forest at GEORGIA TECH
Sat., Oct. 21, 4:30 PM, ESPNU

#10 OKLAHOMA ST. at Texas
Sat., Oct. 21, 9:00 AM, ABC

OREGON* at UCLA
Sat., Oct. 21, 1:00 PM, PAC12

Indiana at #18 MICHIGAN ST.
Sat., Oct. 21, 12:30 PM, ABC

IOWA at Northwestern
Sat., Oct. 21, 9:00 AM, ESPN2

#20 UCF at Navy
Sat., Oct. 21, 12:30 PM, CBSSN

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

#25 Memphis at Houston
5:00 PM, ESPN

Louisiana at Arkansas St.
4:30 PM, ESPNU

FRIDAY PRIME TIME

Marshall at Middle Tennessee
4:00 PM, ESPN2

Western Kentucky at Old Dominion
3:00 PM, CBSSN

FRIDAY NIGHT

Colorado St. at New Mexico
7:15 PM, ESPN2

Air Force at Nevada
6:30 PM, CBSSN

SATURDAY MORNING

Iowa St. at Texas Tech
9:00 AM, FS1

Louisville at Florida St.
9:00 AM, ESPN

#10 Oklahoma St. at Texas
9:00 AM, ABC

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Arizona St. at Utah
12:30 PM, FS1

Oregon at UCLA 
1:00 PM, PAC12

Indiana at #18 Michigan St.
12:30 PM, ABC

#20 UCF at Navy
12:30 PM, CBSSN

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

#11 USC at #13 Notre Dame
4:30 PM, NBC

#19 Michigan at #2 Penn St.
4:30 PM, ABC

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
4:30 PM, ESPNU

SATURDAY NIGHT

Colorado at #15 Washington St.
7:45 PM, ESPN

Fresno St. at San Diego St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN

Wyoming at Boise St.
7:15 PM, ESPN2

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What to Watch – Week 8: The Top College Football Games and Viewing Guide

Tiger Stadium a.k.a. Death Valley

Tiger Stadium a.k.a. Death Valley

The games are ranked using a zero- to five-star scale. Five stars meaning that you should make every human effort possible aside from committing a crime to watch this game (it’s time your children learned to feed themselves) and zero stars meaning you probably shouldn’t waste your time.

See the second half of the post for this week’s viewing guide.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, ESPN’s, and Ed Feng’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 10-3 .769 2-0 1.000
Overall 67-25 .728 11-6 .647

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#23 Ole Miss at #25 LSU**
Sat., Oct. 22, 6:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert / Overtime Watch
Note: a composite computer analytics ranking puts Ole Miss at #8 and LSU at #9

FOUR-STAR GAMES 

#6 Texas A&M at #1 ALABAMA
Sat., Oct. 22, 12:30 PM, CBS
Composite computer top 25: #7 Texas A&M, #1 Alabama

THREE-STAR GAMES

BYU at BOISE ST.
Thu., Oct. 20, 7:15 PM, ESPN
G5 Game of the Week / Overtime Watch
Composite computer top 25: #24 Boise

#19 Utah at UCLA**
Sat., Oct. 22, 1:00 PM, FOX
Upset Alert / Overtime Watch
Composite computer top 25: Utah un-ranked

#6 Texas A&M at #1 ALABAMA
Sat., Oct. 22, 12:30 PM, CBS
Composite computer top 25: #7 Texas A&M, #1 Alabama

MIAMI* at Virginia Tech
Thu., Oct. 20, 4:00 PM, ESPN
Composite computer top 25: #13 Miami

TCU at #12 WEST VIRGINIA
Sat., Oct. 22, 12:30 PM, ABC or ESPN2
Upset Alert
Composite computer top 25: #22 West Virginia

TEXAS* at Kansas St.
Sat., Oct. 22, 9:00 AM, ESPN2
Overtime Watch

Oregon at CAL
Fri., Oct. 21, 7:30 PM, ESPN
Overtime Watch

COLORADO* at Stanford
Sat., Oct. 22, 12:00 PM, PAC12
Composite computer top 25: #17 Colorado

#10 WISCONSIN at Iowa
Sat., Oct. 22, 9:00 AM, ESPN
Composite computer top 25: #12 Wisconsin

#17 Arkansas at #21 AUBURN**
Sat., Oct. 22, 3:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert
Composite computer top 25: Arkansas un-ranked, #10 Auburn

Indiana at NORTHWESTERN
Sat., Oct. 22, 9:00 AM, BTN

SOUTH FLORIDA at Temple
Fri., Oct. 21, 4:00 PM, ESPN

NC State at #7 LOUISVILLE
Sat., Oct. 22, 9:00 AM, ABC
Composite computer top 25: #6 Louisville

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking


VIEWING GUIDE

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the games that are projected to be the most fun to watch. All times AZ.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

Miami at Virginia Tech
4:00 PM, ESPN

Troy at South Alabama
4:30 PM, ESPNU
Blowout Warning

THURSDAY NIGHT

BYU at Boise St.
7:15 PM, ESPN
G5 Game of the Week / Overtime Watch

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

South Florida at Temple
4:00 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY NIGHT

Oregon at Cal
7:30 PM, ESPN
Overtime Watch

San Jose St. at San Diego St.
7:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

