Tag Archives: week 9 picks

Weekend Planning Guide – College Football Week 9

Ohio Stadium aka “The Shoe”

Advanced Stats Composite Rankings

RANK TEAM S&P+ FEI FPI Change
1 Alabama 2 5 1 +1
2 Ohio St. 1 6 2 -1
3 Penn St. 3 7 3
4 Georgia 4 1 8
5 Notre Dame 10 3 5 +5
6 Clemson 13 2 4 -1
7 Washington 5 9 6
8 TCU 6 4 12 +1
9 Oklahoma 14 8 7 -3
10 Oklahoma St. 8 12 11 -2
11 Wisconsin 7 15 10
12 Auburn 12 13 9 +2
13 Miami 11 10 14 -1
14 UCF 9 11 19 -1
15 Stanford 16 18 13

WEEK 8 PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 7-4 .636 2-2 .500
Overall 57-35 .620 8-12 .400

All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

See How the Games are Rated to learn more about…how the games are rated.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#2 Penn St. at #6 OHIO ST.*
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:30 PM, FOX

FOUR-STAR GAMES

LOUISVILLE at Wake Forest
Sat., Oct. 28, 9:20 AM, ACCN

#4 TCU at #25 Iowa St.
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:30 PM, ESPN2 (ABC)

#15 WASHINGTON ST. at Arizona
Sat., Oct. 28, 6:30 PM, PAC12

THREE-STAR GAMES

#14 NC State at #9 NOTRE DAME
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:30 PM, NBC

MISSISSIPPI ST. at Texas A&M
Sat., Oct. 28, 4:15 PM, ESPN

#21 USC at ARIZONA ST.*
Sat., Oct. 28, 7:45 PM, ESPN

UTAH at Oregon
Sat., Oct. 28, 2:45 PM, PAC12

Georgia Tech at #7 CLEMSON
Sat., Oct. 28, 5:00 PM, ESPN2 (ABC)

#11 OKLAHOMA ST. at #22 West Virginia
Sat., Oct. 28, 9:00 AM, ABC

Houston at #17 SOUTH FLORIDA
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:45 PM, ESPNU

#16 MICHIGAN ST. at Northwestern
Sat., Oct. 28, 12:30 PM, ESPN

Texas Tech at #10 OKLAHOMA
Sat., Oct. 28, 5:00 PM, ABC (ESPN2)

Minnesota at IOWA
Sat., Oct. 28, 3:30 PM, FS1

FLORIDA ST. at Boston College
Fri., Oct. 27, 5:00 PM, ESPN

*Upset pick


What I’m going to watch…

THURSDAY

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois
4:00 PM, CBSSN

South Alabama at Georgia St.
4:30 PM, ESPNU

#20 Stanford at Oregon St.
6:00 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY

Florida St. at Boston College
5:00 PM, ESPN

Tulane at #24 Memphis
5:00 PM, CBSSN

Tulsa at SMU
6:00 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

Louisville at Wake Forest
9:20 AM, ACCN

#11 Oklahoma St. at #22 West Virginia
9:00 AM, ABC

Rutgers at Michigan
9:00 AM, BTN

SATURDAY MIDDAY

#2 Penn St. at #6 Ohio St.
12:30 PM, FOX

#4 TCU at #25 Iowa St. 
12:30 PM, ESPN2 (ABC)

#14 NC State at #9 Notre Dame
12:30 PM, NBC

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

Utah at Oregon
2:45 PM, PAC12

Minnesota at Iowa 
3:30 PM, FS1

SATURDAY PRIME TIME

Mississippi St. at Texas A&M
4:15 PM, ESPN

Georgia Tech at #7 Clemson
5:00 PM, ESPN2 (ABC)

Texas Tech at #10 Oklahoma
5:00 PM, ABC (ESPN2)

SATURDAY NIGHT

#21 USC at Arizona St.
7:45 PM, ESPN

#15 Washington St. at Arizona
6:30 PM, PAC12

Boise St. at Utah St.
7:00 PM, CBSSN

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What to Watch – Week 9: The Best of This Week’s College Football Games

Vaught-Hemingway stadium

Vaught-Hemingway stadium

The games are ranked using a zero- to five-star scale. Five stars meaning that you should make every human effort possible aside from committing a crime to watch this game (it’s time your children learned to feed themselves) and zero stars meaning you probably shouldn’t waste your time.