Texas at K-State
9:00 AM, ESPN2
Overtime Watch

#10 Wisconsin at Iowa
9:00 AM, ESPN

Indiana at Northwestern
9:00 AM, BTN

NC State at Louisville 
9:00 AM, ABC

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#19 Utah at UCLA
1:00 PM, FOX
Upset Alert / Overtime Watch

#6 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama
12:30 PM, CBS

TCU at #12 West Virginia
12:30 PM, ABC or ESPN2
Upset Alert

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

#17 Arkansas at #21 Auburn
3:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert

#16 Oklahoma at Texas Tech
5:00 PM, FOX

#2 Ohio St. at Penn St. 
5:00 PM, ABC

Mississippi St. at Kentucky
4:30 PM, SECN

SATURDAY NIGHT

#23 Ole Miss at #25 LSU 
6:00 PM, ESPN
Game of the Week / Upset Alert / Overtime Watch

Washington St. at Arizona St. 
7:00 PM, PAC12

Fresno St. at Utah St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN
Toilet Bowl

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 8

UPDATE: The numbers gave some weird results this week. We’ll see how everything pans out.

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

The percentages below are projected “watchability” percentage scores. This is the likelihood that the game will be “good.” Five-star games will have a percentage of 90% or greater, four-star will be 75-89%, and three-stars will be 55-74%.

Last week’s picks: 9-8 (.529); Upset picks: 0-4 (.000)

Overall: 46-30 (.605); Upsets: 6-10 (.375)

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#3 Utah at USC 77% Sat. 4:30 PM FOX USC**

4-Star Game

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#15 Texas A&M at #24 Ole Miss 76% Sat. 4:00 PM ESPN Ole Miss**

3-Star Games

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#20 Cal at UCLA 73% Thu. 6:00 PM ESPN Cal***
Wisconsin at Illinois 71% Sat. 12:30 PM BTN Wisconsin
Tennessee at #8 Alabama 70% Sat. 12:30 PM CBS Bama
Western Kentucky at #5 LSU 70% Sat. 4:00 PM ESPNU LSU
Washington at #10 Stanford 70% Sat. 7:30 PM ESPN Stanford
Northwestern at Nebraska 67% Sat. 9:00 AM ESPN2 Nebraska
#23 Duke at Virginia Tech 65% Sat. 12:30 PM ESPNU Duke***
#9 Florida St. at Georgia Tech 64% Sat. 4:00 PM ESPN2 FSU
Georgia Southern at Appalachian St. 61% Thu. 4:30 PM ESPNU App St.
Boston College at Louisville 61% Sat. 9:30 AM ESPN3 (Streaming) Louisville
Auburn at Arkansas 61% Sat. 9:00 AM SECN Arkansas
#22 Temple at East Carolina 58% Thu. 4:00 PM ESPN2 Temple***
Missouri at Vanderbilt 56% Sat. 1:00 PM SECN Vanderbilt*
#6 Clemson at Miami (FL) 56% Sat. 9:00 AM ABC Clemson

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 8 Picks

Last week’s results: 35-15 (.700), upset picks: 4-7 (.364)
Overall: 248-90 (.734), upset picks: 13-22 (.371)

Upset Pick of the Week

#5 NOTRE DAME over #2 Florida St

Upset Picks

VIRGINIA TECH over Pittsburgh
TULSA over South Florida
UTSA over Louisiana Tech
WESTERN MICHIGAN over Bowling Green
WYOMING over San Jose St
HAWAI’I over San Diego St

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in italics. Non-ranked team upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this.

#20 UTAH at Oregon St
VIRGINIA TECH at Pittsburgh
Fresno St at BOISE ST
Temple at HOUSTON
South Florida at TULSA
Tulane at UCF
SYRACUSE at Wake Forest
#5 NOTRE DAME at #2 Florida St
Tennessee at #3 OLE MISS
#4 BAYLOR at West Virginia
#21 Texas A&M at #7 ALABAMA
#8 MICHIGAN ST at Indiana
Washington at #9 OREGON
#10 GEORGIA at Arkansas
#14 K-State at #11 OKLAHOMA
#15 Oklahoma St at #12 TCU
Rutgers at #13 OHIO ST
#23 Stanford at #17 ARIZONA ST
#19 NEBRASKA at Northwestern
Colorado at #22 USC
#24 CLEMSON at Boston College
#25 MARSHALL at Florida International
Iowa at MARYLAND
Purdue at MINNESOTA
WESTERN KENTUCKY at Florida Atlantic
UTSA at Louisiana Tech
Virginia at DUKE
AKRON at Ohio
WESTERN MICHIGAN at Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan at UMASS
Appalachian St at TROY
UCLA at California
New Mexico at AIR FORCE
ARMY at Kent St
Ball St at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
UAB at Middle Tennessee
NC State at LOUISVILLE
CINCINNATI at SMU
Kansas at TEXAS TECH
San Jose St at WYOMING
New Mexico St at IDAHO
Miami (OH) at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Missouri at FLORIDA
Southern Miss at NORTH TEXAS
Utah St at COLORADO ST
GEORGIA TECH at North Carolina
Georgia St at SOUTH ALABAMA
Kentucky at LSU
Iowa St at TEXAS
Nevada at BYU
HAWAI’I at San Diego St