See the second half of the post for this week’s viewing guide.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, ESPN’s, and Ed Feng’s advanced stats ranking systems.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 10-4 .714 3-3 .500
Overall 77-29 .726 14-9 .609

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ. Picks in CAPS.

GAME OF THE WEEK 

#15 AUBURN at Ole Miss
Sat., Oct. 29, 4:15 PM, SECN
Upset Alert
Note: a composite ranking using the four systems mentioned above puts Auburn at (12) and Ole Miss at (11)

THREE-STAR GAMES

#7 Nebraska at #11 WISCONSIN**
Sat., Oct. 29, 4:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert
Composite computer top 25: (17) Nebraska vs. (9) Wisconsin

UPDATE: Switched my pick to Pitt.

#25 Virginia Tech at PITT*
Thu., Oct. 27, 4:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert / Overtime Watch

#3 CLEMSON at #12 Florida St.
Sat., Oct. 29, 5:00 PM, ABC

Texas Tech at TCU
Sat., Oct. 29, 12:30 PM, ESPN2

#10 WEST VIRGINIA at Oklahoma St.
Sat., Oct. 29, 9:00 AM, FOX
Upset Alert
Composite computer top 25: (24) West Virginia

#22 Navy at SOUTH FLORIDA**
Fri., Oct. 28, 4:00 PM, ESPN2
G5 Game of the Week / Upset Alert
Composite computer top 25: Navy unranked

MIAMI at Notre Dame
Sat., Oct. 29, 12:30 PM, NBC

Cal at USC
Thu., Oct. 27, 7:30 PM, ESPN
Composite computer top 25: (19) USC

Duke at GEORGIA TECH
Sat., Oct. 29, 9:00 AM, WatchESPN (streaming)

#8 BAYLOR at Texas
Sat., Oct. 29, 12:30 PM, ABC
Composite computer top 25: (14) Baylor

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking


VIEWING GUIDE

The top three games during each time slot are listed below starting with the games that are projected to be the most fun to watch. All times AZ.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

#25 Virginia Tech at Pitt
4:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert / Overtime Watch

Appalachian St. at Georgia Southern
4:30 PM, ESPNU

Ohio at Toledo
4:30 PM, CBSSN

THURSDAY NIGHT

Cal at USC
7:30 PM, ESPN

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

#22 Navy at South Florida
4:00 PM, ESPN2
G5 Game of the Week / Upset Alert

San Diego St. at Utah St.
5:00 PM, CBSSN

FRIDAY NIGHT

Air Force at Fresno St.
7:30 PM, ESPN2

SATURDAY MORNING

#10 West Virginia at Oklahoma St. 
9:00 AM, FOX
Upset Alert

Duke at Georgia Tech
9:00 AM, WatchESPN (streaming)

UCF at Houston
9:00 AM, ESPNU

SATURDAY MIDDAY

Texas Tech at TCU
12:30 PM, ESPN2

Miami at Notre Dame
12:30 PM, NBC

#8 Baylor at Texas
12:30 PM, ABC

Maryland at Indiana 
12:30 PM, ESPNU

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

#15 Auburn at Ole Miss 
4:15 PM, SECN
Game of the Week / Upset Alert

#7 Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin 
4:00 PM, ESPN
Upset Alert

#3 Clemson at #12 Florida St. 
5:00 PM, ABC

SATURDAY NIGHT

Stanford at Arizona 
8:00 PM, FS1

Washington St. at Oregon St.
7:45 PM, ESPN2

UNLV at San Jose St.
7:30 PM, CBSSN
Toilet Bowl

Plan Accordingly: Top Games – Week 9

On paper, this looks to be the weakest week of the year so far. There are no five- OR four-star games. That usually means we’ll see some wild upsets and finishes.

Games are ranked like recruits: 5 stars, 4 stars, and 3 stars. Just like in recruiting, 2-star and 1-star games won’t be given much attention.

Games are ranked using a super-scientific system comparing the overall quality of the two teams and the closeness of the match-up. The quality of each team is found using Brian Fremeau’s, Bill Connelly’s, and ESPN’s advanced stats ranking systems.

The percentages below are projected “watchability” percentage scores. This is the likelihood that the game will be “good.” Five-star games will have a percentage of 90% or greater, four-star will be 75-89%, and three-stars will be 55-74%.

PICK RESULTS

All Games Pct. Upset Picks Pct.
Last Week 13-3 .813 3-1 .750
Overall 59-33 .641 9-11 .450

Without further ado: the games. All times AZ.

GAME OF THE WEEK

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
West Virginia at #5 TCU 73% Thu. 4:30 PM FS1 TCU

3-Star Games

GAME % DAY TIME TV PICK
#11 Florida vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) 73% Sat. 12:30 PM CBS UF
North Carolina at #23 Pitt 71% Thu. 4:00 PM ESPN UNC**
USC at Cal 70% Sat. 12:00 PM FOX USC
Oregon at Arizona St. 67% Thu. 7:30 PM ESPN ASU
Illinois at Penn St. 67% Sat. 9:00 AM ESPN2 PSU
Virginia Tech at Boston College 61% Sat. 9:30 AM ESPN3 (Streaming) BC*
#12 Oklahoma St at Texas Tech 59% Sat. 12:30 PM ESPN OSU
#3 Clemson at NC State 56% Sat. 12:30 PM ABC Clemson
Miami at #22 Duke 56% Sat. 4:00 PM ESPNU Duke

*Upset picks
**Vegas favorite despite lower ranking
***Vegas underdog despite higher ranking

Who’s Going to Win? – Week 9 Picks

Last week’s results: 33-19 (.635), upset picks: 1-6 (.143)
Overall: 281-109 (.721), upset picks: 14-28 (.333)

Upset Pick of the Week

WASHINGTON ST over #15 Arizona

Upset Pick

GEORGIA TECH over Pittsburgh

Picks in BOLD. Upsets in ITALICS. Non-ranked team upsets are based on betting lines at the time of writing this.

ARKANSAS ST at Louisiana
UConn at #18 EAST CAROLINA
MIAMI at Virginia Tech
#6 OREGON at California
South Florida at CINCINNATI
Troy at SOUTH ALABAMA
BYU at BOISE ST
#1 MISSISSIPPI ST at Kentucky
#3 OLE MISS at #24 LSU
#4 ALABAMA at Tennessee
South Carolina at #5 AUBURN
Michigan at #8 MICHIGAN ST
Texas Tech at #10 TCU
Texas at #11 KANSAS ST
#13 OHIO ST at Penn St
#14 ARIZONA ST at Washington
#15 Arizona at WASHINGTON ST
Rutgers at #16 NEBRASKA
#20 USC at #19 UTAH*
Syracuse at #21 CLEMSON
#22 WEST VIRGINIA* at Oklahoma St
Florida Atlantic at #23 MARSHALL
#25 UCLA at Colorado
UAB at ARKANSAS
MEMPHIS at SMU
North Carolina at VIRGINIA
MINNESOTA at Illinois
Maryland at WISCONSIN
North Texas at RICE
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at Eastern Michigan
San Jose St at NAVY
Ohio at WESTERN MICHIGAN
UMass at TOLEDO
AKRON at Ball St
GEORGIA SOUTHERN at Georgia St
Kent St at MIAMI-OHIO
GEORGIA TECH at Pittsburgh
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at Buffalo
Oregon St at STANFORD
LOUISIANA TECH at Southern Miss
BOSTON COLLEGE at Wake Forest
Vanderbilt at MISSOURI
Old Dominion at WESTERN KENTUCKY
UNLV at UTAH ST
Temple at UCF
Wyoming at COLORADO ST
UTEP at UTSA
Texas St at LOUISIANA-MONROE
NEVADA at Hawai’i

*Underdog despite higher ranking